With only five players (excluding special teams) age 30 years or older, the Texans have immense potential. Since 2003, they’ve drafted four players to be voted to the All Pro team—Andre Johnson, Jerome Mathis, Mario Williams, and DeMeco Ryans. Add to that this year’s performance of rookie linebacker Brian Cushing out of USC: 128 tackles (first among NFL rookies), 4 sacks (second highest for NFL rookies; first in AFC), 4 interceptions (the only rookie to have more is Buffalo’s Jairus Byrd, a free safety), and 2 forced fumbles (tied for second among NFL rookies), and the Texans have compiled some of the most impressive draft histories in recent memory. In 2009, they started three rookies, and two others have played in every game this season. In 2006, we scoffed at their passing off Reggie Bush for Mario Williams. Well I ask you, who’s laughing now? The Texans have one of the youngest teams in the NFL and have nowhere to go but up.
Quarterback Matt Schaub has shown himself Pro Bowl worthy for the first time this year. He has thrown for more yards than any QB through week 15, is third in completion percentage behind only Drew Brees and Peyton Manning (elite company, I’d say), and is one of only three quarterbacks to throw more than 58 passes of 20+ yards and less than 15 interceptions. He has missed nine games due to injury in the past two years, but he’s only 28 years old (Romo is 29, Brees is 30, Brady is 32, Manning is 33) and has a bright future ahead of him. I predict him to be the best quarterback in the NFL in five years. Brees, Brady, and Manning will be washed-up by then; Roethlisberger (27) will not amount to much in the next few years, as he will continue to fight injuries—he’s only started 16 games once in his career and averages 40 sacks per season; Romo and Eli have yet to prove themselves, and could take a few more years to become top-tier quarterbacks; right now, only Phillip Rivers (28), Jay Cutler (26), and Matt Ryan (24) could possibly challenge Schaub in the coming years as NFL’s top quarterback.
But no one will have better weapons at wide receiver than the Texans in the coming years. Andre Johnson has finally come into his own after being drafted in the first round of the 2003 Draft. He has the most receiving yards of any WR by almost 200 yards and is the second-biggest deep threat after Philly’s Desean Jackson. Houston has nine players who have caught at least 15 passes this season, none of whom have played in the NFL for more than 7 years. The Pats have seven, who together average 8 years experience. You might be thinking that experience is a good thing, and it is. For the short term. Kevin Faulk is a great weapon for the Pats…right now. How great will he be in three years? He’ll probably be out of the NFL. The Texans, on the other hand, have a solid receiving corps to count for the next several years. Matt Schaub and the Houston offense will continue to put up big numbers and will continue to win games.
There’s no question as to where the strength of this Texans team is: it’s the passing game. It’s not the defense and it’s not the run game. As far as defense goes, the Texans aren’t great, but aren’t bad either. They have a reliable defense that gives up a little more than 20 points and 325 yards per game, right in the middle of the pack for the NFL. Super Bowls are no longer won with stellar defenses; it’s becoming more of an offense-driven league every year. So I don’t think much focus should be put on the Houston D. They do, however, need to focus on the run game. In 2009, only the Colts run for fewer yards. This is especially crucial in the red zone. Of all the teams with over 350 points this season, the Texans have the fewest run TDs, which hurts them most in the red zone. What number troubles me is that the Texans are 11th in total points this season, yet they are 5th in total yards. This tells me that their red zone game sucks. Even though they are gaining tons of yards, they can struggle to point enough points on the board. Their 52.7% TD conversion in the red zone is not going to cut it if they have Super Bowl aspirations. Only one 11-win team has a lower red zone conversion percentage, the Eagles. Indy and New Orleans together have a 62% conversion rate, and that is why they were both undefeated entering week 14.
The Texans will be a playoff contender for the next several years, and have Super Bowl potential. But they’re not there yet. If they really want to go somewhere other than a 9-7 season, they’ll need to get a new coach, work on their run game, maintain their electric passing game, and continue to have successful defense-centric (less risky) drafts.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Saturday, December 26, 2009
SOTD: Large Market Teams
There are 39 professional sports teams in NY/NJ, LA, BOS, CHI, DET, Pennsylvania, and Texas, across the four major sports of NHL, MLB, NBA, and NFL. There are a total of 122 professional sports teams in those four leagues. Since 1990, there has been a total of 76 championships, and one of those 39 teams have appeared in 60 of them (79%). In addition, they have a combined 78 appearances in the championships between them. The 39 teams lucky enough to be in such a large market account for 31.9% of all the professional teams in America. However, at the same time, they have more appearances in league championships than the other 83 teams do combined. WHat does this mean? The influx of money in professional sports, and the concentration of that money into major markets have left small market teams in the dust. Teams in Kansas City, Florida, New Orleans, or anywhere in the West outside of LA don't stand a chance anymore. Sure, they may have a run once in a while thanks to a bit of luck and a great star (Saints, Colts, Marlins, Lightning, Rays, and Rockies), but in the long run, they won't really make a dent in their respective sports. The Royals (Kansas City), Seahawks (Seattle), Grizzlies (Memphis), and Wild (Minnesota) will continue to be the punching bag of bigger and better teams, a game on the schedule they will always be able to mark down as a win before the season even starts.
The Minnesota Wild actually proves this best. Minnesota and the Northern part of America is hockey town: the Minnesota Golden Gophers, Wisconsin Badgers, and Michigan Wolverines are always contendors for the NCAA hockey championship. Why? Because kids grow up playing hockey there, and want to go to school close to home. Youth and high school hockey is HUGE up there, and the high school stars go play for the school they've rooted for throughout their childhood: usually the ones closest to their home. But as soon as money enters the picture, the story changes. If we were to follow the same pattern, the Minnesota college stars would want to play for the Minnesota Wild or the Winnipeg Jets: close to home. But how have these teams fared? Well, The Wild haven't been the Stanley Cup since their inception in 2000, and the Winnipeg Jets were forced to relocate to Phoenix. Big money teams like Detroit and Chicago can pay players more because they can sell more tickets, sell more merchandise, and attract more sponsers.
And until the leagues make some major revenue sharing moves or something else extraodinary, this will continue to be the case. Its been 12 years since we've had a World Series between two teams not from Chicago, Boston, Philly, or NYC. Its been six years for the NFL, three for the NHL; and if you throw in Texas, the NBA has NEVER had a finals between two small market teams.
The Minnesota Wild actually proves this best. Minnesota and the Northern part of America is hockey town: the Minnesota Golden Gophers, Wisconsin Badgers, and Michigan Wolverines are always contendors for the NCAA hockey championship. Why? Because kids grow up playing hockey there, and want to go to school close to home. Youth and high school hockey is HUGE up there, and the high school stars go play for the school they've rooted for throughout their childhood: usually the ones closest to their home. But as soon as money enters the picture, the story changes. If we were to follow the same pattern, the Minnesota college stars would want to play for the Minnesota Wild or the Winnipeg Jets: close to home. But how have these teams fared? Well, The Wild haven't been the Stanley Cup since their inception in 2000, and the Winnipeg Jets were forced to relocate to Phoenix. Big money teams like Detroit and Chicago can pay players more because they can sell more tickets, sell more merchandise, and attract more sponsers.
And until the leagues make some major revenue sharing moves or something else extraodinary, this will continue to be the case. Its been 12 years since we've had a World Series between two teams not from Chicago, Boston, Philly, or NYC. Its been six years for the NFL, three for the NHL; and if you throw in Texas, the NBA has NEVER had a finals between two small market teams.
The Houston Texans Will Make The Playoffs
The Texans will make the playoffs because they will finish 9-7. Here’s why:
Their next two games (at Miami, vs. NE) look intimidating, but really they aren’t.
Miami will be playing a quarterback in his first year as starter, Chad Henne, who doesn’t have the big game experience that is necessary in a game like this. He’s been intercepted eight times in his last four games, while throwing only four TDs. Accordingly, Miami has had to rely on their running game all season, and rank fourth in the NFL in rushing yards. The Texans, on the other hand, have allowed 100 rushing yards only once in their last eleven games, and the run-heavy Dolphins will have trouble gaining yards against an ever-improving Texans defense. The game against NE is an easy one. The Pats will be coming off a playoff-clinching win against the Jaguars, and should be resting some of their key offensive starters. But what’s more important is the Texans’ passing attack. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are becoming one of the biggest combos in the game, and will tear apart the young Patriots secondary.
However, the Texans will need a little help from their fellow AFC contenders. There are still seven teams fighting for the two AFC wild card spots. Since Houston will be winning out, the other four 7-7 teams will only have to lose once, and they all will. Jacksonville will lose in New England in Week 16; the Dolphins will lose against Houston in Week 16; the Jets will lose their two remaining games in Indianapolis and against Cincinnati; and the Steelers will lose in Week 17 in Miami. Baltimore will lose to the Steelers and the Raiders, thus finishing the season 8-8. This sounds a little crazy, but stick with me. Pittsburgh lost to the Ravens by just three points in Week 12, and Pittsburgh will come back with a vengeance to win in Week 16. Oakland has won five games this season, four of which came against playoff contenders (Philly, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Denver). They will pull off another upset in Week 17 with Bruce Gradkowski back from a knee injury that sidelined him in Denver, and with another big game from Michael Bush, who had 133 rushing yards last week against Denver.
The 2010 postseason will be the first in franchise history for the Houston Texans (expansion team in 2002), and will secure the head coaching job of Gary Kubiak for at least another season.
Their next two games (at Miami, vs. NE) look intimidating, but really they aren’t.
Miami will be playing a quarterback in his first year as starter, Chad Henne, who doesn’t have the big game experience that is necessary in a game like this. He’s been intercepted eight times in his last four games, while throwing only four TDs. Accordingly, Miami has had to rely on their running game all season, and rank fourth in the NFL in rushing yards. The Texans, on the other hand, have allowed 100 rushing yards only once in their last eleven games, and the run-heavy Dolphins will have trouble gaining yards against an ever-improving Texans defense. The game against NE is an easy one. The Pats will be coming off a playoff-clinching win against the Jaguars, and should be resting some of their key offensive starters. But what’s more important is the Texans’ passing attack. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are becoming one of the biggest combos in the game, and will tear apart the young Patriots secondary.
However, the Texans will need a little help from their fellow AFC contenders. There are still seven teams fighting for the two AFC wild card spots. Since Houston will be winning out, the other four 7-7 teams will only have to lose once, and they all will. Jacksonville will lose in New England in Week 16; the Dolphins will lose against Houston in Week 16; the Jets will lose their two remaining games in Indianapolis and against Cincinnati; and the Steelers will lose in Week 17 in Miami. Baltimore will lose to the Steelers and the Raiders, thus finishing the season 8-8. This sounds a little crazy, but stick with me. Pittsburgh lost to the Ravens by just three points in Week 12, and Pittsburgh will come back with a vengeance to win in Week 16. Oakland has won five games this season, four of which came against playoff contenders (Philly, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Denver). They will pull off another upset in Week 17 with Bruce Gradkowski back from a knee injury that sidelined him in Denver, and with another big game from Michael Bush, who had 133 rushing yards last week against Denver.
The 2010 postseason will be the first in franchise history for the Houston Texans (expansion team in 2002), and will secure the head coaching job of Gary Kubiak for at least another season.
Red Sox Offseason
SIGN
Mike Cameron -37 years old
-Never hit better than .275
-7 for 10 stealing in 2009 (fewest steals in 13 year career)
-Hit 20+ HR last 4 years
-Played 140+ games 10 of past 12 years, low injury risk
-2 Golden Gloves, 1 All-Star
-Against Yankees: .236 BA
Jeremy Hermida-26 years old
- Strong rookie season (.296 BA, .870 OPS)
-Benched in September for rookie Cameron Maybin
-.189 batting against lefties (.282 against righties) in ‘09
-1st round pick of 2002 draft
- 0 Gold Gloves, 0 All-Stars
-Against Yankees: 4-18, 5 SO
Marco Scutaro-34 years old
-Career year last year (.282 BA, .378 OBP, 1.2 BB: SO ratio)
-No power (50 HR in 840 game career, career .384 SLG)
-Solid fielder, can play virtually any position on the field
-6 year veteran (all in AL)
-0 Gold Gloves, 0 All-Star
-Against Yankees: .242 BA
LOSE
Jason Bay-32 years old
-100 RBI, 30HR 4 of 6 years in MLB
-Rookie of the Year in 2004
-3rd in HR, 2nd in RBI, Silver Slugger in 2009
-Accounted for 25% of runs scored by Red Sox in 2009
-Played 145+ in 5 of 6 years in MLB (162 in ’05)
-0 Gold Gloves, 3 All-Stars
- Against Yankees: .324 BA, .559 SLG
You do the math. Alex Gonzalez is gone, but Scutaro is a competent replacement. Let's face it, Gonzo may have been the fan favorite and we all wanted to see him stay, but Scutaro is just as good, and younger. We signed him for two years, with an option for the third year. Don't forget about Lowry either. If he stays healthy, he's a good person to have waiting in the wings. But then there's Jason Bay. Bay probably didn't add so much defense for the Red Sox in '09, but there's no way the outfield we have ligned up now (Ellsbury, Drew, Cameron/Hermida) will be able to replace what Bay meant for this offense--especially if Ortiz has another down year. Bay averages 33 HR and 107 RBI a year. Last year, no one else on the Sox had either 33 HR or 100 RBI.
The addition of John Lackey makes the Sox rotation more dangerous than any other in Major League baseball. We have three shut-down starters, there's no doubt about that. But our lineup really has virtually no power threats, and one or two solid bats: Youkilis, Pedroia, and maybe Papi. The Yankees have A-Rod, Jeter, Texeira, as well as Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano, as well as two Cy-Young candidates in Sabathia and Burnett. For the Sox lineup, Ellsbury will continue to pose a threat on the basepaths, but his .350 OBP won't cut it as a leadoff hitter. Lowell is question mark: he could have a great offensive year, but I doubt his ability to touch his toes anymore. He's the oldest 35 year-old I've ever seen, and is one-year removed from a major hip surgery. The fact that Boston brass tried to get rid of once this offseason (trade to Rangers was called off after his physical) tells you the Red Sox doubt his potential to for another .290 season., a BA only four Red Sox topped last season. Pedroia, Youkilis, and Martinez will have solid years, but don't be surprised if their numbers dip a little with the loss of Bay's protection in the lineup. Like it or not, J.D. will continue to be J.D. He'll bat around .265 with tons of walks and tons of strikeouts, but don't expect anything more.
The Yankees didn't make any big splashes this offseason, but they didn't need to. They won the World Series last year and have virtually the same roster. Yeah, they'll probably end up losing Damon, but he's past his prime anyway. Plus the Steinbrenners will probably end up signing Mark DeRosa or some other bat that can at least replace Damon. They made a couple minor moves, like sending Melky Cabrera to the Braves for pitcher Javier Vasquez, which will probably put Joba back in the 'pen with some scrub named Mariano Rivera.
Mike Cameron -37 years old
-Never hit better than .275
-7 for 10 stealing in 2009 (fewest steals in 13 year career)
-Hit 20+ HR last 4 years
-Played 140+ games 10 of past 12 years, low injury risk
-2 Golden Gloves, 1 All-Star
-Against Yankees: .236 BA
Jeremy Hermida-26 years old
- Strong rookie season (.296 BA, .870 OPS)
-Benched in September for rookie Cameron Maybin
-.189 batting against lefties (.282 against righties) in ‘09
-1st round pick of 2002 draft
- 0 Gold Gloves, 0 All-Stars
-Against Yankees: 4-18, 5 SO
Marco Scutaro-34 years old
-Career year last year (.282 BA, .378 OBP, 1.2 BB: SO ratio)
-No power (50 HR in 840 game career, career .384 SLG)
-Solid fielder, can play virtually any position on the field
-6 year veteran (all in AL)
-0 Gold Gloves, 0 All-Star
-Against Yankees: .242 BA
LOSE
Jason Bay-32 years old
-100 RBI, 30HR 4 of 6 years in MLB
-Rookie of the Year in 2004
-3rd in HR, 2nd in RBI, Silver Slugger in 2009
-Accounted for 25% of runs scored by Red Sox in 2009
-Played 145+ in 5 of 6 years in MLB (162 in ’05)
-0 Gold Gloves, 3 All-Stars
- Against Yankees: .324 BA, .559 SLG
You do the math. Alex Gonzalez is gone, but Scutaro is a competent replacement. Let's face it, Gonzo may have been the fan favorite and we all wanted to see him stay, but Scutaro is just as good, and younger. We signed him for two years, with an option for the third year. Don't forget about Lowry either. If he stays healthy, he's a good person to have waiting in the wings. But then there's Jason Bay. Bay probably didn't add so much defense for the Red Sox in '09, but there's no way the outfield we have ligned up now (Ellsbury, Drew, Cameron/Hermida) will be able to replace what Bay meant for this offense--especially if Ortiz has another down year. Bay averages 33 HR and 107 RBI a year. Last year, no one else on the Sox had either 33 HR or 100 RBI.
The addition of John Lackey makes the Sox rotation more dangerous than any other in Major League baseball. We have three shut-down starters, there's no doubt about that. But our lineup really has virtually no power threats, and one or two solid bats: Youkilis, Pedroia, and maybe Papi. The Yankees have A-Rod, Jeter, Texeira, as well as Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano, as well as two Cy-Young candidates in Sabathia and Burnett. For the Sox lineup, Ellsbury will continue to pose a threat on the basepaths, but his .350 OBP won't cut it as a leadoff hitter. Lowell is question mark: he could have a great offensive year, but I doubt his ability to touch his toes anymore. He's the oldest 35 year-old I've ever seen, and is one-year removed from a major hip surgery. The fact that Boston brass tried to get rid of once this offseason (trade to Rangers was called off after his physical) tells you the Red Sox doubt his potential to for another .290 season., a BA only four Red Sox topped last season. Pedroia, Youkilis, and Martinez will have solid years, but don't be surprised if their numbers dip a little with the loss of Bay's protection in the lineup. Like it or not, J.D. will continue to be J.D. He'll bat around .265 with tons of walks and tons of strikeouts, but don't expect anything more.
The Yankees didn't make any big splashes this offseason, but they didn't need to. They won the World Series last year and have virtually the same roster. Yeah, they'll probably end up losing Damon, but he's past his prime anyway. Plus the Steinbrenners will probably end up signing Mark DeRosa or some other bat that can at least replace Damon. They made a couple minor moves, like sending Melky Cabrera to the Braves for pitcher Javier Vasquez, which will probably put Joba back in the 'pen with some scrub named Mariano Rivera.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
The Denver............... Patriots?
Well, Josh McDaniels moved to Denver, bringing a huge amount of Patriots players with him. The Pats have traded DE Le Kevin Smith to the Broncos ofr undisclosed draft picks, only a week after veteran OL Russ Hochstein. Now the list of former 2008 Patriot players who have moved to Denver....
Jabar Gaffney - WR
Lamont Jordan - RB
Lonie Paxton - LS
Le Kevin Smith - DL
Russ Hochstein - LS
Josh McDaniel - HC
Only five names, but still it is a lot considering it was during one offseason, and only between two teams. The Patriots will be facing the New York Giants in Gillete Stadium at 7:30pm.
Jabar Gaffney - WR
Lamont Jordan - RB
Lonie Paxton - LS
Le Kevin Smith - DL
Russ Hochstein - LS
Josh McDaniel - HC
Only five names, but still it is a lot considering it was during one offseason, and only between two teams. The Patriots will be facing the New York Giants in Gillete Stadium at 7:30pm.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
What's Up with That? The Next Welker
After last week’s preseason game against the Philadelphia Eagles, we’re already hearing that rookie Julian Edelman will become the next Wes Welker. And, why? Cause he’s a small white dude who can catch. What’s up with that? Just cause he’s sub-6’0” with great hands and crazy speed doesn’t make him a clone of Wes! Well, actually, there’s a lot more to the comparison than that.
Size:
Welker—5’9”
Edelman—5’10”
Race:
Welker—white
Edelman—white
Primary position:
Welker—WR
Edelman—WR
Returner:
Welker—holds NCAA record for most punts returned for TDs
Edelman—returned a punt 75 yards for TD in his preseason debut with the Pats
Versatility:
Welker—second player in NFL history to return a punt and kickoff, kick and extra point and field goal, and make a tackle in one game
Edelman—3-year starter at D-I school, Kent St., as a quarterback!
Usage:
Welker—short routes, great on third down
Edelman—use his speed and quickness to beat coverage down low
Weakness:
Welker—too small to be used on deep routes
Edelman—ditto
Doubted:
Welker—went undrafted in 2004 NFL Draft
Edelman—not even invited to NFL Combine this year
So what’s up with these unwarranted comparisons? Well, they’re pretty justified, actually.
Size:
Welker—5’9”
Edelman—5’10”
Race:
Welker—white
Edelman—white
Primary position:
Welker—WR
Edelman—WR
Returner:
Welker—holds NCAA record for most punts returned for TDs
Edelman—returned a punt 75 yards for TD in his preseason debut with the Pats
Versatility:
Welker—second player in NFL history to return a punt and kickoff, kick and extra point and field goal, and make a tackle in one game
Edelman—3-year starter at D-I school, Kent St., as a quarterback!
Usage:
Welker—short routes, great on third down
Edelman—use his speed and quickness to beat coverage down low
Weakness:
Welker—too small to be used on deep routes
Edelman—ditto
Doubted:
Welker—went undrafted in 2004 NFL Draft
Edelman—not even invited to NFL Combine this year
So what’s up with these unwarranted comparisons? Well, they’re pretty justified, actually.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
The Vick Saga Comes to Philly
Michael Vick signed a two-year deal with the Philadelphia Eagles on Friday. His unconditional suspension by Commissioner Roger Goodell is expected to be lifted after 3-4 regular season games. Vick is expected to be ready to play by the time the third and final Eagles preseason season game rolls around on Setpember third against the Panthers.
That is the press conference held by the Eagles to officially introduce Michael Vick to the squad. I don’t know what it is about it, but I have the gut feeling that Vick understands his wrongdoing and how it is affected his career. I think we’ve seen the end of Vick’s off-field troubles, and he will be able to begin again in the NFL, and work his way into a starting role somewhere. I have to say, I appreciate how Vick has handled himself throughout his ordeal. He has kept his cool and has remained calm, suave even, as he tries to not agitate any of the intense emotions felt by Americans nation-wide. He will be on 60 Minutes tonight to hold his first televised interview since 2007 when he confessed to torturing and killing dogs as part of his dogfighting ring. This could be the be-all or end-all for Vick, as he makes one last push to sway the nation.
Notoriously unforgiving PETA still questions Vick’s sincerity and is skeptical as to the genuineness of his remorse, or if he only out to repair his image. Instead of trying to futilely work with PETA, who is still contemplating organized protests wherever Vick plays football, the ex-Falcon is cooperating with the Humane Society to appease those middle-ground Americans: there are overly-righteous animal lovers who will never forgive Vick for his role in dogfighting, there are those who believe he has paid his debt to society and deserves a second chance no matter how he conducts himself from here on out, and there are those who are withholding their judgment until they can determine whether the quarterback is genuinely sorry for his actions. It is this last group whom Vick is attempting to sway. So far, I’d say he’s done a fine job.
Based on reports from Eagles training camp, Vick’s athleticism has not been overstated—he’s indeed a superathlete who can throw a football in his sleep. I’m looking forward to seeing how the Philadelphia coaching staff will utilize Vick. McNabb is the undisputed starter for the Eagles, who have him locked up until his 12-year deal ends in 2013. Vick’s two-year contract with the Eagles is worth $1.6 million, and we’ll soon see if Vick can become the dual-threat QB he once was, or if he’ll be used exclusively in the wildcat formation, maybe even as a wide receiver. But when 2011 rolls around, we’ll see if his role with the Eagles has shown he can be a starting quarterback in the NFL.
Here's the NFL Network's report from Eagles' training camp:
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-training-camps/09000d5d811ebe87/Vick-practices-with-Eagles
That is the press conference held by the Eagles to officially introduce Michael Vick to the squad. I don’t know what it is about it, but I have the gut feeling that Vick understands his wrongdoing and how it is affected his career. I think we’ve seen the end of Vick’s off-field troubles, and he will be able to begin again in the NFL, and work his way into a starting role somewhere. I have to say, I appreciate how Vick has handled himself throughout his ordeal. He has kept his cool and has remained calm, suave even, as he tries to not agitate any of the intense emotions felt by Americans nation-wide. He will be on 60 Minutes tonight to hold his first televised interview since 2007 when he confessed to torturing and killing dogs as part of his dogfighting ring. This could be the be-all or end-all for Vick, as he makes one last push to sway the nation.
Notoriously unforgiving PETA still questions Vick’s sincerity and is skeptical as to the genuineness of his remorse, or if he only out to repair his image. Instead of trying to futilely work with PETA, who is still contemplating organized protests wherever Vick plays football, the ex-Falcon is cooperating with the Humane Society to appease those middle-ground Americans: there are overly-righteous animal lovers who will never forgive Vick for his role in dogfighting, there are those who believe he has paid his debt to society and deserves a second chance no matter how he conducts himself from here on out, and there are those who are withholding their judgment until they can determine whether the quarterback is genuinely sorry for his actions. It is this last group whom Vick is attempting to sway. So far, I’d say he’s done a fine job.
Based on reports from Eagles training camp, Vick’s athleticism has not been overstated—he’s indeed a superathlete who can throw a football in his sleep. I’m looking forward to seeing how the Philadelphia coaching staff will utilize Vick. McNabb is the undisputed starter for the Eagles, who have him locked up until his 12-year deal ends in 2013. Vick’s two-year contract with the Eagles is worth $1.6 million, and we’ll soon see if Vick can become the dual-threat QB he once was, or if he’ll be used exclusively in the wildcat formation, maybe even as a wide receiver. But when 2011 rolls around, we’ll see if his role with the Eagles has shown he can be a starting quarterback in the NFL.
Here's the NFL Network's report from Eagles' training camp:
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-training-camps/09000d5d811ebe87/Vick-practices-with-Eagles
Saturday, August 15, 2009
MLB Draft News
All 2009 MLB draftees have until August 17th to sign with their team. So far, the Red Sox have successfully signed first round pick outfielder, Reymond Fuentes out of his Puerto Rico high school, as well as their second rounder, pitcher Alex Wilson out of Texas A&M. Looking back at the draft results, the emphasis was undoubtedly on pitching and athleticism: out of the first 25 picks, 15 were pitchers and five were outfielders. I think that Red Sox front office look at natural ability in players they hope to draft, and anticipate them coming into their own as they mature both physically and mentally. Third round draft pick out of South Panola High School (Mississippi), David Renfroe is our highest pick that has yet to sign.
Elsewhere in the Majors, the Washington Nationals continue to struggle with their first round and #1 overall draft pick, flamethrower Stephen Strasburg. Despite offering him a record-breaking contract, this Boras-represented stud is still unsigned, just days away from the deadline by which all negotiations must be completed. If he does not reach a deal with the Nationals, he could find a team to play for in Japan, or finish his senior year at San Diego State and reenter the draft next year.
Thayer's Kyle McKenzie has not yet signed with the NY Yankees, although he has been in contact with the organization and has worked out for Yankee scouts at their stadium in the Bronx.
Elsewhere in the Majors, the Washington Nationals continue to struggle with their first round and #1 overall draft pick, flamethrower Stephen Strasburg. Despite offering him a record-breaking contract, this Boras-represented stud is still unsigned, just days away from the deadline by which all negotiations must be completed. If he does not reach a deal with the Nationals, he could find a team to play for in Japan, or finish his senior year at San Diego State and reenter the draft next year.
Thayer's Kyle McKenzie has not yet signed with the NY Yankees, although he has been in contact with the organization and has worked out for Yankee scouts at their stadium in the Bronx.
Friday, August 14, 2009
Stat of the Day: Scoring Efficiency
In last Sunday’s classic against the Yankees, the game went to New York, who won by three runs. However, the Red Sox managed to get nine hits throughout the game, to the Yankees ten. How did the Yankees manage to win by such a margin, despite getting practically the same number of hits as the BoSox? The Yankees are one of the best teams in the MLB at manufacturing runs. It’s becoming a lost art, but scoring runs efficiently is an extremely important piece to a winning ballclub. You can’t rely on all your hitters to create runs purely by hits; walks, stolen bases, bunts, an extra base hits can create runs without basing too much offense on the base hit. The MLB average of runs per hit is .509. Teams that are above the average are able to manufacture runs through things like the extra-base hit, stolen bases, timely hits, sac flies, etc. Teams that are below the average may have decent, even above-average hitters, but for whatever reason are not able to drive them in.
Top three teams, scoring efficiency
1. Phillies (top five OBP, SLG, HR, SB% in MLB)
2. Rays (most stolen bases in MLB)
3. Rockies (most sacrifice flies in MLB)
Bottom three teams, scoring efficiency
28. Giants (lowest OBP in MLB)
29. Astros (ground into most double plays in MLB)
30. Mariners (bottom five in XBH, BB, OBP in MLB)
Top three teams, scoring efficiency
1. Phillies (top five OBP, SLG, HR, SB% in MLB)
2. Rays (most stolen bases in MLB)
3. Rockies (most sacrifice flies in MLB)
Bottom three teams, scoring efficiency
28. Giants (lowest OBP in MLB)
29. Astros (ground into most double plays in MLB)
30. Mariners (bottom five in XBH, BB, OBP in MLB)
Fighting Out of the Red Corner...
In Tuesday’s matchup against the Detroit Tigers, Kevin Youkilis was hit by a pitch in the second inning, and proceeded to charge the mound. There’s debate as to whether the ensuing brawl energized the Boston clubhouse or was just selfish behavior on the part of Youkilis. If it did indeed energize the Red Sox, they did not pay close attention to the fight. If anything, it should have humiliated the club to the point where they are ashamed to stay in the batter’s box. Youkilis is a 220 lb. beast—monster go-tee, shaved head, and the body of a Viking warrior. The head-hunting pitcher, Rick Porcello, on the other hand is a 200 lb. scarecrow—a 20 year-old rookie with the body of a fashion designer. Now let’s think about this. If these two squared off in the octagon, Youkilis would compete as a Heavyweight, the same weight class as juiced-up giant Brock Lesnar; whereas Porcello would fight in the smaller Light Heavyweight division. Since MLB owns the rights to the film, I’ll recap how the showdown went down.
Youkilis gets hit in the back, charges the mound, throws his batting helmet at Porcello (which is a dead givaway he has no idea what he's doing), and instead of throwing a punch at Porcello like any decent fighter would do, he opts to tackle Porcello, if you could call it that. Porcello doesn’t even know what’s going on, and throws his hands in the air like a spoiled hockey player getting called for a penalty. Then Youkilis wraps his arms around the Tigers rookie as if he were giving him a goodbye hug, not trying to tackle him to the ground. Don’t forget, Youkilis is trying to make a statement here: don’t mess with the Boston Red Sox, or you’ll be sorry. However, the statement he ended up making was more like: we’re pussies and don’t know how to defend ourselves. Porcello, who I must say is as lanky as lanky can be, basically throws Youkilis off him and lands on top of him, pinning him to the infield grass. If he wanted, Ricky Porcello could have started throwing wild punches at our All-Star hitter; luckily for Youkilis, Tigers and Red Sox alike just started piling on top of each other instead of letting the two go at it. There’s no doubt about this one. By unanimous decision, the fight goes to Rick Porcello.
Why the Sox are Slumping
Since the All Star Break, the Red Sox have gone from leading the AL East by 3.0 games, to being down 6.5 to the dreaded Spankees. Let's take a look at why:
1. Jason Varitek has had one multi-hit game in his past 23 games. I know he’s not an offensive catcher, but come on. Plus, he throws out a humiliating 15.1% of basestealers, which is last in the Majors, and way below the MLB average of 25.3%.
2. They’re on a stretch of 24 days, playing 23 games. They need a rest. Coming off days of rest, the Red Sox are 11-2 this season. Off days are turning us on.
3. Mike Lowell can’t field—he’s below the MLB median in assists, range factor, and fielding percentage. I can’t tell you how many plays I’ve seen him fail to execute because he moves like an old man. Sure, he can still make routine plays, but diving catches and off-balance throws are out of the question. He’s 35, coming off offseason hip surgery and is the oldest position player on the roster. You know, steroids are being called the fountain of youth, keeping muscles and joints young and healthy…maybe Lowell should have hopped on that bandwagon awhile ago.
4. Big Papi can’t hit. In the past 30 days, he has the third worst slugging percentage of all DHs. He can’t hit, he can’t field. But he’s good in the clutch, right? In late and close games (7th inning or later, with his team tied, ahead by one run, or with the tying at least on deck) his BA is .167 with a .250 SLG. Not really that good in the clutch. If I see Ortiz starting over Kotchman, Lowell, or V-Mart, I’m going to blow a fuse.
5. Jason Bay had 5 RBI in July, with a .295 SLG and .192 BA. Had more strikeouts than total bases. We had come to rely too much on our left-fielder, and he may have felt pressure to play while hurt with an apparent hamstring injury. Six days of rest in seven games this month have done him well. He has as many total bases in seven games as he did the entire month of July.
6. The only thing John Smoltz did effectively was wear out the bullpen. He never pitched more than six innings in eight starts, and in his final four starts, he gave up 35 hits. Everyone wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt, but when the Sox lost their sixth game started by Smoltz, they designated him for assignment. That was a waste of $5.5 million.
1. Jason Varitek has had one multi-hit game in his past 23 games. I know he’s not an offensive catcher, but come on. Plus, he throws out a humiliating 15.1% of basestealers, which is last in the Majors, and way below the MLB average of 25.3%.
2. They’re on a stretch of 24 days, playing 23 games. They need a rest. Coming off days of rest, the Red Sox are 11-2 this season. Off days are turning us on.
3. Mike Lowell can’t field—he’s below the MLB median in assists, range factor, and fielding percentage. I can’t tell you how many plays I’ve seen him fail to execute because he moves like an old man. Sure, he can still make routine plays, but diving catches and off-balance throws are out of the question. He’s 35, coming off offseason hip surgery and is the oldest position player on the roster. You know, steroids are being called the fountain of youth, keeping muscles and joints young and healthy…maybe Lowell should have hopped on that bandwagon awhile ago.
4. Big Papi can’t hit. In the past 30 days, he has the third worst slugging percentage of all DHs. He can’t hit, he can’t field. But he’s good in the clutch, right? In late and close games (7th inning or later, with his team tied, ahead by one run, or with the tying at least on deck) his BA is .167 with a .250 SLG. Not really that good in the clutch. If I see Ortiz starting over Kotchman, Lowell, or V-Mart, I’m going to blow a fuse.
5. Jason Bay had 5 RBI in July, with a .295 SLG and .192 BA. Had more strikeouts than total bases. We had come to rely too much on our left-fielder, and he may have felt pressure to play while hurt with an apparent hamstring injury. Six days of rest in seven games this month have done him well. He has as many total bases in seven games as he did the entire month of July.
6. The only thing John Smoltz did effectively was wear out the bullpen. He never pitched more than six innings in eight starts, and in his final four starts, he gave up 35 hits. Everyone wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt, but when the Sox lost their sixth game started by Smoltz, they designated him for assignment. That was a waste of $5.5 million.
Monday, August 10, 2009
Stat of the Day: Steals
The common belief is that the National League plays baseball more strategically than the American League. Is it? Well, NL teams sacrifice bunt almost twice as much AL teams, and they also intentially walk batters more frequently than the AL by a considerable margin. However, the American League has stolen more bases per game than the National League for the eighth time in the past nine years (thanks to, in large part, Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford combining for 102 SB, compared to the top to NL base stealers combining for 75). So on the basepaths, the American Leaguers do take more risks and play with somewhat of a strategy, but I'd still like to see the Sox do some more bunting. Tito needs to stop relying on batters like Nick Green (.306 OPB) and Jason Varitek (.329 OPB) to move a runner over with their swings. If you think about it (giving them a few more points for a fielder's choice here and there), batters like these two will move a runner over 35% of the time if you let them swing away. (Green and Tek will strikeout 35% and 22%, respectively). And if they bunt, the chances of them moving the runner over a base are virtually 100%. As of today, Boston is second to last in the MLB with 11 sac bunts. Maybe it's an AL East thing--the Sox, Yanks, Rays, Jays, and O's are five of the bottom six teams in the MLB in sacrifice bunts.
Sunday, August 9, 2009
Heisman Trophy 's Meaning in the NFL
The Heisman Trophy is awarded to the most outstanding college football player and is the most prestigious award in the NCAA. Each of the 74 players who have been honored with the award deserves tremendous praise for their collegiate careers. However, what is even more impressive is when such success at the college level translates into success at the professional level. And in recent years, that just hasn’t happened. You can attribute that disconnect from NCAA to NFL stars to whatever you want—hype puts too much pressure on Heisman winners, NCAA football is played too differently than NFL football that it’s incredibly hard to be great at both, NCAA starlets get too accustomed to playing at the college level that they cannot transition to the NFL—whatever it is, especially in recent years, there is substantial evidence that a Heisman winner has a hard time having the same success he did in college as he did in the NFL.
Since Barry Sanders won the award in 1988, there have been 20 recipients of the Heisman Award. Fourteen went drafted in the top five rounds of the NFL Draft, including ten first-rounders. So there’s no question as to how NFL front offices look at Heisman winners—they like them, a lot. However, only four have had any measurable success in pro football, and two have yet to appear in an NFL game at all. Eddie George (1995), Charles Woodson (1997), Ricky Williams (1998), and Carson Palmer (2002) are the only players since 1988 to have both won the Heisman Trophy in college, and to have started at least 10 games in 2 or more seasons in the NFL. Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, good luck.
Since Barry Sanders won the award in 1988, there have been 20 recipients of the Heisman Award. Fourteen went drafted in the top five rounds of the NFL Draft, including ten first-rounders. So there’s no question as to how NFL front offices look at Heisman winners—they like them, a lot. However, only four have had any measurable success in pro football, and two have yet to appear in an NFL game at all. Eddie George (1995), Charles Woodson (1997), Ricky Williams (1998), and Carson Palmer (2002) are the only players since 1988 to have both won the Heisman Trophy in college, and to have started at least 10 games in 2 or more seasons in the NFL. Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, good luck.
Saturday, August 8, 2009
What's up with That? MLB Colors
Here’s what I want to know: why does just about every team in the Major Leagues have team colors that incorporate the three boring colors: white, red, and blue. Let’s take a look at teams whose caps do not feature a color other than the aforementioned three: Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, Twins, Indians, Royals, Angels, Rangers, Phillies, Braves, Nationals, Cardinals, Cubs, Reds, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Padres. That leaves the orange teams (Orioles, Tigers, Mets, Giants), green (Mariners, A’s, Marlins), and gold (Astros, Brewers), then the purple of the Rockies and black and white of the White Sox. So what’s up with the monotony of professional sports dress? In college, there’s the maroon of USC and Alabama, yellow of 
Michigan and Cal, purple of TCU and Northwestern, orange of Florida and Tennessee—it’s just more interesting in the NCAA. When I go to a game, I want to be able to distinguish the fans of one team versus another. How cool is it to watch a Texas football game and sea a sea of burnt orange, then a segregated fifty or so fans, tucked away in one corner of the stadium wearing Oklahoma red? If I’m at Fenway, and I knock over someone’s beer, I want to be able to anticipate whether I should apologize—‘cause there’s nothing worse than saying “excuse me”, only to realize that it was a Yankee fan you accidentally shoved, and he didn’t deserve an apology. If the Yanks sported the more appropriate color of tickle-me-pink, Sox fans could see ahead of time who was holding up the hot dog line, who the drunk fan trying to hit on the ball girl was, and wouldn’t have to hold off judgment until they got a closer look at his hat. So next time 
a team decides to change their logo (ehem, Rays, ehem), I hope they don’t go with the flow and make it just like everyone else’s. The next expansion team—no matter what sport or what city—should be called the Supernovae.
Michigan and Cal, purple of TCU and Northwestern, orange of Florida and Tennessee—it’s just more interesting in the NCAA. When I go to a game, I want to be able to distinguish the fans of one team versus another. How cool is it to watch a Texas football game and sea a sea of burnt orange, then a segregated fifty or so fans, tucked away in one corner of the stadium wearing Oklahoma red? If I’m at Fenway, and I knock over someone’s beer, I want to be able to anticipate whether I should apologize—‘cause there’s nothing worse than saying “excuse me”, only to realize that it was a Yankee fan you accidentally shoved, and he didn’t deserve an apology. If the Yanks sported the more appropriate color of tickle-me-pink, Sox fans could see ahead of time who was holding up the hot dog line, who the drunk fan trying to hit on the ball girl was, and wouldn’t have to hold off judgment until they got a closer look at his hat. So next time a team decides to change their logo (ehem, Rays, ehem), I hope they don’t go with the flow and make it just like everyone else’s. The next expansion team—no matter what sport or what city—should be called the Supernovae.
Friday, August 7, 2009
People I Hate Most
1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Brett Favre
3. Roger Clemens
4. Eric Mangini
5. Kobe Bryant
6. Joba Chamberlain
7. Joe Morgan
8. Peyton Manning
9. Patrick Roy
10. Harry Frazee
11. Ohio State University
12. Adam Vinatieri
13. Roger Federer
14. Tim Tebow
15. Phil Mickelson
16. NHL Players Association
17. NFL Wide Receivers
18. Grady Little
19. Brock Lesnar
20. Tampa Bay Rays
2. Brett Favre
3. Roger Clemens
4. Eric Mangini
5. Kobe Bryant
6. Joba Chamberlain
7. Joe Morgan
8. Peyton Manning
9. Patrick Roy
10. Harry Frazee
11. Ohio State University
12. Adam Vinatieri
13. Roger Federer
14. Tim Tebow
15. Phil Mickelson
16. NHL Players Association
17. NFL Wide Receivers
18. Grady Little
19. Brock Lesnar
20. Tampa Bay Rays
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Give Varitek a Break
To all you Varitek-bashers out there, chill out. Don’t jump to conclusions and ask for his demotion to Pawtucket, don’t yell and scream and plead for V-Mart to become out permanent backstop. Here’s why: Varitek ranks 12th in AL with 64 hits and 5th in the Majors with 13 HR, among catchers. His .229 average is what sets lots of people off. Compared to a deep Red Sox lineup everywhere else, he is a poor hitter--his average is almost 40 points below the team average. However, that’s the case in most clubhouses these days. Catching is the most physically demanding position in all of baseball, and those who play it are no longer the offensive threats they used to be. The days of Mike Piazza and Pudge and Sandy Alomar are over. We’re in the age of the Russell Martins, Dioner Navarros, and Geovany Sotos—catchers who can call a great game, allow few past balls, and have great baseball IQs. They’re main role on the team is to help the pitching staff feel comfortable and play smart, with offense swirling around in the back of their minds. And as far as that all goes, Varitek is as good as it gets. He’s caught more no-hitters (4) than any other catcher in Major League history, has helped Sox farmhands Lester, Buchholz, and Papelbon transition to the Big Leagues fluidly, and his unparalleled leadership often goes unnoticed—he is the team captain, after all. To understand how catching has changed from a hitter’s position to a thinking game, here are some stats.
This year, seven catchers have batting averages over .275. In 2006, that number was eighteen. In 2003, ten. 2000: fifteen. 1997: twelve. So ease up on Varitek, and let him bat in the 8th spot, maintain a low BA and drive in a run every once in a while. It's been 67 years since a catcher has won the batting title (Ernie Lombardi of the Braves did so in 1942). It’s not in a catcher’s job description to bat .320 with 45 HR anymore.
P.S. As far as Varitek’s contract goes, he has a dual-option next year. He has a club option for $5 million, and a player option for $3 million. Depending on how the Victor Martinez experiment goes, I don’t think Theo will pick up the club option, but I do believe ‘Tek will take the $3 million player option and finish his career with the Sox after the 2010 season.
This year, seven catchers have batting averages over .275. In 2006, that number was eighteen. In 2003, ten. 2000: fifteen. 1997: twelve. So ease up on Varitek, and let him bat in the 8th spot, maintain a low BA and drive in a run every once in a while. It's been 67 years since a catcher has won the batting title (Ernie Lombardi of the Braves did so in 1942). It’s not in a catcher’s job description to bat .320 with 45 HR anymore.
P.S. As far as Varitek’s contract goes, he has a dual-option next year. He has a club option for $5 million, and a player option for $3 million. Depending on how the Victor Martinez experiment goes, I don’t think Theo will pick up the club option, but I do believe ‘Tek will take the $3 million player option and finish his career with the Sox after the 2010 season.
What's Up With That? Jeter Doesn't Play Basketball
What's up with Derek Jeter's basketball wristband? Wrong sport, dude. The Yankee captain's Nike wristband features the "Air Jordan" Jumpman logo. And it's not like Nike doesn't make wristbands that just have their signature swoosh on them, so why does Jeter wear one that features a silhouette of a dunking Jordan? That's pretty queer if you ask me, even for a Yankee.
Monday, August 3, 2009
K-Mack Update
Taken from nomaas.org, "The definitive source on Yankee draft news, by Lane Meyer"
July 17, 2009
30th Round, KYLE MCKENZIE: The diminuitive RHP from Massachussets throws gas on the hill, and has a strong commitment to Tulane. As a lifelong Red Sox fan, his selection by the Yankees had to sting a little, but I’ve heard a rumor that he MAY have been the unidentified third guy at The Stadium on Tuesday, so that would at least indicate some level of interest on both ends if true. Chances of Signing: 20%
July 18, 2009
As for the third guy at the Stadium workout last Tuesday, the unconfirmed rumor I head about it being Kyle McKenzie is true. I was in contact with the young righty yesterday and he told me that yes, the Yankees wanted to get a look at him and he had a great time at the Stadium.
July 17, 2009
30th Round, KYLE MCKENZIE: The diminuitive RHP from Massachussets throws gas on the hill, and has a strong commitment to Tulane. As a lifelong Red Sox fan, his selection by the Yankees had to sting a little, but I’ve heard a rumor that he MAY have been the unidentified third guy at The Stadium on Tuesday, so that would at least indicate some level of interest on both ends if true. Chances of Signing: 20%
July 18, 2009
As for the third guy at the Stadium workout last Tuesday, the unconfirmed rumor I head about it being Kyle McKenzie is true. I was in contact with the young righty yesterday and he told me that yes, the Yankees wanted to get a look at him and he had a great time at the Stadium.
Sunday, August 2, 2009
Newbies
In his first night in a Boston uniform last night, Victor Martinez went a less-than-impressive 1-5. When he went 1-5 on June 19, he followed it up with a dismal streak of 0-15 through 4 games. Not this time, though. Today against the Orioles he got a season-high 5 hits, going 5-6 with 4 RBI (also a season-high). It's nice to see V-Mart bounce back like he did today; he also got to see a variety of Boston pitchers in his first game behind the plate, as Clay Buchholz, Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez, and Takashi Saito all got to the mound today.
Newcomer Josh Reddick has also looked impressive in his first two Major League starts. Yesterday, he became the first Red Sox rookie in over twenty years to hit two extra-base knocks in his first Major League start, and today, he hit his first Major League homerun. I love
seeing the young guys, so if J.D. and Bay continue to struggle I'd love to see more of this 22 year-old, who just gives more depth to this Red Sox staff. On soxprospects.com, he's the #2 prospect for the Red Sox, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him optioned back down to double or triple-A in the coming weeks, but when the roster expands to 40 guys on September 1st, we could be seeing deja-vu of the 2007 season, when Jacoby Ellsbury debuted for the Sox and gave them a push through the postseason.
Kasey Kotchman also got some playing time today, his first game with the Red Sox. He did not start, but came in late in the game to hit for Lowell. He went 0-1, but I'm sure Lowell was happy to get the start, go 3-5, and come out early to hit the showers--or whatever old men do after a day's work.
Newcomer Josh Reddick has also looked impressive in his first two Major League starts. Yesterday, he became the first Red Sox rookie in over twenty years to hit two extra-base knocks in his first Major League start, and today, he hit his first Major League homerun. I love
seeing the young guys, so if J.D. and Bay continue to struggle I'd love to see more of this 22 year-old, who just gives more depth to this Red Sox staff. On soxprospects.com, he's the #2 prospect for the Red Sox, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him optioned back down to double or triple-A in the coming weeks, but when the roster expands to 40 guys on September 1st, we could be seeing deja-vu of the 2007 season, when Jacoby Ellsbury debuted for the Sox and gave them a push through the postseason.Kasey Kotchman also got some playing time today, his first game with the Red Sox. He did not start, but came in late in the game to hit for Lowell. He went 0-1, but I'm sure Lowell was happy to get the start, go 3-5, and come out early to hit the showers--or whatever old men do after a day's work.
Stat of the Day: Playing their Cards Right
The St. Louis Cardinals have three starting pitchers with ERAs under 3.00. Chris Carpenter leads the NL with a 2.10 ERA, while Adam Wrainwright has earned 12 wins with his 2.80 ERA, and Joel Pineiro maintains a slim 2.84 ERA. How many Red Sox starters have a sub-3.00 ERA? Zero. What about the Yankees? Zero. Tampa Bay? Nada. As a team, the Cards have the third-lowest ERA in the Majors, to go along with the second-fewest walks. With the acquisition of Matt Holliday (.606 BA, 10 RBI, 3 HR, 1.061 SLG in nine games since joining the Cardinals), look for the Cardinals to make a run here in the second half. As of today, they lead the Cubs by 0.5 games in the NL Central, and are 7-3 in their last ten games.
$100 Million Not-So-Well-Spent
Last Friday, the Red Sox moved Daisuke Matsuzaka from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL. This means he’ll start rehabbing with Pawtucket in two months, at the end of September. Oh, wait, scratch that—Pawtucket’s season ends September 7th. The chances of seeing Daisuke pitch in October for the Red Sox? Well, not so good. Looks like we’ve seen the end of Daisuke this season.
No Vick, No Problem
Well, it is over. No, Mike Vick hasn't signed with a team or anything, but in the Patriots' eyes, it's over. Saturday, Rob Kraft ruled out the possibility of the team signing Vick, a possibility the whole nation speculated the Pats would do. Despite alleged "Vick spottings" late in the week, Kraft said on Sirius Sattelite Radio saturday, "For us, that’s an academic problem because we’ve got the number one player in the world at that position, as far as I’m concerned. Why would we want do anything that would take (quarterback Tom Brady) off the field for one play?" So New England PETA members can calm down now, Vick will not be coming to New England.
Training Camp Update: Bill Belichick has definitely made the opening days of training camp hard, as he scheduled Two-a-Days for the whole first week of training camp. But the players aren't complaining. They know it is important for later in the year, and it only makes them stronger. Rookie Darius Butler has lined up in the #2 CB spot here and there for a couple practices. The secondary seems to have jumped up from 2008. Brandon Merriweather is making good plays, along with 2nd year CB Terrence Wheatley. 2009 Draft picks Chung and Butler have also looked sharp. As far as I can see, OLB Adalius Thomas has been the best player in training camp thus far, making unbelivable plays and being smart. Granted, it's only training camp, but look for Thomas to have a breakout '09.
Training Camp Update: Bill Belichick has definitely made the opening days of training camp hard, as he scheduled Two-a-Days for the whole first week of training camp. But the players aren't complaining. They know it is important for later in the year, and it only makes them stronger. Rookie Darius Butler has lined up in the #2 CB spot here and there for a couple practices. The secondary seems to have jumped up from 2008. Brandon Merriweather is making good plays, along with 2nd year CB Terrence Wheatley. 2009 Draft picks Chung and Butler have also looked sharp. As far as I can see, OLB Adalius Thomas has been the best player in training camp thus far, making unbelivable plays and being smart. Granted, it's only training camp, but look for Thomas to have a breakout '09.
Saturday, August 1, 2009
M. Vick (Not Who You Think)
When you think Virginia Tech QBs, who do you think of? I bet the first name that comes to mind is Vick. After all, no ACC player accounted for more total points for his team than Vick did for VT. He had an ACC-best 6 rush TDs for a quarterback, to go along with 17 passing TDs, 2nd in the ACC. Unfortunately, Vick went undrafted in the 2006 NFL Draft. I’m talking about Marcus Vick, of course, the younger brother of Michael by 4 years. So what happened to this replica of the 2001 Draft’s #1 overall pick? They are both scrambling quarterbacks, they both run a sub-4.50 40-yard dash, they both led Virginia Tech to 11-win seasons, and together scored 61 TDs at Virginia Tech in three seasons. If you look purely at the stats, you could argue that Marcus was the better quarterback of the two. In his only season with Virginia Tech, he completed 61.2% of his passes for 2393 yards and 17 TDs, all three numbers trump those of his older brother’s two seasons at VT.
If Marcus was a better passer on the field, he was worse off the field. His amazing junior year in college should have made him a lock to go in the first few rounds. However, his on-field and off-field demeanor were too foreboding for anyone to give him another chance at football. Countless traffic offenses, speeding tickets galore, possession of marijuana, charges of rape, and unsportsmanlike conduct on the field resulted in his permanent dismissal from the Virginia Tech football program. “It’s not a big deal, I’ll just move on to the next level, baby,” he said—the next level being the 2006 NFL Draft, where he told ESPN that he considered himself better than 1st rounders Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, and his brother Michael Vick. Apparently NFL front offices didn’t think so, as all 32 teams passed on him. What I should say is that NFL front offices acknowledged his talent, but did not anticipate him staying out of legal troubles as he continues his football career, and thus were not consider signing him a good idea. He did end up signing with the Miami Dolphins as a WR/QB/returnman, but played only one game in the NFL. Since the ’06 Draft, those owners, GMs, and coaches who passed on his proved their wisdom. He’s been charged with several traffic violations, including driving with a suspended license; brandishing a firearm, which he claimed was actually his Blackberry cell phone, mistaken for a gun; DUI, eluding police, reckless driving, and driving with a suspended license—all in one night; no wonder he’s not playing professional football! As for his brother, that remains to be seen.
If Marcus was a better passer on the field, he was worse off the field. His amazing junior year in college should have made him a lock to go in the first few rounds. However, his on-field and off-field demeanor were too foreboding for anyone to give him another chance at football. Countless traffic offenses, speeding tickets galore, possession of marijuana, charges of rape, and unsportsmanlike conduct on the field resulted in his permanent dismissal from the Virginia Tech football program. “It’s not a big deal, I’ll just move on to the next level, baby,” he said—the next level being the 2006 NFL Draft, where he told ESPN that he considered himself better than 1st rounders Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, and his brother Michael Vick. Apparently NFL front offices didn’t think so, as all 32 teams passed on him. What I should say is that NFL front offices acknowledged his talent, but did not anticipate him staying out of legal troubles as he continues his football career, and thus were not consider signing him a good idea. He did end up signing with the Miami Dolphins as a WR/QB/returnman, but played only one game in the NFL. Since the ’06 Draft, those owners, GMs, and coaches who passed on his proved their wisdom. He’s been charged with several traffic violations, including driving with a suspended license; brandishing a firearm, which he claimed was actually his Blackberry cell phone, mistaken for a gun; DUI, eluding police, reckless driving, and driving with a suspended license—all in one night; no wonder he’s not playing professional football! As for his brother, that remains to be seen.
Friday, July 31, 2009
Trade Deadline 2009
This is my first ever in-game blog, and I’ll use a play that happened just moments ago in the Sox-O’s game to explain why the Red Sox acquired Casey Kotchman and Victor Martinez, despite already having an All-Star –laden group of infielders.
Matt Wieters on second, Brian Roberts hits a grounder to the backhand of shortstop Nick Green. Not having the best throwing arm, Green decides against making a Jeter-esque jumping toss to get the speedy Roberts at first base. Instead, he opts to make the quick throw to Mike Lowell covering 3rd base so that he can lay down the tag and get the runner trying to advance on a non-force out. 35-year-old Lowell hobbles to the bag so Green can throw him the ball from maybe thirty away. Green throws it low, but not really to either side of the 3rd baseman, who underwent offseason hip surgery. Low is generally a good place to throw the ball when trying to tag out a runner, but not today. It was painful watching Lowell barely to bend his knees, and attempt to make a shoestring catch without moving a single one of the fragile joints in his body. The ball rolled past Lowell, allowing Weiters to not only advance to third, but to score the tying run as the ball went out-of-play into the Sox dugout. The next batter comes to the plate with a runner on second and one out, instead of a runner on first with two outs. With such a favorable situation, he hits a two-run homer that puts Baltimore up by two runs.
So what did this play tell us? Mike Lowell is far from Gold Glove 3rd baseman he was in ’05. We need someone to man the hot corner and give Lowell a rest a few times a week. Who can we put at third? We have Youk, but he’s an excellent defensive 1st baseman, and only a decent fielder at 3rd. So we look to acquire one via trade who can play good defense, all the while able to create runs at the plate. Since there’s no one available, we’re forced to move Youkilis to 3rd base. Adam LaRoche was our original replacement 1st baseman, but his strength is really on offense, rather than on defense. Since we lost some fielding ability by moving Youk away from 1st base, so LaRoche wasn’t the perfect fit. So Theo went to the Braves to trade LaRoche (5-19, 1 HR, 3 RBI in 6 games with the Red Sox) for defensive-minded Casey Kotchman. So here’s the breakdown again: lose defense at first by moving Youkilis to third, but get more offense at third from Youk than from Lowell; get offense with LaRoche, but Theo sees the need for more defense in the infield; gets Kotchman, despite sacrificing a little at the plate.
What about Victory Martinez? Jason Varitek is undoubtedly feeling the wear and tear of his 12-year catching career. His knees, ankles, and shoulder are as beat up as they can be before landing on the DL. His 78 AB in May have decreased in June, and again in July, where he will probably end up seeing close to 62 AB. With all due respect to George Kottaras, he doesn’t belong in a Red Sox uniform; he’s just not good enough. V-Mart will be able to take some pressure off Varitek and his knees, and Tito won’t hesitate to throw him behind the plate because he’s such an offensive force. Plus, he can also play 1st base or DH, offering Papi and Youk/Kotchman the day off. It’s amazing how much flexibility Terry Francona has, lining up his infield. Lowell, Youkilis, Green, Lowrie, Pedroia, Kotchman, Martinez, and Varitek can all play interchangeably. If one needs a rest, or can’t hit righties, Francona won’t have to think twice about giving him the day off; they can all replace each other without the team missing a beat.
However, what is most intriguing about the Martinez deal is how little the Theo ended up giving Cleveland. We kept Buchholz, Bard, and our main pitching prospects of Michael Bowden and Junichi Tazawa, as well as hitting phenom Ryan Westmoreland. We traded middle reliever Justin Masterson, and 1st round draft picks of the 2007 and 2008 Drafts, LHP Nick Hagadone and RHP Bryan Price.
What’d the Yankees do? Roy Halladay? No. Jarrod Washburn? Guess again. Jerry Hairston Jr. is who the Yanks got today. In his 2009 season with the Reds, he was batting a whopping .254 with 8 HR. Whoop dee doo. He’s more of a utility guy, and the Red Sox need not worry about him at all. It was a good day.
Matt Wieters on second, Brian Roberts hits a grounder to the backhand of shortstop Nick Green. Not having the best throwing arm, Green decides against making a Jeter-esque jumping toss to get the speedy Roberts at first base. Instead, he opts to make the quick throw to Mike Lowell covering 3rd base so that he can lay down the tag and get the runner trying to advance on a non-force out. 35-year-old Lowell hobbles to the bag so Green can throw him the ball from maybe thirty away. Green throws it low, but not really to either side of the 3rd baseman, who underwent offseason hip surgery. Low is generally a good place to throw the ball when trying to tag out a runner, but not today. It was painful watching Lowell barely to bend his knees, and attempt to make a shoestring catch without moving a single one of the fragile joints in his body. The ball rolled past Lowell, allowing Weiters to not only advance to third, but to score the tying run as the ball went out-of-play into the Sox dugout. The next batter comes to the plate with a runner on second and one out, instead of a runner on first with two outs. With such a favorable situation, he hits a two-run homer that puts Baltimore up by two runs.
So what did this play tell us? Mike Lowell is far from Gold Glove 3rd baseman he was in ’05. We need someone to man the hot corner and give Lowell a rest a few times a week. Who can we put at third? We have Youk, but he’s an excellent defensive 1st baseman, and only a decent fielder at 3rd. So we look to acquire one via trade who can play good defense, all the while able to create runs at the plate. Since there’s no one available, we’re forced to move Youkilis to 3rd base. Adam LaRoche was our original replacement 1st baseman, but his strength is really on offense, rather than on defense. Since we lost some fielding ability by moving Youk away from 1st base, so LaRoche wasn’t the perfect fit. So Theo went to the Braves to trade LaRoche (5-19, 1 HR, 3 RBI in 6 games with the Red Sox) for defensive-minded Casey Kotchman. So here’s the breakdown again: lose defense at first by moving Youkilis to third, but get more offense at third from Youk than from Lowell; get offense with LaRoche, but Theo sees the need for more defense in the infield; gets Kotchman, despite sacrificing a little at the plate.
What about Victory Martinez? Jason Varitek is undoubtedly feeling the wear and tear of his 12-year catching career. His knees, ankles, and shoulder are as beat up as they can be before landing on the DL. His 78 AB in May have decreased in June, and again in July, where he will probably end up seeing close to 62 AB. With all due respect to George Kottaras, he doesn’t belong in a Red Sox uniform; he’s just not good enough. V-Mart will be able to take some pressure off Varitek and his knees, and Tito won’t hesitate to throw him behind the plate because he’s such an offensive force. Plus, he can also play 1st base or DH, offering Papi and Youk/Kotchman the day off. It’s amazing how much flexibility Terry Francona has, lining up his infield. Lowell, Youkilis, Green, Lowrie, Pedroia, Kotchman, Martinez, and Varitek can all play interchangeably. If one needs a rest, or can’t hit righties, Francona won’t have to think twice about giving him the day off; they can all replace each other without the team missing a beat.
However, what is most intriguing about the Martinez deal is how little the Theo ended up giving Cleveland. We kept Buchholz, Bard, and our main pitching prospects of Michael Bowden and Junichi Tazawa, as well as hitting phenom Ryan Westmoreland. We traded middle reliever Justin Masterson, and 1st round draft picks of the 2007 and 2008 Drafts, LHP Nick Hagadone and RHP Bryan Price.
What’d the Yankees do? Roy Halladay? No. Jarrod Washburn? Guess again. Jerry Hairston Jr. is who the Yanks got today. In his 2009 season with the Reds, he was batting a whopping .254 with 8 HR. Whoop dee doo. He’s more of a utility guy, and the Red Sox need not worry about him at all. It was a good day.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Stat of the Day: Papelbon is WHIPPED
Of all the closers with more than 20 saves, Jonathan Papelbon has the highest WHIP (Walks, Hits per Inning Pitched). If you feel like Pap has been making his outings harder than they need to be, you're right. An average of 1.37 batters get on base per inning he throws, which is a high number for a closer, whose position is based most of all on the ability to get a 1-2-3 inning to end the game.
Stat of the Day: In the Field
People point to a poor back of the rotation, untimely hitting, and lack of offense when they look at the Red Sox' woes. But what about defense? In terms of errors and fielding percentage, the Sox are middle of the pack, 15th and 18th respectively. But they have turned the second fewest double plays, and have allowed the most steals in the Majors, and have the lowest DER of any team. "DER" is an interesting stat I looked up, and it stands for Defense Efficiency Ratio, and it equals the percent of batted balls that are turned into outs by a defense. Boston's .689 DER 
means that only 68.9% of any ball put in play will become an out. A low DER like this typically means that our pitching staff relies too heavily on the strikeout and don't give their fielders a chance to make a play. Not surprisingly, the Sox have the most strikeouts in the AL. Pitchers should be making it a priority to keep their fielders on their toes by making a pitch not that is nit so good it cannot be hit and risk walking too many batters, but a pitch that's bad enough to be hit, but good enough to not be hit well. Look at Derek Lowe's no hitter of 2002: only 6 strikeouts. It's not about striking batters out, it's about recording outs, however that can be done. This seems like the first year where the Red Sox don't really have any defensive specialists--a David Roberts, Alex Cora, Gabe Kapler, or Doug Menkevich-type player.
means that only 68.9% of any ball put in play will become an out. A low DER like this typically means that our pitching staff relies too heavily on the strikeout and don't give their fielders a chance to make a play. Not surprisingly, the Sox have the most strikeouts in the AL. Pitchers should be making it a priority to keep their fielders on their toes by making a pitch not that is nit so good it cannot be hit and risk walking too many batters, but a pitch that's bad enough to be hit, but good enough to not be hit well. Look at Derek Lowe's no hitter of 2002: only 6 strikeouts. It's not about striking batters out, it's about recording outs, however that can be done. This seems like the first year where the Red Sox don't really have any defensive specialists--a David Roberts, Alex Cora, Gabe Kapler, or Doug Menkevich-type player.
Stat of the Day: The Unearned Run
Bartolo Colon and Daniel Cabrera lead the Majors in unearned runs. In just 12 games, 13 unearned runs have found their way to the scoreboard for the North Siders' Colon. He has a decent 4.19 ERA, but a record of only 3-6. Sloppy defense probably has something to do with that. Daniel Cabrera, formerly of the Baltimore Orioles, now with the Washington Nationals, has also given up 13 unearned runs. He is 0-5 in 8 starts with an ERA approaching 6.00. Lo and behold, the Nationals have more errors than any other ballclub, and the White Sox are 5th worst in the MLB.
What the Red Sox Need to Do At the Deadline
What the Red Sox don't need to do is go after Roy Halladay. The Jays are asking for basically our whole farm system to get Halladay for the year and two months left on his contract. As great as Halladay is, I don't think it's worth it. As a team, Red Sox pitching is best in the AL East, and 8th best overall. Smoltz is bound to find his groove one of these days, Daisuke could come back rested in September, Wakefield will soon be off the DL, and Buchholz will continue to settle in. Pitching isn't really our greatest need right now. Furthermore, over his career, Halladay has only a .613 win percentage after the break, compared to a .710 before. Also, Fenway Park is one of only two stadiums at which Halladay has a losing record (5-8)*, and is the only place he has allowed more than 10 HR (15). I don't see Halladay carrying the Sox to the World Series.
Who the Red Sox should continue to pursue is Adrian Gonzalez of the San Diego Padres. Boston only has one player with 20+ HR this year, Jason Bay, while other World Series hopefuls like the Phillies have four. Adrian Gonzalez is this year's Mark Teixera: a good defensive first basemen with the power to hit one deep at any point in the game. With Lowell struggling, Youk could take some load off and play more games at third, leaving first base open for Adrian Gonzalez. Lars Anderson, a top prospect for the Sox, should be included in the deal because, with Gonzalez locked up for the next couple years, Boston could get away with trading this Minor League slugger.
With Pittsburgh's Jack Wilson getting dealt to Seattle in a 7-man trade this afternoon, the market for shortstops is meager. It looks like Nick Green and Jed Lowrie will have to step up their game for the remainder of the season, and be the 10the tenth man who steps up as the season draws to an end.
I can't think of a much better acquisition than Victor Martinez. This great offensive-minded catcher from the Cleveland Indians could take the place of George Kottaras as the backup for Jason Varitek. Kottaras is a non-threat at the plate, and is on the roster simply because he can catch Tim Wakefield. We're seeing more of Kottaras recently, and it seems like Varitek's 37 year-old body isn't up to the task of catching every day. Since 2003, Martinez is the only catcher to rank in the top three in BA, HR, RBI, and TB among catchers.
*mimimum of 2 starts
Who the Red Sox should continue to pursue is Adrian Gonzalez of the San Diego Padres. Boston only has one player with 20+ HR this year, Jason Bay, while other World Series hopefuls like the Phillies have four. Adrian Gonzalez is this year's Mark Teixera: a good defensive first basemen with the power to hit one deep at any point in the game. With Lowell struggling, Youk could take some load off and play more games at third, leaving first base open for Adrian Gonzalez. Lars Anderson, a top prospect for the Sox, should be included in the deal because, with Gonzalez locked up for the next couple years, Boston could get away with trading this Minor League slugger.
With Pittsburgh's Jack Wilson getting dealt to Seattle in a 7-man trade this afternoon, the market for shortstops is meager. It looks like Nick Green and Jed Lowrie will have to step up their game for the remainder of the season, and be the 10the tenth man who steps up as the season draws to an end.
I can't think of a much better acquisition than Victor Martinez. This great offensive-minded catcher from the Cleveland Indians could take the place of George Kottaras as the backup for Jason Varitek. Kottaras is a non-threat at the plate, and is on the roster simply because he can catch Tim Wakefield. We're seeing more of Kottaras recently, and it seems like Varitek's 37 year-old body isn't up to the task of catching every day. Since 2003, Martinez is the only catcher to rank in the top three in BA, HR, RBI, and TB among catchers.
*mimimum of 2 starts
Brett Favre Retires, Take 3
March 4, 2008
Real? No--he decided he wanted to play again the following offseason. After tense diologue between Favre and Green Bay General Manager Ted Thompson, the Packers traded him to the NY Jets on August 7 for a fourth round pick in that year's NFL draft (the took defensive end Jeremy Thompson out of Wake Forest).
Retirement from Jets? Real? This summer, even though it seemed like it we had once again been punk'd, even though Favre had surgery to repair his throwing arm this offseason, even though he once again considered a comeback with the, even though he contacted the Vikings about another return, we'll have to wait another year to see Favre on the field. He told Vikings head coach Brad Childress yesterday he plans to stay retired, saying his mind and body could not endure a 19th season in the NFL. Don't count him out for 2010, though.
In his career, he holds the NFL QB record for: pass attemps, completions, TDs, interceptions, yards, games won, and consecutive games started. Not too shabby.
Real? No--he decided he wanted to play again the following offseason. After tense diologue between Favre and Green Bay General Manager Ted Thompson, the Packers traded him to the NY Jets on August 7 for a fourth round pick in that year's NFL draft (the took defensive end Jeremy Thompson out of Wake Forest).
Retirement from Jets? Real? This summer, even though it seemed like it we had once again been punk'd, even though Favre had surgery to repair his throwing arm this offseason, even though he once again considered a comeback with the, even though he contacted the Vikings about another return, we'll have to wait another year to see Favre on the field. He told Vikings head coach Brad Childress yesterday he plans to stay retired, saying his mind and body could not endure a 19th season in the NFL. Don't count him out for 2010, though.
In his career, he holds the NFL QB record for: pass attemps, completions, TDs, interceptions, yards, games won, and consecutive games started. Not too shabby.
Sunday, July 26, 2009
Stat of the Day: Dan Bard
In rookie Dan Bard's 23 appearances this season, he has allowed an earned run in only three of them. So as you can imagine, his 2.28 ERA is somewhat misleading. In fact, if you discard one outing on June 14 against the Phillies, his ERA would be a microscopic 1.11. The Red Sox are effectively easing Bard into the big leagues: at the end of July, he'll have increased his total innings pitched by one inning each month since his debut on May 13. July has undoubtedly been his best month of the season: in 9.1 innings, he's given up no runs and surrendered only two hits, while K'ing 17 and walking zero. A 17:0 K:BB ratio is unheard of in the Majors, as is averaging 2 strikeouts per inning pitched. Plus--always an important for a reliever--he has yet to give up a HR in his big league career. Look out, Pap.
What's up with That? Mascots
What's up with teams that have mascots as citizens of the city in which the team plays? You know what I mean--Why should I be afraid of natives of Canada? What the hockey team from Montreal needs is a mascot that makes people afraid to play in Canada. The Montral Lynx, The Cougars, the Caribou, something frightening! People indiginous to Canada do not have a reputation as being fierce, agressive, strong, powerful, cunning, or mighty--traits that all mascots should have. Here are some other mascots that have no business being mascots.
Montral Canadiens
Houston Texans
Philadelphia Phillies
Utah Utes
Illinois Fighting Illini
Montral Canadiens
Houston Texans
Philadelphia Phillies
Utah Utes
Illinois Fighting Illini
Favre vs. Vick
Why I’d Want Favre
• One of the best quarterbacks in the history of football
• Familiar with the West Coast Offense that he would play in Minnesota
• Play with something to prove to Green Bay
• Minnesota needs a QB better than Gus Frerotte
• He is an experienced leader who could take the Vikings to a Super Bowl
• One of the best quarterbacks in the history of football
• Familiar with the West Coast Offense that he would play in Minnesota
• Play with something to prove to Green Bay
• Minnesota needs a QB better than Gus Frerotte
• He is an experienced leader who could take the Vikings to a Super Bowl
Why I Wouldn’t Want Favre
• He’s coming off surgery on his throwing arm
• He wouldn’t join the team any sooner than the start of training camp—not really enough time to get to know his receivers, coaches, and new playbook
• He’s practically 40 years old
• He would be asked to be Minnesota’s starting quarterback, which makes signing him a big risk
• If he takes a whole off-season to decide whether to play or not, how committed is he?
• He’s coming off surgery on his throwing arm
• He wouldn’t join the team any sooner than the start of training camp—not really enough time to get to know his receivers, coaches, and new playbook
• He’s practically 40 years old
• He would be asked to be Minnesota’s starting quarterback, which makes signing him a big risk
• If he takes a whole off-season to decide whether to play or not, how committed is he?
Why I’d Want Vick
• If he got signed, it would be with a team that already has a QB in place—he would be a backup/goal line specialist/wildcat quarterback, LOW RISK
• Would keep defenses on their toes if he got a few snaps per game
• He’s a lefty, which defenses aren’t used to seeing
• Dual-threat passer and scrambler, one of the best athletes in the game
• If he got signed, it would be with a team that already has a QB in place—he would be a backup/goal line specialist/wildcat quarterback, LOW RISK
• Would keep defenses on their toes if he got a few snaps per game
• He’s a lefty, which defenses aren’t used to seeing
• Dual-threat passer and scrambler, one of the best athletes in the game
Why I Wouldn’t Want Vick
• Hasn’t played since 2006, probably a little rusty
• Fan backlash, still guilty in the court of public opinion
• Might not be able to play a full season with a team due to a possible 4-game suspension by commissioner Roger Goodell to start the 09-10 season
• Possible distraction for his team
So who would I rather have? I’d rather have Vick. He’s low-risk, and if he signs with his team, he would by no means be the starting quarterback. Instead, a good coach would play him where he’s most dangerous: at the goal line, where defenses would have to be wary of the option pass, the QB draw, or a scrambling Vick. Another place he would be ultra-effective would be in the wildcat formation. The wildcat offense continues to hurt defenses, and no one is more well-suited for the formation than Michael Vick. You could also throw him in the game to return a kickoff or punt; he can avoid tackles as good as anyone in the league, and would be a devastating returnman. As far a team distraction and fan backlash goes, if a team lets one man disrupt an entire locker room, that team has no business playing professional football. I’m always baffled when teams declare that a player like Terrell Owens is responsible for their under-performing. One player cannot possibly cause a whole team to underperform. When each player is able to go out on the field and do his own job to the best of his ability, ignoring fans and media, then you’ve got yourself a team. If Vick lands himself on a team that already has a stable QB, a good receiving crew, a coach that would know how to utilize his skill sets, and has loyal fans that would root for their team before thinking about what having a convicted criminal on your team means, then Vick’s transition back into the NFL should be smoother than ever.
Brett Favre 2008 season with the Jets:
• Threw as many TDs and interceptions for only the third time in his career
• Threw 7 passes for 40+ yards, tied for his lowest since 1996
• Second lowest total passing yards and yards per game since 1993
• Scrambled less than 23 times for the fourth time in his career, feet aren’t what they used to be
• QB rating in 2008 lower than his career QB rating
• Failed to complete a pass longer than 56 yards for the second time in his career
• Compared to his 2007 season, every single passing statistic was worse in his 2008 season
• Hasn’t played since 2006, probably a little rusty
• Fan backlash, still guilty in the court of public opinion
• Might not be able to play a full season with a team due to a possible 4-game suspension by commissioner Roger Goodell to start the 09-10 season
• Possible distraction for his team
So who would I rather have? I’d rather have Vick. He’s low-risk, and if he signs with his team, he would by no means be the starting quarterback. Instead, a good coach would play him where he’s most dangerous: at the goal line, where defenses would have to be wary of the option pass, the QB draw, or a scrambling Vick. Another place he would be ultra-effective would be in the wildcat formation. The wildcat offense continues to hurt defenses, and no one is more well-suited for the formation than Michael Vick. You could also throw him in the game to return a kickoff or punt; he can avoid tackles as good as anyone in the league, and would be a devastating returnman. As far a team distraction and fan backlash goes, if a team lets one man disrupt an entire locker room, that team has no business playing professional football. I’m always baffled when teams declare that a player like Terrell Owens is responsible for their under-performing. One player cannot possibly cause a whole team to underperform. When each player is able to go out on the field and do his own job to the best of his ability, ignoring fans and media, then you’ve got yourself a team. If Vick lands himself on a team that already has a stable QB, a good receiving crew, a coach that would know how to utilize his skill sets, and has loyal fans that would root for their team before thinking about what having a convicted criminal on your team means, then Vick’s transition back into the NFL should be smoother than ever.
Brett Favre 2008 season with the Jets:
• Threw as many TDs and interceptions for only the third time in his career
• Threw 7 passes for 40+ yards, tied for his lowest since 1996
• Second lowest total passing yards and yards per game since 1993
• Scrambled less than 23 times for the fourth time in his career, feet aren’t what they used to be
• QB rating in 2008 lower than his career QB rating
• Failed to complete a pass longer than 56 yards for the second time in his career
• Compared to his 2007 season, every single passing statistic was worse in his 2008 season
What does all this tell us? Brett Favre isn’t what he used to be. Coming off surgery, he will turn 40 in October this year. How much gas does he have left in the tank? Already, people are doubting Kurt Warner, who turned just 38 last month; out of either quarterback, I would expect Warner to have a better 2009 season. Favre should get worn out earlier than Warner, who has taken half the sacks Favre has, and played in less than half as many games, over his career. I don’t see why the Vikings would have so much faith in Favre, yet the Cardinals almost didn’t resign the QB who took them to the Super Bowl, fearing his age might catch up with him. If Favre arrives in training camp in Minnesota, he’ll have to get acquainted with a whole new receiving corps, learn a new playbook, establish himself in the locker room, and prove his worth, all in the six weeks of training camp. Not to mention, he's indecision is keeping the entire Minnesota team wondering who will be their starting quarterback at the start of the season, which is not fair to anyone. Finally, the Vikings have a decent quarterback in Tavaris Jackson: he started the last three regular season games for the Vikings, won two of them, and compiled a 109.0 passer rating, 7 touchdowns to 1 interception, while completing 62% of his passes. Brad Childress, if you can hear me, give Jackson the starting job, and let the Favre saga come to an end. Please.
Saturday, July 25, 2009
Why I Love Sports
"Mandela used sport as a vehicle to make the impossible possible, sport has the power to unite people in a way that little else can, sport can awaken hope where there was previously only despair." Let Barack Obama and Morgan Freeman tell you a story.
Holliday Celebration in St. Louis
In his first game after being traded to the St. Louis Cardinals by the Oakland A’s, Matt Holliday tied a career high in hits, going 4-5. In his 93 games with the Athletics, he had got 4 hits in a game only twice. Yesterday in Philly, he also had a stolen base, a double, and an RBI. I don’t think this will be a flash in the pan for Holliday; I predict a great second-half from this three-time All-Star. Moving to the NL, he might be another Edgar Renteria-type player, who seems to thrive exclusively in the National League. (Renteria played in Boston in 2005 and in Detroit last year. Since 2002, his ’05 and ’08 totals are his two worst seasons in SB, BA, SLG, OPS, HR, E, and FPCT.) Matt Holliday was a huge success in Colorado playing in the NL, and now that he’s back in his comfort zone, we’ll see more of the 2006-2008 Holliday, who won three consecutive Silver Slugger Awards and three consecutive trips to the All-Star game. Another reason he’ll continue to hit with St. Louis is that he is now on a competitive team where every game matters. Oakland is 17.0 games behind the Angels in the NL West and has the worst attendance in all of baseball. St. Louis leads the NL Central and has the fifth-best attendance in the MLB. Holliday prefers a full stadium, as evidenced by his .428 BA in stadiums that average more than 30,000 fans per game, compared to his .270 BA everywhere else. The Cardinals’ Busch Stadium averages over 40,000 per game, so look for continued success from Matt Holliday in St. Louis this season.
What the Mariners and King Leonidas Have in Common
Team chemistry is an often overlooked piece to a team’s success. The New York Yankees would be the classic example of that: George/Hank Steinbrenner shells out boatloads of cash to buy any All-Star he can get his hands on, and then expects them all to coexist in the same locker room. Those hotshots are not used to sharing attention, and their performance often takes a hit. But then look at the Red Sox. This generation of BoSox has been the most fun-loving team in all of sports, I’d say. From Kevin Millar’s “Cowboy Up” to Nomar fastening Pedro to a bullpen pole, to Manny Being Manny, team chemistry has not been a problem at Fenway. Let’s take a peek at how their chemistry has carried over to on-field performance: Red Sox, two World Series; Yankees, zero World Series. Where the importance of team chemistry manifests itself most is undoubtedly in the midst of a playoff run. When teammates can rally around each other, amazing skillsets and superstar talent take a back seat role. Since 2004, Boston has won 28 postseason games, and the Yanks have won 11.
But a novel kind of team chemistry attracted my attention a little while ago when the Sox played against the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners bullpen’s chemistry is something else. Talk about 
things to rally around! The Red Sox had reversing the curse, and the Mariners bullpen has the movie “300”. Three year veteran reliever Mark Lowe started the tradition of hoisting gladiator-esque warrior helmets above the bullpen before each game. As Lowe explains it, “We all stick together and we’re all there for each other…it kind of symbolizes our mindset. When Lowe and the rest of the ‘pen watched the movie, they fell in love with it, and thought the message of camaraderie was fitting for their bullpen. Since then, they have found a replica of King Leonidas’s warrior mask, and started carrying it out the bullpen with them before each game. Now, they have a number of helmets, including Russell Crowe’s spiked helmet from the movie “Gladiator”. “Being the idiots that we are,” Lowe said, “we’ve taken it to extremes”. A self-proclaimed group of idiots, eh? Well, that worked for the 2004 Red Sox, whom Johnny Damon called “a bunch of idiots”. Having fun and team chemistry is an oft-forgotten-about criterion for a winning team. So far, it’s been working for the Mariners, who have the AL’s third-best bullpen ERA, lead the MLB in saves, and have one of the best closers in the game in former Red-Sock David Aardsma. I wouldn’t be surprised if the lighthearted atmosphere of the Seattle bullpen spills over to the rest of clubhouse, and the Mariners start to make a push in the competitive AL West, where they trail the Angels by 6.5 games.
But a novel kind of team chemistry attracted my attention a little while ago when the Sox played against the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners bullpen’s chemistry is something else. Talk about things to rally around! The Red Sox had reversing the curse, and the Mariners bullpen has the movie “300”. Three year veteran reliever Mark Lowe started the tradition of hoisting gladiator-esque warrior helmets above the bullpen before each game. As Lowe explains it, “We all stick together and we’re all there for each other…it kind of symbolizes our mindset. When Lowe and the rest of the ‘pen watched the movie, they fell in love with it, and thought the message of camaraderie was fitting for their bullpen. Since then, they have found a replica of King Leonidas’s warrior mask, and started carrying it out the bullpen with them before each game. Now, they have a number of helmets, including Russell Crowe’s spiked helmet from the movie “Gladiator”. “Being the idiots that we are,” Lowe said, “we’ve taken it to extremes”. A self-proclaimed group of idiots, eh? Well, that worked for the 2004 Red Sox, whom Johnny Damon called “a bunch of idiots”. Having fun and team chemistry is an oft-forgotten-about criterion for a winning team. So far, it’s been working for the Mariners, who have the AL’s third-best bullpen ERA, lead the MLB in saves, and have one of the best closers in the game in former Red-Sock David Aardsma. I wouldn’t be surprised if the lighthearted atmosphere of the Seattle bullpen spills over to the rest of clubhouse, and the Mariners start to make a push in the competitive AL West, where they trail the Angels by 6.5 games.Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Doc in Phil?
The Roy Halladay trade talks have been dwindling recently. According to Blue Jays’ GM J.P. Ricciardi, no team has been “aggressive” enough. The Jays are in rebuilding mode, so an aggressive trade would include a few top prospects, including a pitcher. In Boston, few were willing to throw in touted righty Clay Buchholz; in the Big Apple, flamethrower Joba Chamberlain was untouchable; in Philly, 22 year-old Kyle Drabek was considered too good to give up. Until now, that is. It appears that the Philadelphia Phillies are warming up to the idea of parting with their top pitching prospect. But why would a team running away with the NL East (9-game win streak, 6.0 game lead) surrender the most important building block of their farm system for an aging pitcher that historically pitches better before the All-Star Break than after?
For one, Halladay isn’t any ordinary aging pitcher. If he joined 46 year-old Jamie Moyer on the Phillies rotation, Philly would be home to two of the biggest freaks of nature in the Major Leagues. Thirty-two year-old Roy Halladay has amazingly pitched 7+ innings in 16 of his 18 total starts this season, and has a miniscule 2.73 ERA. Even though Moyer’s 23-year Major League experience is valuable in the clubhouse, having a pitcher who is pushing 50 won’t win you the World Series. Sure, he’ll win some games along the way, and his experience is valuable in the clubhouse, but with a 9-6 record, Moyer has shown that he can be hit. What the Phillies lack is a lights-out starter. It’s debatable whether they actually need one at this point in the season, as their explosive offense can keep them atop an ever-weakening NL East. They lead the NL in runs scored, as well as in home runs hit. However, pitching wins in the postseason. If you can assemble three or four pitchers in whom you are confident they can pull out a win against any team, you’re in good shape. And I don’t think the Phillies have that right now. Jamie Moyer is their winningest pitcher, but has defeated only one team with a record better than .500—the Brewers (48-46). Joe Blanton has a career record of barely .500, and Cole Hamels’s season (5-5, 4.72) has been disappointing to say the least. Even with all this said, for now, the Phills probably don’t need Halladay—they have their division locked up, and don’t really need a playoff push at the end of the season. If they make a move to acquire Doc, it’s not a sign that Charlie Manuel isn’t comfortable with his rotation the way it is now; it’s a sign he plans on needing a sure-fire starter, come October.
For one, Halladay isn’t any ordinary aging pitcher. If he joined 46 year-old Jamie Moyer on the Phillies rotation, Philly would be home to two of the biggest freaks of nature in the Major Leagues. Thirty-two year-old Roy Halladay has amazingly pitched 7+ innings in 16 of his 18 total starts this season, and has a miniscule 2.73 ERA. Even though Moyer’s 23-year Major League experience is valuable in the clubhouse, having a pitcher who is pushing 50 won’t win you the World Series. Sure, he’ll win some games along the way, and his experience is valuable in the clubhouse, but with a 9-6 record, Moyer has shown that he can be hit. What the Phillies lack is a lights-out starter. It’s debatable whether they actually need one at this point in the season, as their explosive offense can keep them atop an ever-weakening NL East. They lead the NL in runs scored, as well as in home runs hit. However, pitching wins in the postseason. If you can assemble three or four pitchers in whom you are confident they can pull out a win against any team, you’re in good shape. And I don’t think the Phillies have that right now. Jamie Moyer is their winningest pitcher, but has defeated only one team with a record better than .500—the Brewers (48-46). Joe Blanton has a career record of barely .500, and Cole Hamels’s season (5-5, 4.72) has been disappointing to say the least. Even with all this said, for now, the Phills probably don’t need Halladay—they have their division locked up, and don’t really need a playoff push at the end of the season. If they make a move to acquire Doc, it’s not a sign that Charlie Manuel isn’t comfortable with his rotation the way it is now; it’s a sign he plans on needing a sure-fire starter, come October.
Monday, July 20, 2009
Stat of the Day: The Error
According to baseball writer Bill James, the “error” is one of the most useless and misleading statistics in baseball. “It’s a moral judgment” he says, “you have to do something right to get an error; even if the ball is right at you, then you were standing in the right place to begin with”. I don’t disagree with him. An outfielder could get a great break on a ball, take the right angle towards it, and get within an arm’s reach of a well-hit fly ball. If it bounces off his glove, he gets an error. On the other hand, if an outfielder does not judge the trajectory of the ball correctly, he ends up taking one step forward, one back, then sprints forward, only to slide and miss a shoestring catch that ends up as a triple, he’s off the hook. Who would you rather have? The one who can determine the path of the ball exquisitely but occasionally drops a can-a-corn, or the one who reliably has to field the ball on a bounce because he has no idea where it’s going when it leaves the bat? I’ll take the former any day of the week. To prove that simply watching a player cannot accurately judge his defensive prowess, he tells you to think about this: “If [the batter] hits a smash down the line and the third baseman makes a diving stop and throws the runner out, then we notice and applaud the third baseman. But until the smash is hit, who is watching the third baseman? If he anticipates, if he adjusts for the hitter and moves over just two steps, then the same smash is a routine backhand stop—and nobody applauds”. I do think errors are an important statistic, but by no means do they tell you all you need to know about a player’s defensive ability. Here’s some stats to look at.
Since 1995, Derek Jeter has committed the most errors of any player. In that time, he’s won three Gold Gloves. Craig Biggio has the most errors of any second basemen in that time—he has four Gold Gloves to his name. Since 1999, the four top error-committers have been shortstops. By no means does that mean they are poor fielders. On the contrary, shortstop is where managers like to play their best defensive players. They commit so many “errors” because they can get to many more balls and have so many chances to commit an “error” than any other fielder. Brandon Inge and David Wright, two of the most amazing fielders in the game (Web Gems, anyone?) are two of the worst thirty defensive players in the MLB, according to the error stat.
In case you’re wondering, this Bill James character invented his own statistic that he feels measures a player’s defensive ability more accurately. It’s called the range factor: (putouts + assists) ÷ innings played. Instead of counting the number of mistakes a position player made, it counts all the successful plays made in the field and does not penalize a player for dropping a ball he might have made a great play just to get to.
Since 1995, Derek Jeter has committed the most errors of any player. In that time, he’s won three Gold Gloves. Craig Biggio has the most errors of any second basemen in that time—he has four Gold Gloves to his name. Since 1999, the four top error-committers have been shortstops. By no means does that mean they are poor fielders. On the contrary, shortstop is where managers like to play their best defensive players. They commit so many “errors” because they can get to many more balls and have so many chances to commit an “error” than any other fielder. Brandon Inge and David Wright, two of the most amazing fielders in the game (Web Gems, anyone?) are two of the worst thirty defensive players in the MLB, according to the error stat.
In case you’re wondering, this Bill James character invented his own statistic that he feels measures a player’s defensive ability more accurately. It’s called the range factor: (putouts + assists) ÷ innings played. Instead of counting the number of mistakes a position player made, it counts all the successful plays made in the field and does not penalize a player for dropping a ball he might have made a great play just to get to.
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Stat of the Day: Around the MLB
Of the nine batters with the most home runs in the Major Leagues, seven play in the National League. So much for the designated hitter. In fact, Toronto’s Adam Lind has the most HR of any DH with 20—good enough to be tied for 16th in the MLB.
Only three Red Sox position players have played 80+ games this year, the fewest in the AL East; four Blue Jays have played 90+ games. Albert Pujols leads the Majors, and is the only player to have played in 92 games this season. More than anything else, this stat shows the depth of the Red Sox roster. They have the flexibility to give a player the day off, without sacrificing much on either side of the field. Whereas most teams are only comfortable starting their starters, Tito can use his backups without so much as a second thought.
Only three Red Sox position players have played 80+ games this year, the fewest in the AL East; four Blue Jays have played 90+ games. Albert Pujols leads the Majors, and is the only player to have played in 92 games this season. More than anything else, this stat shows the depth of the Red Sox roster. They have the flexibility to give a player the day off, without sacrificing much on either side of the field. Whereas most teams are only comfortable starting their starters, Tito can use his backups without so much as a second thought.
Saturday, July 18, 2009
Say Bye-Bye to EEI
WBCN, 104.1 The Rock of Boston will soon air only live on the internet, coming off the radio for good. Actually, if you have an HD radio receiver, you'll still be able to hear it through the radio on 98.5 HD 2. Replacing WBCN will be Mix 98.5, becoming Mix 104. Now, I don't know the logistics of changing one's frequency on the radio, but I assume 104.1's reception is somehow better than 98.5's. So what will be on 98.5? The first and only FM sports radio in Boston. CBS is launching a new FM sports radio campaign, in Boston under the title of "The Sports Hub", and will air "a wide assortment of sports talk and play-by-play programming", according to CBS. Starting August 13, it will also become the new home of the Patriots and Bruins. It will compete with the AM station WEEI, which, ironically, was owned by CBS up until 1982. It started its sports programming when it was sold to the Boston Celtics in 1991.
I like the move. FM undoubtedly gets better reception in the Boston area, and radios that broadcast on FM and AM frequencies are getting harder to find. I'll love not having to pay an extra 20 bucks for a radio that carries both broadcasting formats, just so I can get my sports radio fix.
AM radio has been around since the 1900s, and not until the 1980s did FM start being widely used, despite being patented in 1931. First it was music, then talk, now sports are all switching over to FM broadcasting. WEEI was really the only reason I ever had to turn to an AM station. Now, with FM radio being more convenient and having higher sound quality, I think sports fans will stop fiddling with their radios to switch to AM, and will instead opt to turn to FM 98.5 The Sports Hub. Unfortunately, unless Red Sox and Patriots play-by-play keeps it around, I don't think WEEI will stick around much longer.
I like the move. FM undoubtedly gets better reception in the Boston area, and radios that broadcast on FM and AM frequencies are getting harder to find. I'll love not having to pay an extra 20 bucks for a radio that carries both broadcasting formats, just so I can get my sports radio fix.
AM radio has been around since the 1900s, and not until the 1980s did FM start being widely used, despite being patented in 1931. First it was music, then talk, now sports are all switching over to FM broadcasting. WEEI was really the only reason I ever had to turn to an AM station. Now, with FM radio being more convenient and having higher sound quality, I think sports fans will stop fiddling with their radios to switch to AM, and will instead opt to turn to FM 98.5 The Sports Hub. Unfortunately, unless Red Sox and Patriots play-by-play keeps it around, I don't think WEEI will stick around much longer.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Buchholz to Debut Friday
Boston's top pitching prospect Clay Buchholz is set to make his Red Sox 2009 debut this Friday against the Toronto Blue Jays in Toronto. Buchholz is 0-2 with a 4.22 ERA in his career against Toronto. What's the reasoning behind this decision? Read on to find out.
Last year, we saw Clay Buchholz crumble under all the media/fan hype, after his 2007 no-hitter and subsequent 3-1 record, 1.59 ERA. He was a kid, only 22 years old, and we Bostonians thought he would be the next big thing in Boston. However, in 2008, things didn't click for Buchholz. He still had good stuff—low to mid-90s fastball to go along with a devastating curve—but he struggled with his control, as he allowed .54 walks per inning, compared to .45 an inning in 2007. He gave up 11 homers in only 15 starts, and accumulated an ERA of 6.75. So this season, Theo tried to keep the Buchholz buzz to a minimum, keeping him in Triple-A until the right moment came. In Pawtucket, where he was able to avoid the spotlight, he thrived. His walks per inning dropped to .30, his ERA fell to 2.36, and his WHIP is under 1.0. Most other ballclubs would rush such a lights-out AAA pitcher into joining their 40-man roster. But the Red Sox aren’t like most ballclubs. Theo let him start 16 games in Pawtucket, and only now brings him up to start a game against the Blue Jays. In Buchholz’s one start against Toronto last year, he got the loss, pitched six innings, and gave up four runs, though he did manage to strikeout eight Blue Jays. I don’t think Buchholz will stay in the rotation, which already has five above average starters. But letting the youngster get some more experience, little by little, will hopefully make Buchholz Major League-ready come 2010, when Penny and Smoltz will both become free agents, and the Sox have club options on Beckett and Wakefield. I think Theo himself got caught up in Buchholz’s 2007 triumphs, and mistakenly brought him into the Majors before he was ready. So, for the remainder of this year, look for Buchholz to make periodic starts with the Sox, and maybe even come out of the bullpen. This gradual re-introduction in the Major Leagues will prime this young hurler for his future with the Sox.
But, let’s not forget about the other possible explanation for Buchholz’s unexpected start. It is somewhat curious that Theo decided to give Buchholz the nod against the Blue Jays the first day after the All-Star Break. One might expect his 2009 debut to come in the middle of a long stretch without off-days, when our starting five might need a rest day. However, none of our starters have pitched since last Sunday, and they should all be fresh. Yet, Buchholz, our top pitching prospect, is making his first start of the season instead. Why not let Lester, who is 2-0 with a 1.45 against Toronto this season, including a 12 strikeout performance back on May 31? Well, here’s why. After Buchholz’s lackadaisical 2008, his trade value has plummeted. Following his no-hitter and September success in Boston in ‘07, he was gold. Everyone wanted to get their hands on Clay Buchholz. But now, all teams see is that Clay can dominate Triple-A hitters, but can’t do so much in the Majors. After all, his 2-9, 2008 campaign can’t be overshadowed by his no-hitter against the Orioles two years ago. Anyways, the Red Sox are reported to be interested in acquiring Blue Jays’ ace Roy Halladay, whom Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi is prepared to trade, should a team aggressively step up and offer a superb set of prospects, which would ideally include at least one top pitching prospect. Well, what better way to showcase our top pitching prospect to Ricciardi than to have him dominate his own Toronto hitters? If Theo is serious about acquiring Halladay, we’ll probably have to part with Buchholz, and the more his trade value rises before the July 31st deadline, the less we’ll have to give up in addition to Buchholz. Personally, I think the Red Sox are World Series material without Halladay, whom we would have trouble resigning when his contract expires at the end of 2010; I hope the first scenario is really what the Red Sox front office is trying to do, not attempting to pump up Buchholz’s market value in an attempt to trade for Roy Halladay.
Mad at Madden
Tim Wakefield didn’t pitch in Monday’s All-Star Game, and Joe Madden has slid a notch in my book. No, just being there isn’t a thrill for the 42-year old, no matter how much he might say it is. I was disgusted to see Wakefield relaxing in the bullpen with his feet up, while the AL closers came in to finish off the game. He’ll probably never get another chance to pitch in the All-Star Game, and the least Madden could have done is put him in for an inning just to throw the NL batters for a loop with his knuckleball. Most of them have never seen a knuckleball, and Wake has won three of the four games he started against NL teams. Mark Buehrle has decent stuff, but he’s basically Johan Santana in a White Sox uniform—nothing the NL isn’t used to seeing. And second of all, this was Buehrle’s fourth All-Star appearance, and in the 2005 Midsummer Classic, he threw two scoreless innings. I think he’s had his All-Star Game fill. Joe Madden must have known how much Red Sox Nation wanted to see the second-oldest first-time All-Star pitch, so why couldn’t he have let him thrown one freakin’ inning?
As an aside, we’ve been hearing about how Satchel Paige was the oldest first-time All-Star in Major League history, when he represented the St. Louis Browns on the American League team in 1952 at the ripe age of 46. In a rain-shortened game, he did not get a chance to pitch. However, the next year, he was again on the American League All-Star team, and he pitched an inning, while giving up three hits and two runs.
As an aside, we’ve been hearing about how Satchel Paige was the oldest first-time All-Star in Major League history, when he represented the St. Louis Browns on the American League team in 1952 at the ripe age of 46. In a rain-shortened game, he did not get a chance to pitch. However, the next year, he was again on the American League All-Star team, and he pitched an inning, while giving up three hits and two runs.
A Look Back, and a Look Forward
Here we are, twilight of the 2009 All-Star Break. I’d like to take a moment to look back on how the standings looked at this time last year.
Let’s start with the AL. The improbable story of the 2008 Rays has grown all the more probable. Whereas last season, they stood atop the AL East virtually the whole year, today, they stand 6.5 games back of Boston in the East, good enough for third place. Right about where they belong. I get goosebumps just reminiscing about that ungodly situation for the BoSox. Chasing the Rays! Eesh! Glad that’s over. What I did like about last year’s AL East race was the Yanks finding themselves 12.5 games back of first place at the end of August. Today, they’re 3.0 back of Boston, even as their rotation and bullpen struggle mightily. I think 2008’s AL East was nothing more than a fluke. The Rays are back in the doghouse, and get used to seeing the Yankees in our rear view mirror. As for the AL Central, the Royals and Indians are in an even worse situation than last year’s combined .442 winning percentage at the break. This year, neither have won 40 games (two of the three AL teams to have less than 40 wins), and have a combined winning percentage barely over .400. Last year’s letdown season for the Tigers is no more—they’re now at the top of the division. However, that turnaround could also be accounted for by the struggles of Detroit’s main competition, the White Sox and Twins. Combined, they’re only three games over .500, and have basically handed the division to the Tigers, who have the worst record of any first place team in baseball. As for the West, the last time the Angles did not win the division was 2003, back when they were the Anaheim Angels. So it’s no surprise to see them atop the leaderboard there. The Rangers continue to progress, this year looking like a real contender for the first time in a long time. Even without Josh Hamilton for a large portion of the season, they’ve managed to keep the Angels honest, even leading the division as late as July 10th. Another change is in Oakland. Whereas last year they were seven games above .500, and second in the West, this year they are one of three AL teams to have less than 40 wins, and are 12.0 games back of first place.
The biggest shocker in the National League has to be in the NL West. At this time last year, the Diamondbacks were in the lead with a 47-48 record. It was the only division to not have a single team above .500. (Every other division had three teams with at least .500 records.) Yet this year, it is arguably the best division in baseball. Colorado has the median number of wins: 46—which is the best median record in the National League. The Dodgers have the best record in baseball, and San Francisco and Colorado are the top contenders in the Wild Card race. Turning to the Central, last year the Cubbies had the best record in baseball, and had the division locked up, leading St. Louis by 4.5 games. This year, with no team ready to step up and make a run for it, it’s a toss-up: five—count ‘em five—teams are within 4.5 games of the lead, and St. Louis is currently at the top, but with the worst record of any first place team in all of baseball. The West went from being the worst division in baseball to the best, and the Central has gone from one of the best divisions to one of the worst. In the NL East, the story has to be the not-so-Amazin’s. The Mets are under .500 by four games, and are ahead of only the Nationals in their division. At this time last year, they were in the hunt, only .05 games behind the Phillies. And other than the struggles of the injury-stricken Mets, the NL East standings are pretty stable compared to last year. Florida’s youth keeps them competitive, and the Braves are regaining some respect after their 14 consecutive playoff appearance streak came to an end in 2006.
Last year, only one team that led its division at the All-Star Break lost that lead by the end of the season. This year, I don’t think any will. The only change I predict by the end of the season will be the American League Wild Card: the Yankees will fall out of first place, and the Rangers will make the playoffs for the first time since 1999. They start the second half with 12 of 15 games at home, which should get them off to a great start. They’re potent offense led by Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, and Josh Hamilton, along with a reliable bullpen will power them past the heavy hitters in NY. In the NL Wild Card, the starting rotation in San Francisco will fend off the Rockies, who are nipping at their heels, and all the league leaders will remain the same as the season continues.
Let’s start with the AL. The improbable story of the 2008 Rays has grown all the more probable. Whereas last season, they stood atop the AL East virtually the whole year, today, they stand 6.5 games back of Boston in the East, good enough for third place. Right about where they belong. I get goosebumps just reminiscing about that ungodly situation for the BoSox. Chasing the Rays! Eesh! Glad that’s over. What I did like about last year’s AL East race was the Yanks finding themselves 12.5 games back of first place at the end of August. Today, they’re 3.0 back of Boston, even as their rotation and bullpen struggle mightily. I think 2008’s AL East was nothing more than a fluke. The Rays are back in the doghouse, and get used to seeing the Yankees in our rear view mirror. As for the AL Central, the Royals and Indians are in an even worse situation than last year’s combined .442 winning percentage at the break. This year, neither have won 40 games (two of the three AL teams to have less than 40 wins), and have a combined winning percentage barely over .400. Last year’s letdown season for the Tigers is no more—they’re now at the top of the division. However, that turnaround could also be accounted for by the struggles of Detroit’s main competition, the White Sox and Twins. Combined, they’re only three games over .500, and have basically handed the division to the Tigers, who have the worst record of any first place team in baseball. As for the West, the last time the Angles did not win the division was 2003, back when they were the Anaheim Angels. So it’s no surprise to see them atop the leaderboard there. The Rangers continue to progress, this year looking like a real contender for the first time in a long time. Even without Josh Hamilton for a large portion of the season, they’ve managed to keep the Angels honest, even leading the division as late as July 10th. Another change is in Oakland. Whereas last year they were seven games above .500, and second in the West, this year they are one of three AL teams to have less than 40 wins, and are 12.0 games back of first place.
The biggest shocker in the National League has to be in the NL West. At this time last year, the Diamondbacks were in the lead with a 47-48 record. It was the only division to not have a single team above .500. (Every other division had three teams with at least .500 records.) Yet this year, it is arguably the best division in baseball. Colorado has the median number of wins: 46—which is the best median record in the National League. The Dodgers have the best record in baseball, and San Francisco and Colorado are the top contenders in the Wild Card race. Turning to the Central, last year the Cubbies had the best record in baseball, and had the division locked up, leading St. Louis by 4.5 games. This year, with no team ready to step up and make a run for it, it’s a toss-up: five—count ‘em five—teams are within 4.5 games of the lead, and St. Louis is currently at the top, but with the worst record of any first place team in all of baseball. The West went from being the worst division in baseball to the best, and the Central has gone from one of the best divisions to one of the worst. In the NL East, the story has to be the not-so-Amazin’s. The Mets are under .500 by four games, and are ahead of only the Nationals in their division. At this time last year, they were in the hunt, only .05 games behind the Phillies. And other than the struggles of the injury-stricken Mets, the NL East standings are pretty stable compared to last year. Florida’s youth keeps them competitive, and the Braves are regaining some respect after their 14 consecutive playoff appearance streak came to an end in 2006.
Last year, only one team that led its division at the All-Star Break lost that lead by the end of the season. This year, I don’t think any will. The only change I predict by the end of the season will be the American League Wild Card: the Yankees will fall out of first place, and the Rangers will make the playoffs for the first time since 1999. They start the second half with 12 of 15 games at home, which should get them off to a great start. They’re potent offense led by Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, and Josh Hamilton, along with a reliable bullpen will power them past the heavy hitters in NY. In the NL Wild Card, the starting rotation in San Francisco will fend off the Rockies, who are nipping at their heels, and all the league leaders will remain the same as the season continues.
Sunday, July 12, 2009
Midsummer Classic Preview
Here are my picks for the 2009 MLB All-Star Game at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri.
1. The finals of the Home Run Derby will be Detroit’s catcher-turned-third-basemen-turned-power hitter, Brandon Inge, against San Diego’s first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. These two contestants have the highest HR/2B ratio in the competition. To me, this stat shows that, given a pitch in their strike zone, they’re not going to hit a double because they have the strength and athleticism to hit it out of the park. Since they’re not going to get anything out of their strike zone on Monday, they won’t be hitting any balls to the wall; just homers.
2. Adrian Gonzalez will win the Home Run Derby. He’s tied for the second-most HRs in all of baseball, and has been a consistent power hitter throughout his career. He’s missed one game the past three seasons, so with a day of rest he’s not accustomed to, he will be fresher than ever. At 27, he’s in the best shape of his career. He’s on pace to shatter his career high 36 home runs, and picked up his first stolen base of his career early this season. He’s on a cold streak, picking up only four home runs since the start of June, but I think he’ll find his power stroke by Monday.
3. Tim Lincecum will start the All-Star Game for the NL. Last year’s NL Cy Young Award winner will only be asked to throw a couple innings, he’ll be able to give it all he’s got for 30 pitches or so. Come Tuesday, Lincecum will have a full five days of rest and will be ready to throw. NL leader in wins, Jason Marquis, pitched yesterday, so he’d be coming off two day’s rest, which is not enough time to fully recover. Lincecum is an enthusiastic youngster, who will be pumped up to represent his league; so he’ll put forth more of an effort than a veteran like Johan Santana might. He leads the NL by almost twenty strikeouts with 149, and his unorthodox delivery might trouble some American Leaguers. Critics say he'll have a short career because of his strenuous wind-up, so one would hope he'll be able to take advantage of his oppertunities while he can. Honorable mention: Chris Carpenter—when he’s healthy, there’s no one better. A Cardinal, he’d get a friendly welcome from his fans in St. Louis. He missed an entire month with a rib injury, but he has a WHIP under .90, which you seldom see from a starter, and has an ERA under 2.50. It’s a shame the injury bug has plagued this one-time Cy Young winner for essentially his whole career.
4. Zack Greinke will start the All-Star Game for the AL. Early this year, we saw what this 25-year old is capable of: through his first 6 starts, he had 6 wins with an ERA of 0.40, 54 Ks against just 8 walks. When Greinke’s on, he’s virtually unhittable. Three years ago, he missed considerable amounts of time after being diagnosed with social anxiety disorder and depression, and to start in the All-Star Game this year would really be a great story. He has faltered a bit recently, but I would too if I figured out I could go six innings, with six strikeouts and one walk, give up two runs, and come up with the loss. The only thing Greinke’s done wrong this season is pitch for the Royals. They have scored the second fewest runs in the Majors this year (under four per game), which means Greinke needs to be utterly perfect in order to pick up a win. He has the lowest ERA in the AL, and has 10 wins. Ten wins is respectable, but if Wakefield can pick up 11 wins with a 4.31 ERA, imagine how many Greinke would have if he were pitching for an offense like the Red Sox. Wins can be deceiving, as they are dependent on how much run support a pitcher gets. Greinke is first in the AL in ERA and HR allowed, and is second in Ks, BBs, and WHIP.
1. The finals of the Home Run Derby will be Detroit’s catcher-turned-third-basemen-turned-power hitter, Brandon Inge, against San Diego’s first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. These two contestants have the highest HR/2B ratio in the competition. To me, this stat shows that, given a pitch in their strike zone, they’re not going to hit a double because they have the strength and athleticism to hit it out of the park. Since they’re not going to get anything out of their strike zone on Monday, they won’t be hitting any balls to the wall; just homers.
2. Adrian Gonzalez will win the Home Run Derby. He’s tied for the second-most HRs in all of baseball, and has been a consistent power hitter throughout his career. He’s missed one game the past three seasons, so with a day of rest he’s not accustomed to, he will be fresher than ever. At 27, he’s in the best shape of his career. He’s on pace to shatter his career high 36 home runs, and picked up his first stolen base of his career early this season. He’s on a cold streak, picking up only four home runs since the start of June, but I think he’ll find his power stroke by Monday.
3. Tim Lincecum will start the All-Star Game for the NL. Last year’s NL Cy Young Award winner will only be asked to throw a couple innings, he’ll be able to give it all he’s got for 30 pitches or so. Come Tuesday, Lincecum will have a full five days of rest and will be ready to throw. NL leader in wins, Jason Marquis, pitched yesterday, so he’d be coming off two day’s rest, which is not enough time to fully recover. Lincecum is an enthusiastic youngster, who will be pumped up to represent his league; so he’ll put forth more of an effort than a veteran like Johan Santana might. He leads the NL by almost twenty strikeouts with 149, and his unorthodox delivery might trouble some American Leaguers. Critics say he'll have a short career because of his strenuous wind-up, so one would hope he'll be able to take advantage of his oppertunities while he can. Honorable mention: Chris Carpenter—when he’s healthy, there’s no one better. A Cardinal, he’d get a friendly welcome from his fans in St. Louis. He missed an entire month with a rib injury, but he has a WHIP under .90, which you seldom see from a starter, and has an ERA under 2.50. It’s a shame the injury bug has plagued this one-time Cy Young winner for essentially his whole career.4. Zack Greinke will start the All-Star Game for the AL. Early this year, we saw what this 25-year old is capable of: through his first 6 starts, he had 6 wins with an ERA of 0.40, 54 Ks against just 8 walks. When Greinke’s on, he’s virtually unhittable. Three years ago, he missed considerable amounts of time after being diagnosed with social anxiety disorder and depression, and to start in the All-Star Game this year would really be a great story. He has faltered a bit recently, but I would too if I figured out I could go six innings, with six strikeouts and one walk, give up two runs, and come up with the loss. The only thing Greinke’s done wrong this season is pitch for the Royals. They have scored the second fewest runs in the Majors this year (under four per game), which means Greinke needs to be utterly perfect in order to pick up a win. He has the lowest ERA in the AL, and has 10 wins. Ten wins is respectable, but if Wakefield can pick up 11 wins with a 4.31 ERA, imagine how many Greinke would have if he were pitching for an offense like the Red Sox. Wins can be deceiving, as they are dependent on how much run support a pitcher gets. Greinke is first in the AL in ERA and HR allowed, and is second in Ks, BBs, and WHIP.
Curse of the HR Derby?
Nowadays, you'll hear players cop out of the HR Derby, claiming that, "it messes up your swing", or something along those lines. I don't see how three rounds of swinging for the fences (essentially a televised round of BP) can pull the plug on the rest of your season, right? Let's find out. Here's what the past nine HR Derby champions have done before and after the Derby.
SAMMY SOSA-2000
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 86 103 23 74 97 .305 .574
post-HR Derby 70 90 27 64 71 .338 .711
LUIS GONZALEZ-2001
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 87 103 26 66 43 .342 .674
Post-HR Derby 75 95 31 76 40 .308 .701
JASON GIAMBI-2002
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 86 100 22 71 63 .318 .602
Post-HR Derby 69 76 19 51 49 .309 .593
GARRET ANDERSON-2003
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 92 117 22 78 48 .316 .597
Post-HR Derby 67 84 7 38 35 .313 0.463
MIGUEL TEJADA-2004
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 85 107 15 75 28 .311 .506
Post-HR Derby 77 96 19 75 45 .311 .566
BOBBY ABREU-2005
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 89 99 18 58 65 .307 .526
Post-HR Derby 73 69 6 44 69 .260 .411
RYAN HOWARD-2006
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 84 88 28 71 97 .278 .582
Post-HR Derby 75 94 30 78 84 .355 .751
VLADIMIR GUERRERO-2007
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 85 101 14 75 32 .325 .548
Post-HR Derby 65 85 13 50 30 .323 .546
JUSTIN MORNEAU-2008
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 95 118 14 68 55 .323 .512
Post-HR Derby 68 69 9 61 30 .267 .481
Only three times did a batter's statistics change noticeably following their victory at the Derby (±3 HR ±.20 BA, in the same direction). One of these times (Sammy Sosa), both numbers increased. Furthermore, I wouldn’t give much thought to Morneau’s drop in numbers, since, throughout his 7-year career, his 1st half hitting numbers are far better than his second half numbers—his 1st half HR total nearly doubles his 2nd half’s, and his BA is 32 points higher before the All-Star break compared to after it. That leaves Abreu as the sole culprit; the only proof that superstitious players have that participation in the HR Derby creates glitches in your swing, and ruins the rest of the season. However, by citing Sosa’s improvement after his Derby victory, Abreu’s drop in offense is basically null and void. One player’s numbers shot up, while another’s plummeted—not a very convincing case. So what is it that has influenced notorious HR hitters like Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez to decline a chance to participate in the HR Derby? Probably arrogance. They don’t want to get shown up by someone whom they consider a lesser hitter. This will sound totally off the mark in Manny’s case, but those sluggers who refuse to put on a show on the eve of the All-Star Game must be taking the game way too seriously. In 1999, when Sosa was asked about his poor showing after the Derby’s first round, he told sideline reporter Stuart Scott that he didn’t care, it doesn’t matter since he was just out there to have a good time. Who could forget Big Papi’s role as towel boy, wiping the sweat away from, and bringing Gatorade to whomever is at bat? That’s what it’s all about. It’s not about winning and defining your legacy. Who’s going to remember if Manny got eliminated after round one of the HR Derby, then went 0-2 in the midsummer classic? Probably no one. So, if you look at the data, there’s virtually no reason anyone should refuse a chance to win the HR Derby.
http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=3183612
SAMMY SOSA-2000
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 86 103 23 74 97 .305 .574
post-HR Derby 70 90 27 64 71 .338 .711
LUIS GONZALEZ-2001
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 87 103 26 66 43 .342 .674
Post-HR Derby 75 95 31 76 40 .308 .701
JASON GIAMBI-2002
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 86 100 22 71 63 .318 .602
Post-HR Derby 69 76 19 51 49 .309 .593
GARRET ANDERSON-2003
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 92 117 22 78 48 .316 .597
Post-HR Derby 67 84 7 38 35 .313 0.463
MIGUEL TEJADA-2004
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 85 107 15 75 28 .311 .506
Post-HR Derby 77 96 19 75 45 .311 .566
BOBBY ABREU-2005
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 89 99 18 58 65 .307 .526
Post-HR Derby 73 69 6 44 69 .260 .411
RYAN HOWARD-2006
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 84 88 28 71 97 .278 .582
Post-HR Derby 75 94 30 78 84 .355 .751
VLADIMIR GUERRERO-2007
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 85 101 14 75 32 .325 .548
Post-HR Derby 65 85 13 50 30 .323 .546
JUSTIN MORNEAU-2008
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 95 118 14 68 55 .323 .512
Post-HR Derby 68 69 9 61 30 .267 .481
Only three times did a batter's statistics change noticeably following their victory at the Derby (±3 HR ±.20 BA, in the same direction). One of these times (Sammy Sosa), both numbers increased. Furthermore, I wouldn’t give much thought to Morneau’s drop in numbers, since, throughout his 7-year career, his 1st half hitting numbers are far better than his second half numbers—his 1st half HR total nearly doubles his 2nd half’s, and his BA is 32 points higher before the All-Star break compared to after it. That leaves Abreu as the sole culprit; the only proof that superstitious players have that participation in the HR Derby creates glitches in your swing, and ruins the rest of the season. However, by citing Sosa’s improvement after his Derby victory, Abreu’s drop in offense is basically null and void. One player’s numbers shot up, while another’s plummeted—not a very convincing case. So what is it that has influenced notorious HR hitters like Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez to decline a chance to participate in the HR Derby? Probably arrogance. They don’t want to get shown up by someone whom they consider a lesser hitter. This will sound totally off the mark in Manny’s case, but those sluggers who refuse to put on a show on the eve of the All-Star Game must be taking the game way too seriously. In 1999, when Sosa was asked about his poor showing after the Derby’s first round, he told sideline reporter Stuart Scott that he didn’t care, it doesn’t matter since he was just out there to have a good time. Who could forget Big Papi’s role as towel boy, wiping the sweat away from, and bringing Gatorade to whomever is at bat? That’s what it’s all about. It’s not about winning and defining your legacy. Who’s going to remember if Manny got eliminated after round one of the HR Derby, then went 0-2 in the midsummer classic? Probably no one. So, if you look at the data, there’s virtually no reason anyone should refuse a chance to win the HR Derby.
http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=3183612
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