Saints: 28
Colts: 24
Sunday, January 31, 2010
A Look into Super Bowl XLIV
Saints have an advantage over the Colts in that they…
1. Have a balanced offensive game. At every position, the Saints have a legitimate threat. Marquis Colston, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, and Jeremy Shockey are all capable of a big play as long as Drew Brees has the ball.
2. Are great against the long ball. Indy lives and dies by the ability to score through the air. They were third in passing touchdowns this season, while averaging less than one rushing touchdown per game. The Saints allowed less than one pass TD per game this season, and were 2nd in the NFC. If the Colts can’t throw to the end zone, they’re in trouble.
3. Have a strong backfield. Two safeties on the Saints were elected to the Pro Bowl, and the team was third in the NFL in interceptions this season. Opposing quarterbacks average a 58.2% completion percentage against the Saints, which is 2nd in the NFC. In games where Payton Manning has completed 58.2% or less of his passes, his record is 17-23.
4. Get to the quarterback. They may not register tons of sacks, but they punish quarterbacks. The Saints D-Line was on a mission last week to put Brett Favre on his back, and they did just that. They’ll do the same to Peyton Manning.
5. Have the ability to stop the Colts in the Red Zone. While both teams are in the top five in Red Zone scoring percentage, the Saints were third in the NFL with a 42.2% opponent Red Zone scoring percentage, while the Colts were not even in the top ten, behind the Raiders and Browns.
6. Can force turnovers. Only two teams this season turned the ball over less than the Vikings, and the Saints still forced five turnovers. As astonishing as that might seem, Gregg Williams has made a point to strip the ball and force interceptions: the Saints rank first in takeaways per game this season (3rd in interceptions, 1st in opponent fumbles lost). In 17 playoff games, Manning has thrown 18 interceptions, and the Saints certainly have the ability to take advantage of that.
Colts have an advantage over the Saints in that they…
1. Have the smartest quarterback to ever play the game. Peyton Manning is, in all sense of the word, a genius. With two weeks to prepare against a Saints defense that thrives on the ability to give opposing offenses different looks, who knows what Manning will have up his sleeve?
2. Are more experienced. In every roster category, they have at least one Super Bowl champion—quarterback: P. Manning; running back; J. Addai, o-line: J. Saturday; wide receiver: R. Wayne; tight end: Dallas Clark; d-line: D. Freeney; linebacker: G. Brackett; backfield: A. Bethea; special teams: Adam Vinatieri
3. Rarely turn the ball over. This year, the Colts were seventh in the NFL, averaging 1.4 givaways per game. The Saints rely heavily on getting key fumbles and interceptions, as evidenced by their win over the Vikings last week, where their five forced turnovers decidedly decided the game, and the Colts are certainly above-average when it comes to not turning the ball over.
4. They have a very strong D-line in Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. I don’t know how effective they’ll be if Freeney’s ankle is bothering him on Sunday (and Brees has one of the cleanest jerseys in the NFL), but they’ll definitely have an impact on the game plan of Sean Peyton and the Saints.
5. Are not playing in the Superdome. I think the NFC championship difference maker was the home field advantage for New Orleans. Outside in Miami, Manning will be able to communicate a whole lot better than if they were in the Superdome.
6. PEYTON MANNING. Enough said.
Saturday, January 23, 2010
One Last Playoff Look
If my underdogs are going to win this weekend, here's how it will go down.
In order for the Jets to win...
1. Mark Sanchez will have to be on fire in the red zone. He'll have to throw for at least two TDs.
2. The whole NY secondary, not just Darrelle Revis will have to hold Peyton Manning to a completion percentage under 65%.
In order for the Vikings to win...
1. They will have to win the turnover battle.
2. Adrian Peterson will have to average 4+ yards per carry.
In order for the Jets to win...
1. Mark Sanchez will have to be on fire in the red zone. He'll have to throw for at least two TDs.
2. The whole NY secondary, not just Darrelle Revis will have to hold Peyton Manning to a completion percentage under 65%.
In order for the Vikings to win...
1. They will have to win the turnover battle.
2. Adrian Peterson will have to average 4+ yards per carry.
Monday, January 18, 2010
SOTD: Teams Left in NFL
Of the four remaining teams in the playoffs...
- Three teams play home games in a dome
- Two teams have rookie head coaches
- Three quarterbacks had regular season passer ratings of over 100 and completion percentages higher than 68%
- Two quarterbacks were top 5 draft picks; two were 2nd round picks
- Four quarterbacks were born in Southern states (Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, SoCal)
Conference Championships Predictions
This one’s a no brainer for me. Here’s five reasons the Saints will beat the Vikings.
1.Drew Brees against a Minnesota pass defense ranked 24th in opponent passer rating. Come on, you do the math. Another reason I have reason to reason Brees will have a big game: Drew Brees averages 310 pass yards per game in eight home games this season. In their past four away games (GB, ARI, CAR, CHI), the Vikings have allowed an average of 286 pass yards. Brees will tear it up against a sub-par Vikings secondary.
2.The key to the Vikings’ win against the Cowboys was the pressure they got on Tony Romo (6 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 1 interception). In home games the past two years, Drew Brees has been sacked multiple times only three times, and has thrown multiple picks only twice. Against Dallas today, Romo was sacked for 42 yards—this season, the Saints are sacked for an average of less than 8.5 yards per game.
3.Adrian Peterson hasn’t rushed for 100 yards since November 15. In fact, since then, he’s averaged only 66 yards per game. Minnesota can’t expect Brett Favre to win this game single-handedly.
4.In their first postseason game, the Saints rushed for 170 yards and passed for 247 with an almost 50:50 run:pass play ratio. That’s what the Saints were doing for the first 13 games of the season when they were unstoppable. I think that their Week 15 loss to the Cowboys (the only one I really care about—the rest were meaningless) can be attributed entirely to the fact that the Saints rushed the ball only 7 times, while passing it 29 times. Look for another balanced attack that will keep the Vikings D on its heels.
5.I don’t think any team could have used a first-round bye week more than the Saints. In the first 11 games of the season, the Saints outscored their opponents 407-221. In the last five games of the season—coming at the end of a stretch of 12 straight games, they were outscored 103-120. Now, after an off week, the Saints have reestablished their dominance, scoring three times as many points as the Cardinals in their first playoff game. When the Saints are rested and Sean Payton and Gregg Williams—who make the best coaching tandem in the NFL—have time to prepare their players, the Saints cannot be beat.
I’ve severely underestimated the Jets. Rex Ryan is really becoming one of the best coaches in the NFL. After he beat the Colts, I felt the Jets were getting lots of unwarranted hype. But since then, they’ve won three games against teams that I honestly thought would run all over them. I really liked the Bengals, and everyone liked the Chargers, but the Jets played them tough, and here they are in the conference championship. I still think the Colts will win, but I’ve become a believer in the Jets.
1.Mark Sanchez sucks, and the Jets have no confidence in him. No team has made fewer pass attempts this season than the Jets, and his past six games, he’s averaged 20 pass attempts per game. The Colts defense may not be the best in the league, but if the Jets do nothing but run the ball, the Colts will be ready.
2.The Jets have a rookie running back, a rookie quarterback, and a rookie head coach. Yes, all three have surpassed our expectations so far, but none have played in this type of capital “b” Big game. And Peyton Manning has. He’s won a Super Bowl, he’s been Super Bowl MVP, and he has almost twice as many pass yards in his 16 playoff games than Mark Sanchez does in his entire career. No one manages the game better than Peyton Manning, and he will lead the Colts to a victory.
3.The Jets have been so successful because Darrelle Revis has been able to shut down big name receivers like Chad Ochocinco and Vincent Jackson—the marquis receiver of their respective teams. Who is the marquis receiver for the Colts? Reggie Wayne? Maybe. But Dallas Clark has just as many receptions and just as many TDs. So who do the Jets think Revis will cover next week? He can cover anyone he wants, and he’ll probably shut that single down. But the fact remains that no quarterback is better at spreading the ball around than Peyton Manning. He throws to whomever is open, and he’ll complete it 99% of the time—well, really 69%, but you know what I mean. Austin Collie, Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon are all targets of Manning, and he does not discriminate. Revis will without a doubt take one receiver out of the game for one play at a time. But after that, Manning still has options.
4.Here’s what the Jets have going for them: they’re on a roll, having won four in a row—all against playoff teams—by a combined 64 points; they beat the Colts by two touchdowns less than a month ago (notice I’m leaving out the part about Peyton being benched after 1 half); the Colts defense is nothing special, especially against the rush: they allow 124 rush yards per game, 22nd in the NFL; the Jets defense is far and away the best in the NFL—1st in opponent completion percentage, pass yards, pass TDs, passer rating, and passing first downs; they just beat the hottest team in the NFL, the Chargers, in San Diego; the Colts have a rookie head coach, and Peyton Manning has only won one playoff game without Tony Dungy at the helm (it came last weekend). Those are considerable advantages, and I’m totally throwing out the Jets. They definitely have a chance to win…I just don’t think they will.
5.My fifth thing to think about, coming into this game is Peyton Manning. He’s having arguably the best year of his career this year, and has only been sacked 10 times—hence, he’s ready to play. You think he’s ready to lose to the Jets for the second time this season? I didn’t think so.
1.Drew Brees against a Minnesota pass defense ranked 24th in opponent passer rating. Come on, you do the math. Another reason I have reason to reason Brees will have a big game: Drew Brees averages 310 pass yards per game in eight home games this season. In their past four away games (GB, ARI, CAR, CHI), the Vikings have allowed an average of 286 pass yards. Brees will tear it up against a sub-par Vikings secondary.
2.The key to the Vikings’ win against the Cowboys was the pressure they got on Tony Romo (6 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 1 interception). In home games the past two years, Drew Brees has been sacked multiple times only three times, and has thrown multiple picks only twice. Against Dallas today, Romo was sacked for 42 yards—this season, the Saints are sacked for an average of less than 8.5 yards per game.
3.Adrian Peterson hasn’t rushed for 100 yards since November 15. In fact, since then, he’s averaged only 66 yards per game. Minnesota can’t expect Brett Favre to win this game single-handedly.
4.In their first postseason game, the Saints rushed for 170 yards and passed for 247 with an almost 50:50 run:pass play ratio. That’s what the Saints were doing for the first 13 games of the season when they were unstoppable. I think that their Week 15 loss to the Cowboys (the only one I really care about—the rest were meaningless) can be attributed entirely to the fact that the Saints rushed the ball only 7 times, while passing it 29 times. Look for another balanced attack that will keep the Vikings D on its heels.
5.I don’t think any team could have used a first-round bye week more than the Saints. In the first 11 games of the season, the Saints outscored their opponents 407-221. In the last five games of the season—coming at the end of a stretch of 12 straight games, they were outscored 103-120. Now, after an off week, the Saints have reestablished their dominance, scoring three times as many points as the Cardinals in their first playoff game. When the Saints are rested and Sean Payton and Gregg Williams—who make the best coaching tandem in the NFL—have time to prepare their players, the Saints cannot be beat.
I’ve severely underestimated the Jets. Rex Ryan is really becoming one of the best coaches in the NFL. After he beat the Colts, I felt the Jets were getting lots of unwarranted hype. But since then, they’ve won three games against teams that I honestly thought would run all over them. I really liked the Bengals, and everyone liked the Chargers, but the Jets played them tough, and here they are in the conference championship. I still think the Colts will win, but I’ve become a believer in the Jets.
1.Mark Sanchez sucks, and the Jets have no confidence in him. No team has made fewer pass attempts this season than the Jets, and his past six games, he’s averaged 20 pass attempts per game. The Colts defense may not be the best in the league, but if the Jets do nothing but run the ball, the Colts will be ready.
2.The Jets have a rookie running back, a rookie quarterback, and a rookie head coach. Yes, all three have surpassed our expectations so far, but none have played in this type of capital “b” Big game. And Peyton Manning has. He’s won a Super Bowl, he’s been Super Bowl MVP, and he has almost twice as many pass yards in his 16 playoff games than Mark Sanchez does in his entire career. No one manages the game better than Peyton Manning, and he will lead the Colts to a victory.
3.The Jets have been so successful because Darrelle Revis has been able to shut down big name receivers like Chad Ochocinco and Vincent Jackson—the marquis receiver of their respective teams. Who is the marquis receiver for the Colts? Reggie Wayne? Maybe. But Dallas Clark has just as many receptions and just as many TDs. So who do the Jets think Revis will cover next week? He can cover anyone he wants, and he’ll probably shut that single down. But the fact remains that no quarterback is better at spreading the ball around than Peyton Manning. He throws to whomever is open, and he’ll complete it 99% of the time—well, really 69%, but you know what I mean. Austin Collie, Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon are all targets of Manning, and he does not discriminate. Revis will without a doubt take one receiver out of the game for one play at a time. But after that, Manning still has options.
4.Here’s what the Jets have going for them: they’re on a roll, having won four in a row—all against playoff teams—by a combined 64 points; they beat the Colts by two touchdowns less than a month ago (notice I’m leaving out the part about Peyton being benched after 1 half); the Colts defense is nothing special, especially against the rush: they allow 124 rush yards per game, 22nd in the NFL; the Jets defense is far and away the best in the NFL—1st in opponent completion percentage, pass yards, pass TDs, passer rating, and passing first downs; they just beat the hottest team in the NFL, the Chargers, in San Diego; the Colts have a rookie head coach, and Peyton Manning has only won one playoff game without Tony Dungy at the helm (it came last weekend). Those are considerable advantages, and I’m totally throwing out the Jets. They definitely have a chance to win…I just don’t think they will.
5.My fifth thing to think about, coming into this game is Peyton Manning. He’s having arguably the best year of his career this year, and has only been sacked 10 times—hence, he’s ready to play. You think he’s ready to lose to the Jets for the second time this season? I didn’t think so.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Round Two Picks, Confidence 4
This game is really a tossup for me. I don’t know which Viking team we’re going to see. Will it be the Vikings that beat the Giants by 37 points in the last game of the regular season; or the Vikings who, just six days prior, gave up 36 points and lost to the Chicago Bears? Minnesota is a great team: their offense is loaded with weapons from Percy Harvin to Sidney Rice to Adrian Peterson to Brett Favre; in fact, Minnesota scored more points than any team in the NFL except the Saints. However, the Dallas defense is H-O-T hot. In their last three games, they’ve allowed a total of 14 points, 45 rush yards per game, 3.7 sacks per game, and 3 third down conversions per game (which is below their NFL-leading season average of 4.2 per game). The one thing Minnesota has going for them is Brett Favre. It didn’t work for him down the stretch in 2008: last season, after starting 8-3 with the Jets, he lost four of his last five games and NY did not qualify for the playoffs. This season, he’s made more pass attempts than he did last season, and I’m not sure how his arm will hold up this weekend. But in 2009, Favre achieved a passer rating, interception total, pass yard total, and touchdown total in the top three of his career. At home, his numbers are off the charts: his passer rating of 118.1 is incredible. And if the Cowboy defense has one hole, it’s the passing game. They’re below the league average in opponent passer rating and opponent passing yards per game. So if Brett Favre can bring his A game, the Vikings will have a serious chance at a win. In Dallas’s five losses this season, the opposing quarterback averages 255 yards through the air; while in those same five games, only one team ran for a hundred yards, and the leading rusher on the opposing team averaged 53.4 YPG. If the Cowboys can hold Adrian Peterson to 53.4 yards, there’s no way Brett Favre can pull together a game good enough for the Vikings to win.
On the other side, the Dallas offense is balanced: Tony Romo behind center is having a career year, all three backs—Marion Barber, Tashard Choice, and Felix Jones—have the potential to break out a twenty yard run at any point during the game, and with a receiving corps of Miles Austin, Jason Witten, and Roy Williams, the Minnesota D will have their hands full. The Vikings have accumulated the second-best point differential in the NFL, and they should put up a fight against Dallas. What the game will come down to is the advantage that each team has over the other: The Vikings home field advantage: Favre has been lights out at Mall of America Field, and has not lost a game there all season. The Cowboys have better chemistry and they have momentum: the Vikings haven’t had chemistry since training camp, when Favre admitted that he did not have the support of the locker room; plus, don’t forget Chad Childress and Brett Favre’s recent power struggles. The ‘Boys have won their last four games, outscoring their opponents 96-28; their defense (especially DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer) looks unstoppable; and Tony Romo is finally playing great.
In the end, the game will hinge of Brett Favre. If he throws for 300 yards, they’ll have a chance of winning. If not, the Cowboys will move on.
On the other side, the Dallas offense is balanced: Tony Romo behind center is having a career year, all three backs—Marion Barber, Tashard Choice, and Felix Jones—have the potential to break out a twenty yard run at any point during the game, and with a receiving corps of Miles Austin, Jason Witten, and Roy Williams, the Minnesota D will have their hands full. The Vikings have accumulated the second-best point differential in the NFL, and they should put up a fight against Dallas. What the game will come down to is the advantage that each team has over the other: The Vikings home field advantage: Favre has been lights out at Mall of America Field, and has not lost a game there all season. The Cowboys have better chemistry and they have momentum: the Vikings haven’t had chemistry since training camp, when Favre admitted that he did not have the support of the locker room; plus, don’t forget Chad Childress and Brett Favre’s recent power struggles. The ‘Boys have won their last four games, outscoring their opponents 96-28; their defense (especially DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer) looks unstoppable; and Tony Romo is finally playing great.
In the end, the game will hinge of Brett Favre. If he throws for 300 yards, they’ll have a chance of winning. If not, the Cowboys will move on.
Round Two Picks, Confidence 5
I like the Ravens, I really do. They played the Colts very close in Week 11, losing 17-15; they match up well against Indy. Manning’s home passer rating is worse than his away rating, Indy has a rookie head coach, an inexperienced receiving corps, and they essentially threw their final two games. On the Ravens side, they showed what they're capable of last Saturday in Foxboro, forcing four Brady turnovers, scoring 24 points in the first quarter, holding the Patriots to under 200 total yards and 14 points, and accumulating only 15 penalty yards. Ray Rice and Willis McGahee have become a two-pronged attack that no defense wants to see. You might say that Joe Flacco has encountered somewhat of a sophomore slump, throwing for fewer than 200 yards eight times this season (including a whopping 34 in last week’s game against the Patriots). But really, why throw and risk turnovers (Colts average a pick a game) when you have some of the best running backs in the NFL? I wouldn’t call it a sophomore slump, I’d call it being judicious. In their past two games, Rice and McGahee have rushed for a combined 458 yards. The Ravens have one of the best rushing attack in the NFL, and they’ll be going up against a Colts defense that allows just as many rush yards as the Detroit Lions. In fact, New England was ranked 13th in run defense this season, allowing 110 yards on the ground per game: Baltimore’s 221 rush yards doubled what the Pats D averaged this season. They’ll live and die by their rushing attack this weekend in Indy, as Flacco won’t be throwing the ball all that much against the Colts, whose D surrenders just a little more than 200 pass yards per game. In the end, though, I just can’t pick against Peyton Manning in the playoffs at home. Manning has had a career year this year, throwing for 4,500 yards for just the second time in his career, and completing a higher percentage of his passes than ever before. The only reservation I have is how sitting for three straight weeks will affect him, but I’ve got to believe he’ll come out strong.
Other Happenings in Sports
There’s no doubting that Pete Carroll built one of the greatest college football teams ever. From 1996-2001, the Trojans were 37-35. Pete Carroll took over in 2001, and since then USC has a record of 86-18. But there’s no way Carroll will experience success anywhere near that in Seattle. College football dominance is based on recruiting. Hence, Pete Carroll could recruit better than anyone. Unfortunately for him, coaches in the NFL don’t recruit. I think Seahawks owner Paul Allen recognized the pro-style offense Carroll ran in SoCal, and plans on him being able to run a similar offense in Seattle. He’ll do that, for sure. But Pete Carroll just won’t have the talent he did when he was at USC. If you gave me the choice between Matt Barkley or Matt Hasselbeck, I’d take Matt Barkley. Until the Seahawks bring in better players, they can look forward to some more 5- or 6-win seasons over the next couple of years. What’s more significant in this story is that Carroll’s replacement will be former Oakland Raiders and Tennessee Volunteers football coach Lane Kiffin. When news of Carroll’s departure first surfaced, everyone wondered how USC could ever survive. Here’s how. Tennessee head coach Lane Kiffin was the offensive coordinator at USC from 2001-2006, and will now be the top dog in Southern Cal. Also making the switch from Tennesse to USC are Carroll’s father and defensive guru Monte Kiffin, as well as the recruiting director there, Ed Orgeron. I really don’t think USC is left with a net loss at the end of all this (as long as they’re not slapped with any NCAA violations.) The fact that Lane Kiffin coached in the NFL and in the SEC will probably be a significant draw for future recruits; the fact that Lane Kiffin loves the spotlight will probably mean he’ll enjoy Southern California; and the fact that USC started only eight seniors last year means that Kiffin will have a lot of talent to work with. In five years, USC will have won one national championship, and the Seahawks will have had one winning season.
Just real quick, Mark McGuire came clean about steroids. I don’t care. I don’t care when you took them, why you took them, or what effects you claim they had on you. You used steroids and gave yourself an unfair advantage that skewed your natural ability—how much of McGuire’s success was natural, and how much does he owe to PEDs? “Grading” a user’s press conference is bull shit. Giambi used, A-Rod used, Pettite used, and Manny used. All these players had different excuses and, in many cases, they’re all perceived by fans in different ways based on how they admitted to steroid use. And that is preposterous. Anyone who has ever taken steroids should be treated the same.
Just real quick, Mark McGuire came clean about steroids. I don’t care. I don’t care when you took them, why you took them, or what effects you claim they had on you. You used steroids and gave yourself an unfair advantage that skewed your natural ability—how much of McGuire’s success was natural, and how much does he owe to PEDs? “Grading” a user’s press conference is bull shit. Giambi used, A-Rod used, Pettite used, and Manny used. All these players had different excuses and, in many cases, they’re all perceived by fans in different ways based on how they admitted to steroid use. And that is preposterous. Anyone who has ever taken steroids should be treated the same.
Monday, January 11, 2010
Round Two Picks, Confidence 8
Chargers over Jets
You’ve got to be kidding me on this one. I still can’t believe the Jets are in the playoffs. The Colts and Cincinnati better be getting thank you cards in the mail this week, because there’s no way the Jets would have made the playoffs if those two teams had played with any fire in the last two weeks of the season. Excluding their last two games, the Jets played three games against playoff teams and averaged 13 points for those three games. The Jets survive solely with their defense, and I don’t think it will hold up against the Chargers in San Diego. San Diego hasn’t scored fewer than 20 points once this season; and as good as the Jets defense is, it’s not that good. Phillip Rivers will still get between 250-300 passing yards (his season average is 265), and will lead to Chargers to at least 27 points. LaDainian Tomlinson seems to always be beat up, and the bye week last week should really do him some good (don’t forget about Darren Sproles, either). Jets’ cornerback Derrelle Revis will probably end up making Chargers top receiver Vincent Jackson a nonfactor, I’ll give you that. But Rivers should still be able to find either his Pro Bowl TE Antonio Gates or 6’5” receiver Malcom Floyd, who had 140 receiving yards in his last game of the season. The Chargers D isn’t anything special, but they should be able to stop the one-minded offense of the Jets, who rely exclusively on their run game. If you look at the Jets’ wins this season, they’ve beat up on poor rush defenses. And at home, the Chargers allow only 100 rush yards per game and .6 rush TDs per game. A third of their wins came against teams that allow over 150 rush yards per game (which only four teams in the NFL did); averaged together, the eight teams that the Jets did beat allowed 131 yards per game. Only six teams actually surrendered that many rush yards. What all that means is that the Jets do well against teams with weak rush defenses. And although the Chargers run defense might not be the best, it’s pretty good—and the Jets only beat one team (other than an unmotivated Cincy in Week 17) with a worse run defense than the Chargers. In his last six games, Jets’ QB Mark Sanchez averages 131 pass yards, and I don’t expect the Jets to score more than 20 points this weekend.
You’ve got to be kidding me on this one. I still can’t believe the Jets are in the playoffs. The Colts and Cincinnati better be getting thank you cards in the mail this week, because there’s no way the Jets would have made the playoffs if those two teams had played with any fire in the last two weeks of the season. Excluding their last two games, the Jets played three games against playoff teams and averaged 13 points for those three games. The Jets survive solely with their defense, and I don’t think it will hold up against the Chargers in San Diego. San Diego hasn’t scored fewer than 20 points once this season; and as good as the Jets defense is, it’s not that good. Phillip Rivers will still get between 250-300 passing yards (his season average is 265), and will lead to Chargers to at least 27 points. LaDainian Tomlinson seems to always be beat up, and the bye week last week should really do him some good (don’t forget about Darren Sproles, either). Jets’ cornerback Derrelle Revis will probably end up making Chargers top receiver Vincent Jackson a nonfactor, I’ll give you that. But Rivers should still be able to find either his Pro Bowl TE Antonio Gates or 6’5” receiver Malcom Floyd, who had 140 receiving yards in his last game of the season. The Chargers D isn’t anything special, but they should be able to stop the one-minded offense of the Jets, who rely exclusively on their run game. If you look at the Jets’ wins this season, they’ve beat up on poor rush defenses. And at home, the Chargers allow only 100 rush yards per game and .6 rush TDs per game. A third of their wins came against teams that allow over 150 rush yards per game (which only four teams in the NFL did); averaged together, the eight teams that the Jets did beat allowed 131 yards per game. Only six teams actually surrendered that many rush yards. What all that means is that the Jets do well against teams with weak rush defenses. And although the Chargers run defense might not be the best, it’s pretty good—and the Jets only beat one team (other than an unmotivated Cincy in Week 17) with a worse run defense than the Chargers. In his last six games, Jets’ QB Mark Sanchez averages 131 pass yards, and I don’t expect the Jets to score more than 20 points this weekend.
Round Two Picks, Confidence: 9
Yeah, yeah, say what you want about my wildcard round playoff picks. They sucked, I know. I’m batting .250 so far. But hey, that’s 15% higher than Varitek’s batting average last season.
This week, I’m going to post my Round Two Picks one at a time, starting with the ones I’m most comfortable with.
Saints over Cardinals
If the Cardinals couldn’t stop Aaron Rodgers, how can they expect to defend against the Saints, who not only have the best QB in the NFL, but also have a great receiving corps and an above-average rushing game? The Cardinals are going to play the Saints the same way they played the Packers: give the ball to Kurt Warner (I was wrong, he’s still got a full tank, even in Week 18), and he’ll throw downfield to Steve Breaston and Larry Fitzgerald—maybe even Anquan Boldin, who could be back from his sprained MCL. He completed 88% of his passes, and threw for five TDs against the Green Bay secondary for a passer rating of 154.1. You think he’ll duplicate that against the Saints secondary in the Superdome? Quarterbacks against the Saints complete an average of 57% of their passes, and manage a passer rating of 67.2, fifth and third in the NFL respectively. The Saints have allowed fewer passing touchdowns this season than they have had games. Granted, you could have said the same thing about Green Bay’s passing defense prior to last night’s game, but over the course of the season, New Orleans has had a better overall defense. I mean, Roethlisberger threw for 500 yards against the Packers just three weeks ago! What I’m saying is you can’t expect Kurt Warner to throw for 350+ again this weekend. You can expect that out of Drew Brees, however. The Cardinals have allowed a 300 yard passing game five times this season. Matt Hasselbeck threw for 315 yards against the Cardinals, for cryin’ out loud; that’s 100 yards higher than his season average! Arizona is 27th in the NFL for passing yards per game, and 23rd in terms of overall yardage. In the end, the Saints defense is far from impenetrable, but they will hold Arizona to under 24 points. On the other side, the Saints offense—especially Drew Brees—will tear up the Cardinals defense and put up at least 31 points.
This week, I’m going to post my Round Two Picks one at a time, starting with the ones I’m most comfortable with.
Saints over Cardinals
If the Cardinals couldn’t stop Aaron Rodgers, how can they expect to defend against the Saints, who not only have the best QB in the NFL, but also have a great receiving corps and an above-average rushing game? The Cardinals are going to play the Saints the same way they played the Packers: give the ball to Kurt Warner (I was wrong, he’s still got a full tank, even in Week 18), and he’ll throw downfield to Steve Breaston and Larry Fitzgerald—maybe even Anquan Boldin, who could be back from his sprained MCL. He completed 88% of his passes, and threw for five TDs against the Green Bay secondary for a passer rating of 154.1. You think he’ll duplicate that against the Saints secondary in the Superdome? Quarterbacks against the Saints complete an average of 57% of their passes, and manage a passer rating of 67.2, fifth and third in the NFL respectively. The Saints have allowed fewer passing touchdowns this season than they have had games. Granted, you could have said the same thing about Green Bay’s passing defense prior to last night’s game, but over the course of the season, New Orleans has had a better overall defense. I mean, Roethlisberger threw for 500 yards against the Packers just three weeks ago! What I’m saying is you can’t expect Kurt Warner to throw for 350+ again this weekend. You can expect that out of Drew Brees, however. The Cardinals have allowed a 300 yard passing game five times this season. Matt Hasselbeck threw for 315 yards against the Cardinals, for cryin’ out loud; that’s 100 yards higher than his season average! Arizona is 27th in the NFL for passing yards per game, and 23rd in terms of overall yardage. In the end, the Saints defense is far from impenetrable, but they will hold Arizona to under 24 points. On the other side, the Saints offense—especially Drew Brees—will tear up the Cardinals defense and put up at least 31 points.
Saturday, January 9, 2010
One More 2010 Red Sox Preview
I have a problem with what the Red Sox have done this offseason. I know what they’re trying to do, but I don’t agree with it. Theo has crafted one of the deepest rosters in the MLB, but he doesn’t have the star power that championship teams must have—especially at the plate. Look at the World Series teams last year and they’re dangerous bats. The Yankees had A-Rod, Teixeira, and Jeter who can all harm you at any point in the game. The Phillies had J-Roll, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Shane Victorino, and Jayson Werth.
We have three proven outfielders in Ellsbury, Cameron, and Drew. With this threesome, you know what you’re going to get: overall, they’re above-average defensively: Ellsbury and Cameron are definite Gold Glove candidates (Cameron already has three in his career). But no one will blow you away at the plate. They’re all decent hitters: together have a career batting average of .277 and 16 HR per year, which is okay, but it won’t win any championships. In the infield, it’s the same story: tons of depth, above-average defense, with mediocre bats.
Between Adrian Beltre/Mike Lowell, Marco Scutaro, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and Victor Martinez there are ten .300 seasons, two 30 HR seasons, and seven seasons of .500 SLG%. In the Bronx, between A-Rod, Jeter, Cano, Teixeira, and Posada, there are twenty-seven .300 seasons, twenty 30-HR seasons, and twenty-six seasons of .500SLG %. The Yanks probably even have the edge defensively: going around the infield, Beltre>A-Rod, Jeter> Scutaro, Cano = Pedroia, Teixeira>Youkilis, Posada = Marinez. We might have a little more depth with Lowie, Lowell, and Varitek as backups, but ten out of ten people would rather have the Yankee lineup at the four infield positions.
The star power that a team needs to make a long playoff run simply does not exist on the Red Sox lineup. If there’s ever an injury, I’m more comfortable with the Red Sox bench players; if both teams stay healthy, though, there’s no question as to which team is better. I’ve already said that the Sox have the best starting rotation in the MLB, and that still stands. I believe Buchholz and Matsuzaka have the potential to be shut-down starters, and if they play up what they’re capable of, we could be looking at one of the best starting rotations in the history of baseball. Nevertheless, I don’t necessarily feel comfortable with the 2010 Red Sox roster as it stands today.
We have three proven outfielders in Ellsbury, Cameron, and Drew. With this threesome, you know what you’re going to get: overall, they’re above-average defensively: Ellsbury and Cameron are definite Gold Glove candidates (Cameron already has three in his career). But no one will blow you away at the plate. They’re all decent hitters: together have a career batting average of .277 and 16 HR per year, which is okay, but it won’t win any championships. In the infield, it’s the same story: tons of depth, above-average defense, with mediocre bats.
Between Adrian Beltre/Mike Lowell, Marco Scutaro, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and Victor Martinez there are ten .300 seasons, two 30 HR seasons, and seven seasons of .500 SLG%. In the Bronx, between A-Rod, Jeter, Cano, Teixeira, and Posada, there are twenty-seven .300 seasons, twenty 30-HR seasons, and twenty-six seasons of .500SLG %. The Yanks probably even have the edge defensively: going around the infield, Beltre>A-Rod, Jeter> Scutaro, Cano = Pedroia, Teixeira>Youkilis, Posada = Marinez. We might have a little more depth with Lowie, Lowell, and Varitek as backups, but ten out of ten people would rather have the Yankee lineup at the four infield positions. The star power that a team needs to make a long playoff run simply does not exist on the Red Sox lineup. If there’s ever an injury, I’m more comfortable with the Red Sox bench players; if both teams stay healthy, though, there’s no question as to which team is better. I’ve already said that the Sox have the best starting rotation in the MLB, and that still stands. I believe Buchholz and Matsuzaka have the potential to be shut-down starters, and if they play up what they’re capable of, we could be looking at one of the best starting rotations in the history of baseball. Nevertheless, I don’t necessarily feel comfortable with the 2010 Red Sox roster as it stands today.
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Pass The Juice
In March 2005, MLB Commissioner Bud Selig, along with Jose Canseco, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, and Rafael Palmeiro sat before noteworthy congressmen and congresswomen on Capitol Hill to discuss the steroid issue plaguing professional baseball. The purpose of the hearings was to eradicate the use of performance-enhancing drugs for posterity—not just in professional sports, but in the youth community across America as well. The use of performance-enhancing drugs by adult men and women is bad enough, but under no circumstances should still-developing young people put these substances in their body. Yet, they do.
At the college level, according to a TA graduate now playing Division 1 football, testing for illegal performance enhancers is taken seriously both internally and by the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA). He has been tested by his own team five times since he started playing in 2007, and he says that the tests are “extremely difficult, if not impossible to cheat.” He told me that he knows of two teammates who have tested positive in the team-administered tests. The same player told me that the NCAA tests are administered in a similar cheat-proof procedure, but that he has never been tested. This year, the NCAA will drug test 10,500 athletes. To get a sense of how small this number is, even if all these tests were concentrated on college football, which they are not, the 10,500 tests would not even account for ¼ of all football players. Nevertheless, at least at this particular institution, it seems that illegal performance-enhancers are rare. The Thayer grad says that the “staff does a very good job of making sure we go by the rules” and that “the system seems to work well”. But what about in high school, where there is no testing, and students tend to be more shortsighted?
The steroid issue in high school is a nonissue, TA’s own Athletic Director Matt McGuirk believes. After all, he told me, the ISL has never had any incident of steroid use. He offers three reasons for this: first, with the development of advanced workout routines, and ISL students’ easy access to personal trainers, students can reach even the greatest fitness goals without the use of illegal drugs. Second, Thayer’s education about steroid use, including guest speakers and Sophomore Fitness, is effective in deterring students from using performance-enhancing drugs. When I asked him whether widespread steroid use in professional sports sets a bad example for students, McGuirk told me that publicized steroid use is actually the third factor that keeps young athletes from using them. When they see juiced up players like Gary Sheffield or Mark McGwire “lose their respect, pride, and dignity,” student-athletes are dissuaded from reaching for illegal performance enhancers by the worry that the same thing could happen to them. I never thought I’d say this, but thank you, Barry Bonds.
Is Matt McGuirk’s notion the right one, or is it optimistically naïve? Playing D-1 sports is romanticized by varsity players and coaches alike, and with ESPN, Sports Illustrated, and the like, high school athletes are hardly strangers to sports media: they know that stars are born in college, and at some point, all the work in the world just isn’t enough for many high school athletes. Everyone wants to succeed, so everyone works hard—but injecting oneself with illegal and potentially fatal drugs is something not everyone is willing to do. As I was told by the D-I football player, “sports are all some athletes have. They don’t have a great education or skills to fall back on…so they are willing to do whatever it takes to get as far as they can.”
Dangers of steroid abuse are never more pronounced than when they are used by inexperienced young adults. As teenagers mature, their bodies are already chock-full of hormones. When steroids enter the body, they are converted into hormones, of which adolescents have more than enough. Even full-grown adults should never take steroids until they have absorbed every last detail about what steroids are and how they work. Drugs like steroids are just too volatile to play around with. How long a steroid can be used continuously will also differ from one steroid to the next; how much, how many times a day, and into what part of the body a steroid can be administered will also vary. The fact of the matter is that there are just too many things that could go wrong in the process of taking steroids that makes them dangerous, and until one knows everything there is to know about steroids, they should not be used whatsoever.
In 2001 the Center for Disease Control reported that 5% of all high school students had taken steroids without a doctor’s prescription. Although this national data probably does not translate to the Thayer community, it does indicate the possibility that up to five students in every class might have used steroids by the time they graduate.
I asked another former Thayer student-athlete about his experience with steroids. The former Tiger, who will be named Fred to maintain his anonymity, confessed that he had dabbled in steroid use, and said that even as he was taking the drugs, he “didn’t know anything about them except the fact that they worked on my friend.” That’s really all Fred was concerned with: the results. In the minds of many steroid users, it doesn’t matter what the drugs may do to the body in the long run—most don’t even know—as long they are effective in the short run. The oral steroid that Fred was using, Dianabol, resulted in side effects like acne and mood swings, two things that don’t sound like they could precipitate long-term health risks. However, if any type of steroid is misused, it can cause very serious problems such as liver damage, high blood pressure, infertility, and stunted growth. Fortunately, Fred did not renew his steroid cycle after his first 16-day cycle had ended. This must have been a difficult decision, as the steroids that cost him only $50 for a two-week supply produced “great results in only three days.” These drugs work, there’s no doubt about that. The dangers manifest themselves when users turn into abusers, which can easily end up happening when, as Fred did, one obtains steroids from a friend, who gets them from a dealer, who probably doesn’t know all that much other than to tell his clients “Take x pills at y times”.
The potential risks Fred was exposing himself to are numerous. One technique that is common by steroid users is called “stacking”, which involves the use of multiple steroids at the same time. If being supplied by an experienced trainer or doctor who knows all there is to know about the drugs, stacking can be safe and can enhance the effectiveness of workouts. But chances are, if Fred had asked his supplier for some new steroids, the supplier would go out and acquire some new type of steroid that he heard was supposed to work differently, without considering the risks of using multiple steroids at once. Not a lot is known about the exact effects of every steroid, but think of stacking like this: if one was to take golf lessons from two instructors at the same time, they could give contradictory advice that could possibly make one’s game worse.
Just as dangerous as irresponsibly stacking one’s steroids is using the same steroid for too long. While some steroids can be used year-round, the body will not be able to cope with most steroids if they are used for too long. Fred’s Dianobol starts to become toxic after around eight months of daily use. But what does a dealer do when his client continues to purchase the same steroids for several consecutive months? Probably nothing. Fred told me that he would have “definitely” been able to keep purchasing Dianobol, as long as he had the money, and that the supplier “would not have told us [that long-term use of Dianabol is dangerous] because he would just want to make a profit.” These potential problems are amplified during the age of the Internet, where one has the opportunity to buy steroids online.
Check out a website called isteroids.com; it sells illegal steroids to anyone with a credit card. All sorts of oral steroids are sold from prices ranging from $70 to $95 per bottle; the “Pro (Advanced) Bulking Stack” includes 24 bottles of pills and will costs $1200. The site even explains how to avoid getting busted by the Feds during the shipping process. The most disturbing part of the webpage is how difficult it is to find anything resembling a warning about steroid abuse. The only thing I could find was at the bottom of a page titled Effects of Steroids, and the warning states concisely, “Always remember, effects of steroids are very serious. Users do experience bad and negative side effects, so be warned! Do your research.” Yet, there is absolutely nothing to ensure that customers do any research at all; nothing to make sure drugs aren’t being stacked improperly, no one there to monitor long-term use of steroids. It’s actually quite unsettling that this steroid supplier downplays the harmful effects of steroids.
I believe that steroids will continue to be used by the McGwires, Sosas, and Cansecos of professional baseball. And, honestly, I’m fine with that. These baseball players can afford to work with experienced trainers who know all there is to know about how to safely use steroids—because they can be used safely. On top of that, these professional athletes have completed normal human development, and their bodies are not changing at the rate that yours and mine are. So if they want to use steroids, let them. That’s not the problem, and MLB knows that. The problem is when young athletes—kids—hear about these superstars juicing, they think that they can too. They can’t. Even if a student thinks he has absorbed every last morsel of information, even if he thinks his body can handle the drugs, he hasn’t, and it can’t.
At the college level, according to a TA graduate now playing Division 1 football, testing for illegal performance enhancers is taken seriously both internally and by the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA). He has been tested by his own team five times since he started playing in 2007, and he says that the tests are “extremely difficult, if not impossible to cheat.” He told me that he knows of two teammates who have tested positive in the team-administered tests. The same player told me that the NCAA tests are administered in a similar cheat-proof procedure, but that he has never been tested. This year, the NCAA will drug test 10,500 athletes. To get a sense of how small this number is, even if all these tests were concentrated on college football, which they are not, the 10,500 tests would not even account for ¼ of all football players. Nevertheless, at least at this particular institution, it seems that illegal performance-enhancers are rare. The Thayer grad says that the “staff does a very good job of making sure we go by the rules” and that “the system seems to work well”. But what about in high school, where there is no testing, and students tend to be more shortsighted?
The steroid issue in high school is a nonissue, TA’s own Athletic Director Matt McGuirk believes. After all, he told me, the ISL has never had any incident of steroid use. He offers three reasons for this: first, with the development of advanced workout routines, and ISL students’ easy access to personal trainers, students can reach even the greatest fitness goals without the use of illegal drugs. Second, Thayer’s education about steroid use, including guest speakers and Sophomore Fitness, is effective in deterring students from using performance-enhancing drugs. When I asked him whether widespread steroid use in professional sports sets a bad example for students, McGuirk told me that publicized steroid use is actually the third factor that keeps young athletes from using them. When they see juiced up players like Gary Sheffield or Mark McGwire “lose their respect, pride, and dignity,” student-athletes are dissuaded from reaching for illegal performance enhancers by the worry that the same thing could happen to them. I never thought I’d say this, but thank you, Barry Bonds.
Is Matt McGuirk’s notion the right one, or is it optimistically naïve? Playing D-1 sports is romanticized by varsity players and coaches alike, and with ESPN, Sports Illustrated, and the like, high school athletes are hardly strangers to sports media: they know that stars are born in college, and at some point, all the work in the world just isn’t enough for many high school athletes. Everyone wants to succeed, so everyone works hard—but injecting oneself with illegal and potentially fatal drugs is something not everyone is willing to do. As I was told by the D-I football player, “sports are all some athletes have. They don’t have a great education or skills to fall back on…so they are willing to do whatever it takes to get as far as they can.”
Dangers of steroid abuse are never more pronounced than when they are used by inexperienced young adults. As teenagers mature, their bodies are already chock-full of hormones. When steroids enter the body, they are converted into hormones, of which adolescents have more than enough. Even full-grown adults should never take steroids until they have absorbed every last detail about what steroids are and how they work. Drugs like steroids are just too volatile to play around with. How long a steroid can be used continuously will also differ from one steroid to the next; how much, how many times a day, and into what part of the body a steroid can be administered will also vary. The fact of the matter is that there are just too many things that could go wrong in the process of taking steroids that makes them dangerous, and until one knows everything there is to know about steroids, they should not be used whatsoever.
In 2001 the Center for Disease Control reported that 5% of all high school students had taken steroids without a doctor’s prescription. Although this national data probably does not translate to the Thayer community, it does indicate the possibility that up to five students in every class might have used steroids by the time they graduate.
I asked another former Thayer student-athlete about his experience with steroids. The former Tiger, who will be named Fred to maintain his anonymity, confessed that he had dabbled in steroid use, and said that even as he was taking the drugs, he “didn’t know anything about them except the fact that they worked on my friend.” That’s really all Fred was concerned with: the results. In the minds of many steroid users, it doesn’t matter what the drugs may do to the body in the long run—most don’t even know—as long they are effective in the short run. The oral steroid that Fred was using, Dianabol, resulted in side effects like acne and mood swings, two things that don’t sound like they could precipitate long-term health risks. However, if any type of steroid is misused, it can cause very serious problems such as liver damage, high blood pressure, infertility, and stunted growth. Fortunately, Fred did not renew his steroid cycle after his first 16-day cycle had ended. This must have been a difficult decision, as the steroids that cost him only $50 for a two-week supply produced “great results in only three days.” These drugs work, there’s no doubt about that. The dangers manifest themselves when users turn into abusers, which can easily end up happening when, as Fred did, one obtains steroids from a friend, who gets them from a dealer, who probably doesn’t know all that much other than to tell his clients “Take x pills at y times”.
The potential risks Fred was exposing himself to are numerous. One technique that is common by steroid users is called “stacking”, which involves the use of multiple steroids at the same time. If being supplied by an experienced trainer or doctor who knows all there is to know about the drugs, stacking can be safe and can enhance the effectiveness of workouts. But chances are, if Fred had asked his supplier for some new steroids, the supplier would go out and acquire some new type of steroid that he heard was supposed to work differently, without considering the risks of using multiple steroids at once. Not a lot is known about the exact effects of every steroid, but think of stacking like this: if one was to take golf lessons from two instructors at the same time, they could give contradictory advice that could possibly make one’s game worse.
Just as dangerous as irresponsibly stacking one’s steroids is using the same steroid for too long. While some steroids can be used year-round, the body will not be able to cope with most steroids if they are used for too long. Fred’s Dianobol starts to become toxic after around eight months of daily use. But what does a dealer do when his client continues to purchase the same steroids for several consecutive months? Probably nothing. Fred told me that he would have “definitely” been able to keep purchasing Dianobol, as long as he had the money, and that the supplier “would not have told us [that long-term use of Dianabol is dangerous] because he would just want to make a profit.” These potential problems are amplified during the age of the Internet, where one has the opportunity to buy steroids online.
Check out a website called isteroids.com; it sells illegal steroids to anyone with a credit card. All sorts of oral steroids are sold from prices ranging from $70 to $95 per bottle; the “Pro (Advanced) Bulking Stack” includes 24 bottles of pills and will costs $1200. The site even explains how to avoid getting busted by the Feds during the shipping process. The most disturbing part of the webpage is how difficult it is to find anything resembling a warning about steroid abuse. The only thing I could find was at the bottom of a page titled Effects of Steroids, and the warning states concisely, “Always remember, effects of steroids are very serious. Users do experience bad and negative side effects, so be warned! Do your research.” Yet, there is absolutely nothing to ensure that customers do any research at all; nothing to make sure drugs aren’t being stacked improperly, no one there to monitor long-term use of steroids. It’s actually quite unsettling that this steroid supplier downplays the harmful effects of steroids.
I believe that steroids will continue to be used by the McGwires, Sosas, and Cansecos of professional baseball. And, honestly, I’m fine with that. These baseball players can afford to work with experienced trainers who know all there is to know about how to safely use steroids—because they can be used safely. On top of that, these professional athletes have completed normal human development, and their bodies are not changing at the rate that yours and mine are. So if they want to use steroids, let them. That’s not the problem, and MLB knows that. The problem is when young athletes—kids—hear about these superstars juicing, they think that they can too. They can’t. Even if a student thinks he has absorbed every last morsel of information, even if he thinks his body can handle the drugs, he hasn’t, and it can’t.
Monday, January 4, 2010
My Round 1 Picks
Three Week 17 rematches will be featured in the first round of The Playoffs
Patriots over Ravens
The loss of Welker isn’t as damaging as you might think. Rookie Julian Edelman is all the hype and by no means overrated. The Ravens were able to take Welker out the
game in Week 4 anyway: on his first game back from injury, Welker only had six catches against the Ravens –which is his 2nd lowest total for the season—for 48 yards. The Pats went on to win that game 27-21. Tom Brady is 14-3 career in the playoffs and has never lost his first playoff game; the Pats finally have all their backs healthy: Laurence Maroney sat out Week 17 and will be rested, Sammy Morris is back from his injuries that sidelined him for six games in the middle of the season, and Fred Taylor rushed for two TDs last week and has recovered from his ankle injury that kept him out 10 games.
Bengals over Jets
The Jets played out of their minds on Sunday, and there’s no way that will happen
again, this time in Cincinnati. The Bengals have had some quality wins this season, including at Green Bay, twice against Pittsburgh, and twice against Baltimore. Their losses came in a last-second lucky touchdown in Week 1 in Denver (they were good then, remember?), at Minnesota, at San Diego, a fluke loss to the up-and-down Oakland Raiders, and a Week 17 blowout that really had no impact on their playoff seeding. The only quality wins I’d give the Jets came in the first two weeks of the season against the Texans and Patriots; you could also throw in Week 15 against the Falcons, but I wouldn’t. The Bengals now know Sanchez won’t throw the ball next week (he threw for only 63 yards in Week 17) and the Cincinnati D can focus on stopping Brad Smith and the above-average run game of the Jets.
Cowboys over Eagles
What December woes? (What overused cliché?) Tony Romo has averaged 310 yards his last six games, throwing only two interceptions to go along with eleven touchdowns.
The ‘Boys will be back in Dallas, and I don’t see any reason they won’t steamroll the Eagles in Round #2. The Dallas defense is playing harder than they have all season, and have shutout their last two opponents. The ‘Boys will likely be playing for their coach Wade Phillip’s job, and I think that they will be motivated more than they have been all season. The Cowboys haven’t won a playoff game since 1996. Jerry Jones didn’t spend a bazillion dollars on his new stadium to lose another playoff game. He wants to win. The Cowboy fans want to win. His team wants to win. They will win.
Packers over Cardinals
Aaron Rodgers is coming into his own after living in the shadow of Brett Favre, and is becoming one of the elite passers in the NFL. He still has some game management skills that he can improve upon, but when it comes to purely throwing the football, there’s few I’d rather have than Aaron Rodgers. Speaking of Brett Favre though, I
don’t think veteran Kurt Warner, at age 38, really has any more big games in him. He averages less than 250 passing yards in his last five games (excluding Week 17, when he threw but six passes), and the Cardinals don’t really have much of a run game that he can lean on: Tim Hightower hasn’t had more than 15 carries all season. Of the twelve playoff teams, the Cardinals total the second fewest yards per game, and I don’t see their defense stopping the Packers 6th-ranked offense. To tell you the truth, I’m not really impressed with the Cardinals. At all. You know how many wins they had against teams with records better than .500? One. Against the Texans in Week 5…Warner and the Cards were coming off of a buy week. I mean look at their schedule. They beat St. Louis twice, they beat Seattle twice, and they beat the Tigers: that’s half their wins right there. If they lost to the 49ers twice, how do they expect to beat the Packers?
Patriots over Ravens
The loss of Welker isn’t as damaging as you might think. Rookie Julian Edelman is all the hype and by no means overrated. The Ravens were able to take Welker out the
game in Week 4 anyway: on his first game back from injury, Welker only had six catches against the Ravens –which is his 2nd lowest total for the season—for 48 yards. The Pats went on to win that game 27-21. Tom Brady is 14-3 career in the playoffs and has never lost his first playoff game; the Pats finally have all their backs healthy: Laurence Maroney sat out Week 17 and will be rested, Sammy Morris is back from his injuries that sidelined him for six games in the middle of the season, and Fred Taylor rushed for two TDs last week and has recovered from his ankle injury that kept him out 10 games.Bengals over Jets
The Jets played out of their minds on Sunday, and there’s no way that will happen
again, this time in Cincinnati. The Bengals have had some quality wins this season, including at Green Bay, twice against Pittsburgh, and twice against Baltimore. Their losses came in a last-second lucky touchdown in Week 1 in Denver (they were good then, remember?), at Minnesota, at San Diego, a fluke loss to the up-and-down Oakland Raiders, and a Week 17 blowout that really had no impact on their playoff seeding. The only quality wins I’d give the Jets came in the first two weeks of the season against the Texans and Patriots; you could also throw in Week 15 against the Falcons, but I wouldn’t. The Bengals now know Sanchez won’t throw the ball next week (he threw for only 63 yards in Week 17) and the Cincinnati D can focus on stopping Brad Smith and the above-average run game of the Jets.Cowboys over Eagles
What December woes? (What overused cliché?) Tony Romo has averaged 310 yards his last six games, throwing only two interceptions to go along with eleven touchdowns.
The ‘Boys will be back in Dallas, and I don’t see any reason they won’t steamroll the Eagles in Round #2. The Dallas defense is playing harder than they have all season, and have shutout their last two opponents. The ‘Boys will likely be playing for their coach Wade Phillip’s job, and I think that they will be motivated more than they have been all season. The Cowboys haven’t won a playoff game since 1996. Jerry Jones didn’t spend a bazillion dollars on his new stadium to lose another playoff game. He wants to win. The Cowboy fans want to win. His team wants to win. They will win.Packers over Cardinals
Aaron Rodgers is coming into his own after living in the shadow of Brett Favre, and is becoming one of the elite passers in the NFL. He still has some game management skills that he can improve upon, but when it comes to purely throwing the football, there’s few I’d rather have than Aaron Rodgers. Speaking of Brett Favre though, I
don’t think veteran Kurt Warner, at age 38, really has any more big games in him. He averages less than 250 passing yards in his last five games (excluding Week 17, when he threw but six passes), and the Cardinals don’t really have much of a run game that he can lean on: Tim Hightower hasn’t had more than 15 carries all season. Of the twelve playoff teams, the Cardinals total the second fewest yards per game, and I don’t see their defense stopping the Packers 6th-ranked offense. To tell you the truth, I’m not really impressed with the Cardinals. At all. You know how many wins they had against teams with records better than .500? One. Against the Texans in Week 5…Warner and the Cards were coming off of a buy week. I mean look at their schedule. They beat St. Louis twice, they beat Seattle twice, and they beat the Tigers: that’s half their wins right there. If they lost to the 49ers twice, how do they expect to beat the Packers?
Friday, January 1, 2010
What's Up With That: Blue Turf?
What’s up with Boise St.’s blue turf? I’ll be the first to admit that it looks awesome; it’s different, it’s noticeable, and it has put Boise on the map. Would Boise St. still be respected in college football if it did not have blue turf? Yeah, probably. But would they have won seven of the last eight Western Athletic Conference championships? I doubt it. High school athletes are not drawn to Boise St. because Boise is the sixth greenest urban area in the U.S., or because it’s the ninth hottest midsize city for entrepreneurs, not even because Idaho produces one-third of all the potatoes grown in the United States. It’s because they want to play on the blue turf of Bronco Stadium. But I do have a problem with it. In all honesty, I believe that it’s cheating. What color are the Bronco uniforms? Blue—they are the exact color as the turf they play on. Was this simply by accident? I think not. This year, the team even eliminated its orange pants to get the blue top on blue pants on blue turf camouflage look. You can’t tell me that when visiting 
teams come to Bronco Stadium, they see the Boise players as clearly as they do their teammates. Especially if we’re talking about their peripheral vision. Do you have a better chance of seeing a blue jersey or a white jersey coming at you from the side? The home field advantage of Boise St. is one of the best in college football. Their players are essentially camouflaged by the field, and that’s not fair. What’s stopping Alabama from installing a crimson playing field? How many more TD’s would Tim Tebow have had if the Gators played on blue turf? Think about it: cornerbacks and safeties have their backs turned to the play until they see that no pass is coming, and then they locate Tebow immediately. If Tebow blended in with the turf he was playing on, I guarantee he’d have at least a half second extra time of not being noticed because the defensive backs wouldn’t know if he’s scrambling to the weak side or strong side. Boise playing on blue turf is an unfair advantage that the NCAA needs to take care of promptly.
teams come to Bronco Stadium, they see the Boise players as clearly as they do their teammates. Especially if we’re talking about their peripheral vision. Do you have a better chance of seeing a blue jersey or a white jersey coming at you from the side? The home field advantage of Boise St. is one of the best in college football. Their players are essentially camouflaged by the field, and that’s not fair. What’s stopping Alabama from installing a crimson playing field? How many more TD’s would Tim Tebow have had if the Gators played on blue turf? Think about it: cornerbacks and safeties have their backs turned to the play until they see that no pass is coming, and then they locate Tebow immediately. If Tebow blended in with the turf he was playing on, I guarantee he’d have at least a half second extra time of not being noticed because the defensive backs wouldn’t know if he’s scrambling to the weak side or strong side. Boise playing on blue turf is an unfair advantage that the NCAA needs to take care of promptly.
Thunderstorms in OKC
Now, I know I just sang the praises of one expansion team, the Texans (introduced in 2002). But let me sing the praises of one more.
I know the Oklahoma City Thunder is not really an expansion team; the Seattle SuperSonics just relocated to Oklahoma City, and changed their name and jerseys. But it does feel like a whole new team.
In the three seasons from the ‘05-06 to ‘07-08, the SuperSonics compiled a record of 86-160 and failed to make the playoffs once—which you almost have to try to do in the NBA. After averaging a little over 15,000 fan attendance from 2002 to 2008, the SuperSonics moved to OKC, where attendance now hovers around 18,000 per game, which is good enough for 11th in the NBA. This season, the Thunder have a winning record, and, should the season end today, they would be in the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. Such a turnaround has certainly been unexpected. Look at some of the previous relocations in professional sports: Montreal Expos became the Nationals in 2005, who have yet to have a winning season or make the playoffs; the Washington Senators moved to Dallas to become to Rangers in 1972, and didn’t make the playoffs for their first 24 years in Texas, and still have only won one playoff game ever.
The move to OKC feels a different, though. For the first time ever, Oklahoma houses a major professional sports team, and the fans have welcomed the Thunder as well as they possibly could have. Personally, I'm not surprised; college football draws a huge crowd there, and I don't see why no pro team has ventured there before the Thunder. Regardless, the team has reacted to the support accordingly. Kevin Durant is becoming one of the most electrifying players in all of basketball, currently fourth in the NBA with 28.5 PPG (he just broke a 37-year-old franchise record, scoring 30 points in his 6th straight game). He leads an extraordinarily young team with tons of potential: the average years of experience on the roster is 2.8, including four rookies. The team's 18-14 record is a 14-game improvement from where it was at this time last season, and the Thunder have had some big wins, including against the Magic, Suns, Spurs, and Heat. I also have to give them credit for two losses against the Lakers by a combined six points.
So check your city’s forecast, and make sure there are no eminent thunderstorms. This might be The Inconvenient Truth talking, but something tells me that thunderstorms are growing more powerful every year.
I know the Oklahoma City Thunder is not really an expansion team; the Seattle SuperSonics just relocated to Oklahoma City, and changed their name and jerseys. But it does feel like a whole new team.
In the three seasons from the ‘05-06 to ‘07-08, the SuperSonics compiled a record of 86-160 and failed to make the playoffs once—which you almost have to try to do in the NBA. After averaging a little over 15,000 fan attendance from 2002 to 2008, the SuperSonics moved to OKC, where attendance now hovers around 18,000 per game, which is good enough for 11th in the NBA. This season, the Thunder have a winning record, and, should the season end today, they would be in the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. Such a turnaround has certainly been unexpected. Look at some of the previous relocations in professional sports: Montreal Expos became the Nationals in 2005, who have yet to have a winning season or make the playoffs; the Washington Senators moved to Dallas to become to Rangers in 1972, and didn’t make the playoffs for their first 24 years in Texas, and still have only won one playoff game ever. The move to OKC feels a different, though. For the first time ever, Oklahoma houses a major professional sports team, and the fans have welcomed the Thunder as well as they possibly could have. Personally, I'm not surprised; college football draws a huge crowd there, and I don't see why no pro team has ventured there before the Thunder. Regardless, the team has reacted to the support accordingly. Kevin Durant is becoming one of the most electrifying players in all of basketball, currently fourth in the NBA with 28.5 PPG (he just broke a 37-year-old franchise record, scoring 30 points in his 6th straight game). He leads an extraordinarily young team with tons of potential: the average years of experience on the roster is 2.8, including four rookies. The team's 18-14 record is a 14-game improvement from where it was at this time last season, and the Thunder have had some big wins, including against the Magic, Suns, Spurs, and Heat. I also have to give them credit for two losses against the Lakers by a combined six points.So check your city’s forecast, and make sure there are no eminent thunderstorms. This might be The Inconvenient Truth talking, but something tells me that thunderstorms are growing more powerful every year.
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