So You Wanna Play in the NBA?

Method 1, (“Prep to Pro”): Get drafted out of high school à-la Lebron James. In 2005, the NBA Players’ Union outlawed Method 1. Now, a player must be 19 years or older, and at least one year removed from high school in order to enter the NBA Draft. So until another change is made, this method is out. But was this a good call by the union? Think about this for a second: the past two times the first pick in the NBA Draft has been a player coming straight out of high school was LeBron James in 2003 and Dwight Howard in 2004. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I’d say they’re doing alright for themselves in the NBA.

Method 2, (“One and Done”): Declare for Draft after freshman year at college, “attend” being a relative term, as the whole “student-athlete” thing is nothing more than a travesty. I’m pretty sure Derrick Rose to a maximum of two classes during his one year at Memphis, and rumor has it Kentucky head coach John Calipari wore a mask into a testing center to take the SATs for his pride and joy, John Wall. Secondly, what’s the point of recruiting the heck out of guys like Kevin Love and OJ Mayo just so they can come to school for a year for little more than parties and basketball? Not only is it a waste of time and money on behalf of Athletic Departments, it’s also doing a disservice to these nineteen and twenty year olds who are, for the first time, away from their families. All the special treatment they receive and all the babying they get doesn’t do anything to prepare them for the NBA.

Method 3, (“Trans-Atlantic Antics”): Spend the required one year removed from high school playing basketball for a European professional team such as Panathinaikos Athens. I think these guys wanted to get a jump start on their 401K. Why go to college and play for free when you can be making serious euros playing basketball matches in Barcelona? In all serious, these international teams are getting pretty good. U.S. Basketball really got a wake-up call at the 2004 Olympics in Athens when they got beat out by both Argentina and Italy. Where do you think Milwaukee Bucks’ rookie Brandon Jennings was when he showed up late to the NBA Draft?

FINAL WORD: Play European ball. To play basketball at a big name school like USC or Ohio State is to live in a bubble where everything is handed to you, where you can breeze through your classes that you don’t even show up for, and where your coaches and Athletic Directors will cover up all your tracks. Come on, you’re not fooling anyone. While it’s not impossible to keep a strong work ethic throughout college, most freshmen getting tons of attention from the ladies, the agents, and boosters will inevitably get distracted and lose the drive that they had relied on to get to this point in their careers. I’d even say play oversees over the prep-to-pro move, had it stayed legal. Experiencing other cultures and ways of life has a lot to offer. And, sometimes, the lead from high school senior to professional baller is too much. Kwame Brown was drafted first overall in 2001 by the Washington Wizards, and has by no means lived up to the hype.

With a disappointing end to the season in 2009, the Patriots have to make some moves if they want to compete for a championship in 2010. So far, they’re heading in the wrong direction, and that direction is sideways. They’ve re-signed nose tackle Vince Wilfork and linebacker Tully Banta-Cain—both necessary moves, but where is the upgrade? And, if we’re just going to look at who they are re-signing, think about this: many ’09 Pats are still on the market as unrestricted free agents, notably RB Kevin Faulk, CB Leigh Bodden, G Steven Neal, and TE Benjamin Watson. So not only have the Patriots not made any improvements, they’re losing—or at least missing, for now—some really key players. Here’s what concerns me the most about the Patriots’ upcoming season:

1. Bill Belichick cannot coach this team by himself. As of today, the Patriots have the best head coach in the NFL, yet no offensive coordinator or defensive coordinator. I don’t know if this is some kind of ego thing for Belichick, as if he doesn’t need help/doesn’t want anyone second guessing his decisions, but I hope that’s not the case. Having people question your decisions makes you a better decision-maker overall. If the president didn’t have his Cabinet, where would we be? If Bill wants to take the defense, fine. He’s always been a defense-oriented coach, but by no means can he be the offensive playcaller. He’s already missed out on what I considered a golden opportunity to bring in Charlie Weis (he ended up with the Chiefs), who was offensive coordinator under Belichick for all three Patriot Super Bowls, and now Bill’s options are pretty limited. I honestly don’t know what makes a good offensive coordinator, or who would be a good fit in New England, but Belichick needs to start making some calls (on the phone).

2. The health of Wes Welker, who will be returning from a torn ACL and MCL. I don’t question his dedication or work ethic, so if there’s anyone who will rehab his ass off, it’s Wes. We saw Brady come back from his knee injury and produce, and I hope the same will hold true for Welker. His injury, especially the ACL, is a tricky one, and no one’s sure when he’ll be ready to play again. Everyone knows how important he is to the Patriots, and we’ll need him back next season.

3. The offensive line is nothing to brag about. Although Brady wasn’t sacked tons of times this season, you can’t say he had tons of time in the pocket either. Here’s a stat for you: in 2008, with Matt Cassel under center, the Patriots O-line allowed 8.1% of all Cassel’s dropbacks to go as sacks. This year, with the Chiefs, Cassel was sacked on 7.9% of all his dropbacks. What does this mean? Cassel got sacked less with the Chiefs than he did with the Patriots. I’m not sure about you, but something tells me that having an offensive line better than the Chiefs would be a good idea. Personally, I think this is an issue of age. The average age of Patriots’ starting offensive line this year was 31. The average age of the starting O-line in the past four Super Bowl teams—the Saints, Colts, Steelers, and Cardinals—were 28, 29, 26, and 26, respectively. Even on the Pats’ Super Bowl teams of ‘01, ’03, and ’04, the O-line was 25, 26, and 27 years old, respectively. And not only does this result in limited time in the pocket for Brady, an aging and poor offensive line also affects the run game, and must have had something to do with the Patriots weak rush attack. In 2009, they were 23^rd in the NFL in yards per rush attempt. People can blame Lawrence Moroney all they want, but he’s a good back when he finds a hole. Most mock drafts have six tackles going in the first round this year, and I’d love to see one of them go to the Pats.

4. Defense needs an upgrade. Like I said earlier, Vince Wilfork was a nice signing, but how is he any improvement over last year’s mediocre defense? Losing him would have been a negative, but simply bringing him back isn’t really a plus. We missed out on signing Julius Peppers, which would have been huge for this team, since he is perhaps the most talented D-lineman in all of football. But just as important as bringing in someone supremely talented like Peppers is finding some veteran leadership. The lack of leadership on defense was a big point of contention last season. Belichick even went so far as to convince Junior Seau, again, to come out of retirement for the sole purpose of giving the young and inexperienced defense someone to look up to. That’s why we should sign free agent safety Darren Sharper. It’s a long shot, because he’ll probably end up re-signing with the Saints, but it would be a hell of a signing. He’s a smart player who can be the spark for the Patriots lackluster defense. He would certainly bring more to the table than Seau, who started a total of zero games this season, and accumulated a total of zero sacks. What I don’t want to see is the Patriots draft a defensive player early in the draft, thinking he will be a good addition to the team in 2010. We have enough youth with plenty of room to mature on the defensive side of the ball. Jarod Mayo, Brandon Meriweather, Ron Brace, Darius Butler, and Pat Chung all have legitimate potential on this team. They just need to mature, and preferably in the presence of a Bruschi-like or Seau-like player who can actually still play.

5. Our receiving corps is a big question mark. The value of Randy Moss is always debatable, and with Wes Welker dealing with rehab all off-season, who knows what we’ll get in 2010? All season, I was disturbed by how heavily Brady relied on Welker, and I feel like there is a serious lack of receiving threats. I think Sam Aiken will have a big year, and I still believe Julian Edelman will be a great NFL player, and I’m excited to see what Brandon Tate will do this year. But still, another weapon would be nice. Anquan Boldin (I know that’s thinking pretty big), who just signed with the Bears, would have been ideal, but now that he’s off the table, I would look either to the draft or to Brandon Marshall, who is currently being tendered by the Broncos for a first round pick. If the Pats are willing to both relinquish a first round draft pick and to put up with Marshall’s antics, he would be a great addition.

There are several things that the Patriots should be looking to do this offseason, both in free agency and in the draft. As far as the draft is concerned, the Pats have a plethora of picks in the first few rounds and should look first and foremost to upgrade their O-line. Second, a wide receiver. Personally, I love Mardy Gilyard out of Cincinatti. But other options include Arrelious Benn out of Illinois or Jordon Shipley from Texas. Third of all, I’ve been hearing talks of the Patriots possibly drafting Tim Tebow, and I think it’s a great idea. A good pickup in the second or third round, the Patriots could use Tebow in a variety of ways. If they like his quarterbacking skills, Brady could be his mentor, and Tebow would really be learning from the best. Or, they could use his power and athleticism at full back or tight end, or even as a wildcat QB. Everyone knows about his intangibles, and I just think that any team should be able to find a place on their team for a player like Tim Tebow.

Tentative Super Bowl Prediction

Saints: 28
Colts: 24

A Look into Super Bowl XLIV

Saints have an advantage over the Colts in that they…

1. Have a balanced offensive game. At every position, the Saints have a legitimate threat. Marquis Colston, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, and Jeremy Shockey are all capable of a big play as long as Drew Brees has the ball.

2. Are great against the long ball. Indy lives and dies by the ability to score through the air. They were third in passing touchdowns this season, while averaging less than one rushing touchdown per game. The Saints allowed less than one pass TD per game this season, and were 2^nd in the NFC. If the Colts can’t throw to the end zone, they’re in trouble.

3. Have a strong backfield. Two safeties on the Saints were elected to the Pro Bowl, and the team was third in the NFL in interceptions this season. Opposing quarterbacks average a 58.2% completion percentage against the Saints, which is 2^nd in the NFC. In games where Payton Manning has completed 58.2% or less of his passes, his record is 17-23.

4. Get to the quarterback. They may not register tons of sacks, but they punish quarterbacks. The Saints D-Line was on a mission last week to put Brett Favre on his back, and they did just that. They’ll do the same to Peyton Manning.

5. Have the ability to stop the Colts in the Red Zone. While both teams are in the top five in Red Zone scoring percentage, the Saints were third in the NFL with a 42.2% opponent Red Zone scoring percentage, while the Colts were not even in the top ten, behind the Raiders and Browns.

6. Can force turnovers. Only two teams this season turned the ball over less than the Vikings, and the Saints still forced five turnovers. As astonishing as that might seem, Gregg Williams has made a point to strip the ball and force interceptions: the Saints rank first in takeaways per game this season (3^rd in interceptions, 1^st in opponent fumbles lost). In 17 playoff games, Manning has thrown 18 interceptions, and the Saints certainly have the ability to take advantage of that.

Colts have an advantage over the Saints in that they…

1. Have the smartest quarterback to ever play the game. Peyton Manning is, in all sense of the word, a genius. With two weeks to prepare against a Saints defense that thrives on the ability to give opposing offenses different looks, who knows what Manning will have up his sleeve?

2. Are more experienced. In every roster category, they have at least one Super Bowl champion—quarterback: P. Manning; running back; J. Addai, o-line: J. Saturday; wide receiver: R. Wayne; tight end: Dallas Clark; d-line: D. Freeney; linebacker: G. Brackett; backfield: A. Bethea; special teams: Adam Vinatieri

3. Rarely turn the ball over. This year, the Colts were seventh in the NFL, averaging 1.4 givaways per game. The Saints rely heavily on getting key fumbles and interceptions, as evidenced by their win over the Vikings last week, where their five forced turnovers decidedly decided the game, and the Colts are certainly above-average when it comes to not turning the ball over.

4. They have a very strong D-line in Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. I don’t know how effective they’ll be if Freeney’s ankle is bothering him on Sunday (and Brees has one of the cleanest jerseys in the NFL), but they’ll definitely have an impact on the game plan of Sean Peyton and the Saints.

5. Are not playing in the Superdome. I think the NFC championship difference maker was the home field advantage for New Orleans. Outside in Miami, Manning will be able to communicate a whole lot better than if they were in the Superdome.

6. PEYTON MANNING. Enough said.

One Last Playoff Look

If my underdogs are going to win this weekend, here's how it will go down.

In order for the Jets to win...
1. Mark Sanchez will have to be on fire in the red zone. He'll have to throw for at least two TDs.
2. The whole NY secondary, not just Darrelle Revis will have to hold Peyton Manning to a completion percentage under 65%.

In order for the Vikings to win...
1. They will have to win the turnover battle.
2. Adrian Peterson will have to average 4+ yards per carry.