With only five players (excluding special teams) age 30 years or older, the Texans have immense potential. Since 2003, they’ve drafted four players to be voted to the All Pro team—Andre Johnson, Jerome Mathis, Mario Williams, and DeMeco Ryans. Add to that this year’s performance of rookie linebacker Brian Cushing out of USC: 128 tackles (first among NFL rookies), 4 sacks (second highest for NFL rookies; first in AFC), 4 interceptions (the only rookie to have more is Buffalo’s Jairus Byrd, a free safety), and 2 forced fumbles (tied for second among NFL rookies), and the Texans have compiled some of the most impressive draft histories in recent memory. In 2009, they started three rookies, and two others have played in every game this season. In 2006, we scoffed at their passing off Reggie Bush for Mario Williams. Well I ask you, who’s laughing now? The Texans have one of the youngest teams in the NFL and have nowhere to go but up.
Quarterback Matt Schaub has shown himself Pro Bowl worthy for the first time this year. He has thrown for more yards than any QB through week 15, is third in completion percentage behind only Drew Brees and Peyton Manning (elite company, I’d say), and is one of only three quarterbacks to throw more than 58 passes of 20+ yards and less than 15 interceptions. He has missed nine games due to injury in the past two years, but he’s only 28 years old (Romo is 29, Brees is 30, Brady is 32, Manning is 33) and has a bright future ahead of him. I predict him to be the best quarterback in the NFL in five years. Brees, Brady, and Manning will be washed-up by then; Roethlisberger (27) will not amount to much in the next few years, as he will continue to fight injuries—he’s only started 16 games once in his career and averages 40 sacks per season; Romo and Eli have yet to prove themselves, and could take a few more years to become top-tier quarterbacks; right now, only Phillip Rivers (28), Jay Cutler (26), and Matt Ryan (24) could possibly challenge Schaub in the coming years as NFL’s top quarterback.
But no one will have better weapons at wide receiver than the Texans in the coming years. Andre Johnson has finally come into his own after being drafted in the first round of the 2003 Draft. He has the most receiving yards of any WR by almost 200 yards and is the second-biggest deep threat after Philly’s Desean Jackson. Houston has nine players who have caught at least 15 passes this season, none of whom have played in the NFL for more than 7 years. The Pats have seven, who together average 8 years experience. You might be thinking that experience is a good thing, and it is. For the short term. Kevin Faulk is a great weapon for the Pats…right now. How great will he be in three years? He’ll probably be out of the NFL. The Texans, on the other hand, have a solid receiving corps to count for the next several years. Matt Schaub and the Houston offense will continue to put up big numbers and will continue to win games.
There’s no question as to where the strength of this Texans team is: it’s the passing game. It’s not the defense and it’s not the run game. As far as defense goes, the Texans aren’t great, but aren’t bad either. They have a reliable defense that gives up a little more than 20 points and 325 yards per game, right in the middle of the pack for the NFL. Super Bowls are no longer won with stellar defenses; it’s becoming more of an offense-driven league every year. So I don’t think much focus should be put on the Houston D. They do, however, need to focus on the run game. In 2009, only the Colts run for fewer yards. This is especially crucial in the red zone. Of all the teams with over 350 points this season, the Texans have the fewest run TDs, which hurts them most in the red zone. What number troubles me is that the Texans are 11th in total points this season, yet they are 5th in total yards. This tells me that their red zone game sucks. Even though they are gaining tons of yards, they can struggle to point enough points on the board. Their 52.7% TD conversion in the red zone is not going to cut it if they have Super Bowl aspirations. Only one 11-win team has a lower red zone conversion percentage, the Eagles. Indy and New Orleans together have a 62% conversion rate, and that is why they were both undefeated entering week 14.
The Texans will be a playoff contender for the next several years, and have Super Bowl potential. But they’re not there yet. If they really want to go somewhere other than a 9-7 season, they’ll need to get a new coach, work on their run game, maintain their electric passing game, and continue to have successful defense-centric (less risky) drafts.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Saturday, December 26, 2009
SOTD: Large Market Teams
There are 39 professional sports teams in NY/NJ, LA, BOS, CHI, DET, Pennsylvania, and Texas, across the four major sports of NHL, MLB, NBA, and NFL. There are a total of 122 professional sports teams in those four leagues. Since 1990, there has been a total of 76 championships, and one of those 39 teams have appeared in 60 of them (79%). In addition, they have a combined 78 appearances in the championships between them. The 39 teams lucky enough to be in such a large market account for 31.9% of all the professional teams in America. However, at the same time, they have more appearances in league championships than the other 83 teams do combined. WHat does this mean? The influx of money in professional sports, and the concentration of that money into major markets have left small market teams in the dust. Teams in Kansas City, Florida, New Orleans, or anywhere in the West outside of LA don't stand a chance anymore. Sure, they may have a run once in a while thanks to a bit of luck and a great star (Saints, Colts, Marlins, Lightning, Rays, and Rockies), but in the long run, they won't really make a dent in their respective sports. The Royals (Kansas City), Seahawks (Seattle), Grizzlies (Memphis), and Wild (Minnesota) will continue to be the punching bag of bigger and better teams, a game on the schedule they will always be able to mark down as a win before the season even starts.
The Minnesota Wild actually proves this best. Minnesota and the Northern part of America is hockey town: the Minnesota Golden Gophers, Wisconsin Badgers, and Michigan Wolverines are always contendors for the NCAA hockey championship. Why? Because kids grow up playing hockey there, and want to go to school close to home. Youth and high school hockey is HUGE up there, and the high school stars go play for the school they've rooted for throughout their childhood: usually the ones closest to their home. But as soon as money enters the picture, the story changes. If we were to follow the same pattern, the Minnesota college stars would want to play for the Minnesota Wild or the Winnipeg Jets: close to home. But how have these teams fared? Well, The Wild haven't been the Stanley Cup since their inception in 2000, and the Winnipeg Jets were forced to relocate to Phoenix. Big money teams like Detroit and Chicago can pay players more because they can sell more tickets, sell more merchandise, and attract more sponsers.
And until the leagues make some major revenue sharing moves or something else extraodinary, this will continue to be the case. Its been 12 years since we've had a World Series between two teams not from Chicago, Boston, Philly, or NYC. Its been six years for the NFL, three for the NHL; and if you throw in Texas, the NBA has NEVER had a finals between two small market teams.
The Minnesota Wild actually proves this best. Minnesota and the Northern part of America is hockey town: the Minnesota Golden Gophers, Wisconsin Badgers, and Michigan Wolverines are always contendors for the NCAA hockey championship. Why? Because kids grow up playing hockey there, and want to go to school close to home. Youth and high school hockey is HUGE up there, and the high school stars go play for the school they've rooted for throughout their childhood: usually the ones closest to their home. But as soon as money enters the picture, the story changes. If we were to follow the same pattern, the Minnesota college stars would want to play for the Minnesota Wild or the Winnipeg Jets: close to home. But how have these teams fared? Well, The Wild haven't been the Stanley Cup since their inception in 2000, and the Winnipeg Jets were forced to relocate to Phoenix. Big money teams like Detroit and Chicago can pay players more because they can sell more tickets, sell more merchandise, and attract more sponsers.
And until the leagues make some major revenue sharing moves or something else extraodinary, this will continue to be the case. Its been 12 years since we've had a World Series between two teams not from Chicago, Boston, Philly, or NYC. Its been six years for the NFL, three for the NHL; and if you throw in Texas, the NBA has NEVER had a finals between two small market teams.
The Houston Texans Will Make The Playoffs
The Texans will make the playoffs because they will finish 9-7. Here’s why:
Their next two games (at Miami, vs. NE) look intimidating, but really they aren’t.
Miami will be playing a quarterback in his first year as starter, Chad Henne, who doesn’t have the big game experience that is necessary in a game like this. He’s been intercepted eight times in his last four games, while throwing only four TDs. Accordingly, Miami has had to rely on their running game all season, and rank fourth in the NFL in rushing yards. The Texans, on the other hand, have allowed 100 rushing yards only once in their last eleven games, and the run-heavy Dolphins will have trouble gaining yards against an ever-improving Texans defense. The game against NE is an easy one. The Pats will be coming off a playoff-clinching win against the Jaguars, and should be resting some of their key offensive starters. But what’s more important is the Texans’ passing attack. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are becoming one of the biggest combos in the game, and will tear apart the young Patriots secondary.
However, the Texans will need a little help from their fellow AFC contenders. There are still seven teams fighting for the two AFC wild card spots. Since Houston will be winning out, the other four 7-7 teams will only have to lose once, and they all will. Jacksonville will lose in New England in Week 16; the Dolphins will lose against Houston in Week 16; the Jets will lose their two remaining games in Indianapolis and against Cincinnati; and the Steelers will lose in Week 17 in Miami. Baltimore will lose to the Steelers and the Raiders, thus finishing the season 8-8. This sounds a little crazy, but stick with me. Pittsburgh lost to the Ravens by just three points in Week 12, and Pittsburgh will come back with a vengeance to win in Week 16. Oakland has won five games this season, four of which came against playoff contenders (Philly, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Denver). They will pull off another upset in Week 17 with Bruce Gradkowski back from a knee injury that sidelined him in Denver, and with another big game from Michael Bush, who had 133 rushing yards last week against Denver.
The 2010 postseason will be the first in franchise history for the Houston Texans (expansion team in 2002), and will secure the head coaching job of Gary Kubiak for at least another season.
Their next two games (at Miami, vs. NE) look intimidating, but really they aren’t.
Miami will be playing a quarterback in his first year as starter, Chad Henne, who doesn’t have the big game experience that is necessary in a game like this. He’s been intercepted eight times in his last four games, while throwing only four TDs. Accordingly, Miami has had to rely on their running game all season, and rank fourth in the NFL in rushing yards. The Texans, on the other hand, have allowed 100 rushing yards only once in their last eleven games, and the run-heavy Dolphins will have trouble gaining yards against an ever-improving Texans defense. The game against NE is an easy one. The Pats will be coming off a playoff-clinching win against the Jaguars, and should be resting some of their key offensive starters. But what’s more important is the Texans’ passing attack. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are becoming one of the biggest combos in the game, and will tear apart the young Patriots secondary.
However, the Texans will need a little help from their fellow AFC contenders. There are still seven teams fighting for the two AFC wild card spots. Since Houston will be winning out, the other four 7-7 teams will only have to lose once, and they all will. Jacksonville will lose in New England in Week 16; the Dolphins will lose against Houston in Week 16; the Jets will lose their two remaining games in Indianapolis and against Cincinnati; and the Steelers will lose in Week 17 in Miami. Baltimore will lose to the Steelers and the Raiders, thus finishing the season 8-8. This sounds a little crazy, but stick with me. Pittsburgh lost to the Ravens by just three points in Week 12, and Pittsburgh will come back with a vengeance to win in Week 16. Oakland has won five games this season, four of which came against playoff contenders (Philly, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Denver). They will pull off another upset in Week 17 with Bruce Gradkowski back from a knee injury that sidelined him in Denver, and with another big game from Michael Bush, who had 133 rushing yards last week against Denver.
The 2010 postseason will be the first in franchise history for the Houston Texans (expansion team in 2002), and will secure the head coaching job of Gary Kubiak for at least another season.
Red Sox Offseason
SIGN
Mike Cameron -37 years old
-Never hit better than .275
-7 for 10 stealing in 2009 (fewest steals in 13 year career)
-Hit 20+ HR last 4 years
-Played 140+ games 10 of past 12 years, low injury risk
-2 Golden Gloves, 1 All-Star
-Against Yankees: .236 BA
Jeremy Hermida-26 years old
- Strong rookie season (.296 BA, .870 OPS)
-Benched in September for rookie Cameron Maybin
-.189 batting against lefties (.282 against righties) in ‘09
-1st round pick of 2002 draft
- 0 Gold Gloves, 0 All-Stars
-Against Yankees: 4-18, 5 SO
Marco Scutaro-34 years old
-Career year last year (.282 BA, .378 OBP, 1.2 BB: SO ratio)
-No power (50 HR in 840 game career, career .384 SLG)
-Solid fielder, can play virtually any position on the field
-6 year veteran (all in AL)
-0 Gold Gloves, 0 All-Star
-Against Yankees: .242 BA
LOSE
Jason Bay-32 years old
-100 RBI, 30HR 4 of 6 years in MLB
-Rookie of the Year in 2004
-3rd in HR, 2nd in RBI, Silver Slugger in 2009
-Accounted for 25% of runs scored by Red Sox in 2009
-Played 145+ in 5 of 6 years in MLB (162 in ’05)
-0 Gold Gloves, 3 All-Stars
- Against Yankees: .324 BA, .559 SLG
You do the math. Alex Gonzalez is gone, but Scutaro is a competent replacement. Let's face it, Gonzo may have been the fan favorite and we all wanted to see him stay, but Scutaro is just as good, and younger. We signed him for two years, with an option for the third year. Don't forget about Lowry either. If he stays healthy, he's a good person to have waiting in the wings. But then there's Jason Bay. Bay probably didn't add so much defense for the Red Sox in '09, but there's no way the outfield we have ligned up now (Ellsbury, Drew, Cameron/Hermida) will be able to replace what Bay meant for this offense--especially if Ortiz has another down year. Bay averages 33 HR and 107 RBI a year. Last year, no one else on the Sox had either 33 HR or 100 RBI.
The addition of John Lackey makes the Sox rotation more dangerous than any other in Major League baseball. We have three shut-down starters, there's no doubt about that. But our lineup really has virtually no power threats, and one or two solid bats: Youkilis, Pedroia, and maybe Papi. The Yankees have A-Rod, Jeter, Texeira, as well as Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano, as well as two Cy-Young candidates in Sabathia and Burnett. For the Sox lineup, Ellsbury will continue to pose a threat on the basepaths, but his .350 OBP won't cut it as a leadoff hitter. Lowell is question mark: he could have a great offensive year, but I doubt his ability to touch his toes anymore. He's the oldest 35 year-old I've ever seen, and is one-year removed from a major hip surgery. The fact that Boston brass tried to get rid of once this offseason (trade to Rangers was called off after his physical) tells you the Red Sox doubt his potential to for another .290 season., a BA only four Red Sox topped last season. Pedroia, Youkilis, and Martinez will have solid years, but don't be surprised if their numbers dip a little with the loss of Bay's protection in the lineup. Like it or not, J.D. will continue to be J.D. He'll bat around .265 with tons of walks and tons of strikeouts, but don't expect anything more.
The Yankees didn't make any big splashes this offseason, but they didn't need to. They won the World Series last year and have virtually the same roster. Yeah, they'll probably end up losing Damon, but he's past his prime anyway. Plus the Steinbrenners will probably end up signing Mark DeRosa or some other bat that can at least replace Damon. They made a couple minor moves, like sending Melky Cabrera to the Braves for pitcher Javier Vasquez, which will probably put Joba back in the 'pen with some scrub named Mariano Rivera.
Mike Cameron -37 years old
-Never hit better than .275
-7 for 10 stealing in 2009 (fewest steals in 13 year career)
-Hit 20+ HR last 4 years
-Played 140+ games 10 of past 12 years, low injury risk
-2 Golden Gloves, 1 All-Star
-Against Yankees: .236 BA
Jeremy Hermida-26 years old
- Strong rookie season (.296 BA, .870 OPS)
-Benched in September for rookie Cameron Maybin
-.189 batting against lefties (.282 against righties) in ‘09
-1st round pick of 2002 draft
- 0 Gold Gloves, 0 All-Stars
-Against Yankees: 4-18, 5 SO
Marco Scutaro-34 years old
-Career year last year (.282 BA, .378 OBP, 1.2 BB: SO ratio)
-No power (50 HR in 840 game career, career .384 SLG)
-Solid fielder, can play virtually any position on the field
-6 year veteran (all in AL)
-0 Gold Gloves, 0 All-Star
-Against Yankees: .242 BA
LOSE
Jason Bay-32 years old
-100 RBI, 30HR 4 of 6 years in MLB
-Rookie of the Year in 2004
-3rd in HR, 2nd in RBI, Silver Slugger in 2009
-Accounted for 25% of runs scored by Red Sox in 2009
-Played 145+ in 5 of 6 years in MLB (162 in ’05)
-0 Gold Gloves, 3 All-Stars
- Against Yankees: .324 BA, .559 SLG
You do the math. Alex Gonzalez is gone, but Scutaro is a competent replacement. Let's face it, Gonzo may have been the fan favorite and we all wanted to see him stay, but Scutaro is just as good, and younger. We signed him for two years, with an option for the third year. Don't forget about Lowry either. If he stays healthy, he's a good person to have waiting in the wings. But then there's Jason Bay. Bay probably didn't add so much defense for the Red Sox in '09, but there's no way the outfield we have ligned up now (Ellsbury, Drew, Cameron/Hermida) will be able to replace what Bay meant for this offense--especially if Ortiz has another down year. Bay averages 33 HR and 107 RBI a year. Last year, no one else on the Sox had either 33 HR or 100 RBI.
The addition of John Lackey makes the Sox rotation more dangerous than any other in Major League baseball. We have three shut-down starters, there's no doubt about that. But our lineup really has virtually no power threats, and one or two solid bats: Youkilis, Pedroia, and maybe Papi. The Yankees have A-Rod, Jeter, Texeira, as well as Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano, as well as two Cy-Young candidates in Sabathia and Burnett. For the Sox lineup, Ellsbury will continue to pose a threat on the basepaths, but his .350 OBP won't cut it as a leadoff hitter. Lowell is question mark: he could have a great offensive year, but I doubt his ability to touch his toes anymore. He's the oldest 35 year-old I've ever seen, and is one-year removed from a major hip surgery. The fact that Boston brass tried to get rid of once this offseason (trade to Rangers was called off after his physical) tells you the Red Sox doubt his potential to for another .290 season., a BA only four Red Sox topped last season. Pedroia, Youkilis, and Martinez will have solid years, but don't be surprised if their numbers dip a little with the loss of Bay's protection in the lineup. Like it or not, J.D. will continue to be J.D. He'll bat around .265 with tons of walks and tons of strikeouts, but don't expect anything more.
The Yankees didn't make any big splashes this offseason, but they didn't need to. They won the World Series last year and have virtually the same roster. Yeah, they'll probably end up losing Damon, but he's past his prime anyway. Plus the Steinbrenners will probably end up signing Mark DeRosa or some other bat that can at least replace Damon. They made a couple minor moves, like sending Melky Cabrera to the Braves for pitcher Javier Vasquez, which will probably put Joba back in the 'pen with some scrub named Mariano Rivera.
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