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Saturday, December 26, 2009

Red Sox Offseason

SIGN
Mike Cameron -37 years old
-Never hit better than .275
-7 for 10 stealing in 2009 (fewest steals in 13 year career)
-Hit 20+ HR last 4 years
-Played 140+ games 10 of past 12 years, low injury risk
-2 Golden Gloves, 1 All-Star
-Against Yankees: .236 BA

Jeremy Hermida-26 years old
- Strong rookie season (.296 BA, .870 OPS)
-Benched in September for rookie Cameron Maybin
-.189 batting against lefties (.282 against righties) in ‘09
-1st round pick of 2002 draft
- 0 Gold Gloves, 0 All-Stars
-Against Yankees: 4-18, 5 SO

Marco Scutaro-34 years old
-Career year last year (.282 BA, .378 OBP, 1.2 BB: SO ratio)
-No power (50 HR in 840 game career, career .384 SLG)
-Solid fielder, can play virtually any position on the field
-6 year veteran (all in AL)
-0 Gold Gloves, 0 All-Star
-Against Yankees: .242 BA

LOSE
Jason Bay-32 years old
-100 RBI, 30HR 4 of 6 years in MLB
-Rookie of the Year in 2004
-3rd in HR, 2nd in RBI, Silver Slugger in 2009
-Accounted for 25% of runs scored by Red Sox in 2009
-Played 145+ in 5 of 6 years in MLB (162 in ’05)
-0 Gold Gloves, 3 All-Stars
- Against Yankees: .324 BA, .559 SLG

You do the math. Alex Gonzalez is gone, but Scutaro is a competent replacement. Let's face it, Gonzo may have been the fan favorite and we all wanted to see him stay, but Scutaro is just as good, and younger. We signed him for two years, with an option for the third year. Don't forget about Lowry either. If he stays healthy, he's a good person to have waiting in the wings. But then there's Jason Bay. Bay probably didn't add so much defense for the Red Sox in '09, but there's no way the outfield we have ligned up now (Ellsbury, Drew, Cameron/Hermida) will be able to replace what Bay meant for this offense--especially if Ortiz has another down year. Bay averages 33 HR and 107 RBI a year. Last year, no one else on the Sox had either 33 HR or 100 RBI.

The addition of John Lackey makes the Sox rotation more dangerous than any other in Major League baseball. We have three shut-down starters, there's no doubt about that. But our lineup really has virtually no power threats, and one or two solid bats: Youkilis, Pedroia, and maybe Papi. The Yankees have A-Rod, Jeter, Texeira, as well as Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano, as well as two Cy-Young candidates in Sabathia and Burnett. For the Sox lineup, Ellsbury will continue to pose a threat on the basepaths, but his .350 OBP won't cut it as a leadoff hitter. Lowell is question mark: he could have a great offensive year, but I doubt his ability to touch his toes anymore. He's the oldest 35 year-old I've ever seen, and is one-year removed from a major hip surgery. The fact that Boston brass tried to get rid of once this offseason (trade to Rangers was called off after his physical) tells you the Red Sox doubt his potential to for another .290 season., a BA only four Red Sox topped last season. Pedroia, Youkilis, and Martinez will have solid years, but don't be surprised if their numbers dip a little with the loss of Bay's protection in the lineup. Like it or not, J.D. will continue to be J.D. He'll bat around .265 with tons of walks and tons of strikeouts, but don't expect anything more.

The Yankees didn't make any big splashes this offseason, but they didn't need to. They won the World Series last year and have virtually the same roster. Yeah, they'll probably end up losing Damon, but he's past his prime anyway. Plus the Steinbrenners will probably end up signing Mark DeRosa or some other bat that can at least replace Damon. They made a couple minor moves, like sending Melky Cabrera to the Braves for pitcher Javier Vasquez, which will probably put Joba back in the 'pen with some scrub named Mariano Rivera.

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