Round Two Picks, Confidence 5

I like the Ravens, I really do. They played the Colts very close in Week 11, losing 17-15; they match up well against Indy. Manning’s home passer rating is worse than his away rating, Indy has a rookie head coach, an inexperienced receiving corps, and they essentially threw their final two games. On the Ravens side, they showed what they're capable of last Saturday in Foxboro, forcing four Brady turnovers, scoring 24 points in the first quarter, holding the Patriots to under 200 total yards and 14 points, and accumulating only 15 penalty yards. Ray Rice and Willis McGahee have become a two-pronged attack that no defense wants to see. You might say that Joe Flacco has encountered somewhat of a sophomore slump, throwing for fewer than 200 yards eight times this season (including a whopping 34 in last week’s game against the Patriots). But really, why throw and risk turnovers (Colts average a pick a game) when you have some of the best running backs in the NFL? I wouldn’t call it a sophomore slump, I’d call it being judicious. In their past two games, Rice and McGahee have rushed for a combined 458 yards. The Ravens have one of the best rushing attack in the NFL, and they’ll be going up against a Colts defense that allows just as many rush yards as the Detroit Lions. In fact, New England was ranked 13th in run defense this season, allowing 110 yards on the ground per game: Baltimore’s 221 rush yards doubled what the Pats D averaged this season. They’ll live and die by their rushing attack this weekend in Indy, as Flacco won’t be throwing the ball all that much against the Colts, whose D surrenders just a little more than 200 pass yards per game. In the end, though, I just can’t pick against Peyton Manning in the playoffs at home. Manning has had a career year this year, throwing for 4,500 yards for just the second time in his career, and completing a higher percentage of his passes than ever before. The only reservation I have is how sitting for three straight weeks will affect him, but I’ve got to believe he’ll come out strong.