Tentative Super Bowl Prediction

Saints: 28
Colts: 24

A Look into Super Bowl XLIV

Saints have an advantage over the Colts in that they…

1. Have a balanced offensive game. At every position, the Saints have a legitimate threat. Marquis Colston, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, and Jeremy Shockey are all capable of a big play as long as Drew Brees has the ball.

2. Are great against the long ball. Indy lives and dies by the ability to score through the air. They were third in passing touchdowns this season, while averaging less than one rushing touchdown per game. The Saints allowed less than one pass TD per game this season, and were 2^nd in the NFC. If the Colts can’t throw to the end zone, they’re in trouble.

3. Have a strong backfield. Two safeties on the Saints were elected to the Pro Bowl, and the team was third in the NFL in interceptions this season. Opposing quarterbacks average a 58.2% completion percentage against the Saints, which is 2^nd in the NFC. In games where Payton Manning has completed 58.2% or less of his passes, his record is 17-23.

4. Get to the quarterback. They may not register tons of sacks, but they punish quarterbacks. The Saints D-Line was on a mission last week to put Brett Favre on his back, and they did just that. They’ll do the same to Peyton Manning.

5. Have the ability to stop the Colts in the Red Zone. While both teams are in the top five in Red Zone scoring percentage, the Saints were third in the NFL with a 42.2% opponent Red Zone scoring percentage, while the Colts were not even in the top ten, behind the Raiders and Browns.

6. Can force turnovers. Only two teams this season turned the ball over less than the Vikings, and the Saints still forced five turnovers. As astonishing as that might seem, Gregg Williams has made a point to strip the ball and force interceptions: the Saints rank first in takeaways per game this season (3^rd in interceptions, 1^st in opponent fumbles lost). In 17 playoff games, Manning has thrown 18 interceptions, and the Saints certainly have the ability to take advantage of that.

Colts have an advantage over the Saints in that they…

1. Have the smartest quarterback to ever play the game. Peyton Manning is, in all sense of the word, a genius. With two weeks to prepare against a Saints defense that thrives on the ability to give opposing offenses different looks, who knows what Manning will have up his sleeve?

2. Are more experienced. In every roster category, they have at least one Super Bowl champion—quarterback: P. Manning; running back; J. Addai, o-line: J. Saturday; wide receiver: R. Wayne; tight end: Dallas Clark; d-line: D. Freeney; linebacker: G. Brackett; backfield: A. Bethea; special teams: Adam Vinatieri

3. Rarely turn the ball over. This year, the Colts were seventh in the NFL, averaging 1.4 givaways per game. The Saints rely heavily on getting key fumbles and interceptions, as evidenced by their win over the Vikings last week, where their five forced turnovers decidedly decided the game, and the Colts are certainly above-average when it comes to not turning the ball over.

4. They have a very strong D-line in Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. I don’t know how effective they’ll be if Freeney’s ankle is bothering him on Sunday (and Brees has one of the cleanest jerseys in the NFL), but they’ll definitely have an impact on the game plan of Sean Peyton and the Saints.

5. Are not playing in the Superdome. I think the NFC championship difference maker was the home field advantage for New Orleans. Outside in Miami, Manning will be able to communicate a whole lot better than if they were in the Superdome.

6. PEYTON MANNING. Enough said.

One Last Playoff Look

If my underdogs are going to win this weekend, here's how it will go down.

In order for the Jets to win...
1. Mark Sanchez will have to be on fire in the red zone. He'll have to throw for at least two TDs.
2. The whole NY secondary, not just Darrelle Revis will have to hold Peyton Manning to a completion percentage under 65%.

In order for the Vikings to win...
1. They will have to win the turnover battle.
2. Adrian Peterson will have to average 4+ yards per carry.

SOTD: Teams Left in NFL

Of the four remaining teams in the playoffs...

1. Three teams play home games in a dome
2. Two teams have rookie head coaches
3. Three quarterbacks had regular season passer ratings of over 100 and completion percentages higher than 68%
4. Two quarterbacks were top 5 draft picks; two were 2nd round picks
5. Four quarterbacks were born in Southern states (Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, SoCal)

Conference Championships Predictions

This one’s a no brainer for me. Here’s five reasons the Saints will beat the Vikings.

1.Drew Brees against a Minnesota pass defense ranked 24th in opponent passer rating. Come on, you do the math. Another reason I have reason to reason Brees will have a big game: Drew Brees averages 310 pass yards per game in eight home games this season. In their past four away games (GB, ARI, CAR, CHI), the Vikings have allowed an average of 286 pass yards. Brees will tear it up against a sub-par Vikings secondary.

2.The key to the Vikings’ win against the Cowboys was the pressure they got on Tony Romo (6 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 1 interception). In home games the past two years, Drew Brees has been sacked multiple times only three times, and has thrown multiple picks only twice. Against Dallas today, Romo was sacked for 42 yards—this season, the Saints are sacked for an average of less than 8.5 yards per game.

3.Adrian Peterson hasn’t rushed for 100 yards since November 15. In fact, since then, he’s averaged only 66 yards per game. Minnesota can’t expect Brett Favre to win this game single-handedly.

4.In their first postseason game, the Saints rushed for 170 yards and passed for 247 with an almost 50:50 run:pass play ratio. That’s what the Saints were doing for the first 13 games of the season when they were unstoppable. I think that their Week 15 loss to the Cowboys (the only one I really care about—the rest were meaningless) can be attributed entirely to the fact that the Saints rushed the ball only 7 times, while passing it 29 times. Look for another balanced attack that will keep the Vikings D on its heels.

5.I don’t think any team could have used a first-round bye week more than the Saints. In the first 11 games of the season, the Saints outscored their opponents 407-221. In the last five games of the season—coming at the end of a stretch of 12 straight games, they were outscored 103-120. Now, after an off week, the Saints have reestablished their dominance, scoring three times as many points as the Cardinals in their first playoff game. When the Saints are rested and Sean Payton and Gregg Williams—who make the best coaching tandem in the NFL—have time to prepare their players, the Saints cannot be beat.



I’ve severely underestimated the Jets. Rex Ryan is really becoming one of the best coaches in the NFL. After he beat the Colts, I felt the Jets were getting lots of unwarranted hype. But since then, they’ve won three games against teams that I honestly thought would run all over them. I really liked the Bengals, and everyone liked the Chargers, but the Jets played them tough, and here they are in the conference championship. I still think the Colts will win, but I’ve become a believer in the Jets.

1.Mark Sanchez sucks, and the Jets have no confidence in him. No team has made fewer pass attempts this season than the Jets, and his past six games, he’s averaged 20 pass attempts per game. The Colts defense may not be the best in the league, but if the Jets do nothing but run the ball, the Colts will be ready.

2.The Jets have a rookie running back, a rookie quarterback, and a rookie head coach. Yes, all three have surpassed our expectations so far, but none have played in this type of capital “b” Big game. And Peyton Manning has. He’s won a Super Bowl, he’s been Super Bowl MVP, and he has almost twice as many pass yards in his 16 playoff games than Mark Sanchez does in his entire career. No one manages the game better than Peyton Manning, and he will lead the Colts to a victory.

3.The Jets have been so successful because Darrelle Revis has been able to shut down big name receivers like Chad Ochocinco and Vincent Jackson—the marquis receiver of their respective teams. Who is the marquis receiver for the Colts? Reggie Wayne? Maybe. But Dallas Clark has just as many receptions and just as many TDs. So who do the Jets think Revis will cover next week? He can cover anyone he wants, and he’ll probably shut that single down. But the fact remains that no quarterback is better at spreading the ball around than Peyton Manning. He throws to whomever is open, and he’ll complete it 99% of the time—well, really 69%, but you know what I mean. Austin Collie, Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon are all targets of Manning, and he does not discriminate. Revis will without a doubt take one receiver out of the game for one play at a time. But after that, Manning still has options.

4.Here’s what the Jets have going for them: they’re on a roll, having won four in a row—all against playoff teams—by a combined 64 points; they beat the Colts by two touchdowns less than a month ago (notice I’m leaving out the part about Peyton being benched after 1 half); the Colts defense is nothing special, especially against the rush: they allow 124 rush yards per game, 22nd in the NFL; the Jets defense is far and away the best in the NFL—1st in opponent completion percentage, pass yards, pass TDs, passer rating, and passing first downs; they just beat the hottest team in the NFL, the Chargers, in San Diego; the Colts have a rookie head coach, and Peyton Manning has only won one playoff game without Tony Dungy at the helm (it came last weekend). Those are considerable advantages, and I’m totally throwing out the Jets. They definitely have a chance to win…I just don’t think they will.

5.My fifth thing to think about, coming into this game is Peyton Manning. He’s having arguably the best year of his career this year, and has only been sacked 10 times—hence, he’s ready to play. You think he’s ready to lose to the Jets for the second time this season? I didn’t think so.

Round Two Picks, Confidence 4

This game is really a tossup for me. I don’t know which Viking team we’re going to see. Will it be the Vikings that beat the Giants by 37 points in the last game of the regular season; or the Vikings who, just six days prior, gave up 36 points and lost to the Chicago Bears? Minnesota is a great team: their offense is loaded with weapons from Percy Harvin to Sidney Rice to Adrian Peterson to Brett Favre; in fact, Minnesota scored more points than any team in the NFL except the Saints. However, the Dallas defense is H-O-T hot. In their last three games, they’ve allowed a total of 14 points, 45 rush yards per game, 3.7 sacks per game, and 3 third down conversions per game (which is below their NFL-leading season average of 4.2 per game). The one thing Minnesota has going for them is Brett Favre. It didn’t work for him down the stretch in 2008: last season, after starting 8-3 with the Jets, he lost four of his last five games and NY did not qualify for the playoffs. This season, he’s made more pass attempts than he did last season, and I’m not sure how his arm will hold up this weekend. But in 2009, Favre achieved a passer rating, interception total, pass yard total, and touchdown total in the top three of his career. At home, his numbers are off the charts: his passer rating of 118.1 is incredible. And if the Cowboy defense has one hole, it’s the passing game. They’re below the league average in opponent passer rating and opponent passing yards per game. So if Brett Favre can bring his A game, the Vikings will have a serious chance at a win. In Dallas’s five losses this season, the opposing quarterback averages 255 yards through the air; while in those same five games, only one team ran for a hundred yards, and the leading rusher on the opposing team averaged 53.4 YPG. If the Cowboys can hold Adrian Peterson to 53.4 yards, there’s no way Brett Favre can pull together a game good enough for the Vikings to win.

On the other side, the Dallas offense is balanced: Tony Romo behind center is having a career year, all three backs—Marion Barber, Tashard Choice, and Felix Jones—have the potential to break out a twenty yard run at any point during the game, and with a receiving corps of Miles Austin, Jason Witten, and Roy Williams, the Minnesota D will have their hands full. The Vikings have accumulated the second-best point differential in the NFL, and they should put up a fight against Dallas. What the game will come down to is the advantage that each team has over the other: The Vikings home field advantage: Favre has been lights out at Mall of America Field, and has not lost a game there all season. The Cowboys have better chemistry and they have momentum: the Vikings haven’t had chemistry since training camp, when Favre admitted that he did not have the support of the locker room; plus, don’t forget Chad Childress and Brett Favre’s recent power struggles. The ‘Boys have won their last four games, outscoring their opponents 96-28; their defense (especially DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer) looks unstoppable; and Tony Romo is finally playing great.

In the end, the game will hinge of Brett Favre. If he throws for 300 yards, they’ll have a chance of winning. If not, the Cowboys will move on.

Round Two Picks, Confidence 5

I like the Ravens, I really do. They played the Colts very close in Week 11, losing 17-15; they match up well against Indy. Manning’s home passer rating is worse than his away rating, Indy has a rookie head coach, an inexperienced receiving corps, and they essentially threw their final two games. On the Ravens side, they showed what they're capable of last Saturday in Foxboro, forcing four Brady turnovers, scoring 24 points in the first quarter, holding the Patriots to under 200 total yards and 14 points, and accumulating only 15 penalty yards. Ray Rice and Willis McGahee have become a two-pronged attack that no defense wants to see. You might say that Joe Flacco has encountered somewhat of a sophomore slump, throwing for fewer than 200 yards eight times this season (including a whopping 34 in last week’s game against the Patriots). But really, why throw and risk turnovers (Colts average a pick a game) when you have some of the best running backs in the NFL? I wouldn’t call it a sophomore slump, I’d call it being judicious. In their past two games, Rice and McGahee have rushed for a combined 458 yards. The Ravens have one of the best rushing attack in the NFL, and they’ll be going up against a Colts defense that allows just as many rush yards as the Detroit Lions. In fact, New England was ranked 13th in run defense this season, allowing 110 yards on the ground per game: Baltimore’s 221 rush yards doubled what the Pats D averaged this season. They’ll live and die by their rushing attack this weekend in Indy, as Flacco won’t be throwing the ball all that much against the Colts, whose D surrenders just a little more than 200 pass yards per game. In the end, though, I just can’t pick against Peyton Manning in the playoffs at home. Manning has had a career year this year, throwing for 4,500 yards for just the second time in his career, and completing a higher percentage of his passes than ever before. The only reservation I have is how sitting for three straight weeks will affect him, but I’ve got to believe he’ll come out strong.

Other Happenings in Sports

There’s no doubting that Pete Carroll built one of the greatest college football teams ever. From 1996-2001, the Trojans were 37-35. Pete Carroll took over in 2001, and since then USC has a record of 86-18. But there’s no way Carroll will experience success anywhere near that in Seattle. College football dominance is based on recruiting. Hence, Pete Carroll could recruit better than anyone. Unfortunately for him, coaches in the NFL don’t recruit. I think Seahawks owner Paul Allen recognized the pro-style offense Carroll ran in SoCal, and plans on him being able to run a similar offense in Seattle. He’ll do that, for sure. But Pete Carroll just won’t have the talent he did when he was at USC. If you gave me the choice between Matt Barkley or Matt Hasselbeck, I’d take Matt Barkley. Until the Seahawks bring in better players, they can look forward to some more 5- or 6-win seasons over the next couple of years. What’s more significant in this story is that Carroll’s replacement will be former Oakland Raiders and Tennessee Volunteers football coach Lane Kiffin. When news of Carroll’s departure first surfaced, everyone wondered how USC could ever survive. Here’s how. Tennessee head coach Lane Kiffin was the offensive coordinator at USC from 2001-2006, and will now be the top dog in Southern Cal. Also making the switch from Tennesse to USC are Carroll’s father and defensive guru Monte Kiffin, as well as the recruiting director there, Ed Orgeron. I really don’t think USC is left with a net loss at the end of all this (as long as they’re not slapped with any NCAA violations.) The fact that Lane Kiffin coached in the NFL and in the SEC will probably be a significant draw for future recruits; the fact that Lane Kiffin loves the spotlight will probably mean he’ll enjoy Southern California; and the fact that USC started only eight seniors last year means that Kiffin will have a lot of talent to work with. In five years, USC will have won one national championship, and the Seahawks will have had one winning season.

Just real quick, Mark McGuire came clean about steroids. I don’t care. I don’t care when you took them, why you took them, or what effects you claim they had on you. You used steroids and gave yourself an unfair advantage that skewed your natural ability—how much of McGuire’s success was natural, and how much does he owe to PEDs? “Grading” a user’s press conference is bull shit. Giambi used, A-Rod used, Pettite used, and Manny used. All these players had different excuses and, in many cases, they’re all perceived by fans in different ways based on how they admitted to steroid use. And that is preposterous. Anyone who has ever taken steroids should be treated the same.

Round Two Picks, Confidence 8

Chargers over Jets
You’ve got to be kidding me on this one. I still can’t believe the Jets are in the playoffs. The Colts and Cincinnati better be getting thank you cards in the mail this week, because there’s no way the Jets would have made the playoffs if those two teams had played with any fire in the last two weeks of the season. Excluding their last two games, the Jets played three games against playoff teams and averaged 13 points for those three games. The Jets survive solely with their defense, and I don’t think it will hold up against the Chargers in San Diego. San Diego hasn’t scored fewer than 20 points once this season; and as good as the Jets defense is, it’s not that good. Phillip Rivers will still get between 250-300 passing yards (his season average is 265), and will lead to Chargers to at least 27 points. LaDainian Tomlinson seems to always be beat up, and the bye week last week should really do him some good (don’t forget about Darren Sproles, either). Jets’ cornerback Derrelle Revis will probably end up making Chargers top receiver Vincent Jackson a nonfactor, I’ll give you that. But Rivers should still be able to find either his Pro Bowl TE Antonio Gates or 6’5” receiver Malcom Floyd, who had 140 receiving yards in his last game of the season. The Chargers D isn’t anything special, but they should be able to stop the one-minded offense of the Jets, who rely exclusively on their run game. If you look at the Jets’ wins this season, they’ve beat up on poor rush defenses. And at home, the Chargers allow only 100 rush yards per game and .6 rush TDs per game. A third of their wins came against teams that allow over 150 rush yards per game (which only four teams in the NFL did); averaged together, the eight teams that the Jets did beat allowed 131 yards per game. Only six teams actually surrendered that many rush yards. What all that means is that the Jets do well against teams with weak rush defenses. And although the Chargers run defense might not be the best, it’s pretty good—and the Jets only beat one team (other than an unmotivated Cincy in Week 17) with a worse run defense than the Chargers. In his last six games, Jets’ QB Mark Sanchez averages 131 pass yards, and I don’t expect the Jets to score more than 20 points this weekend.

Round Two Picks, Confidence: 9

Yeah, yeah, say what you want about my wildcard round playoff picks. They sucked, I know. I’m batting .250 so far. But hey, that’s 15% higher than Varitek’s batting average last season.

This week, I’m going to post my Round Two Picks one at a time, starting with the ones I’m most comfortable with.

Saints over Cardinals
If the Cardinals couldn’t stop Aaron Rodgers, how can they expect to defend against the Saints, who not only have the best QB in the NFL, but also have a great receiving corps and an above-average rushing game? The Cardinals are going to play the Saints the same way they played the Packers: give the ball to Kurt Warner (I was wrong, he’s still got a full tank, even in Week 18), and he’ll throw downfield to Steve Breaston and Larry Fitzgerald—maybe even Anquan Boldin, who could be back from his sprained MCL. He completed 88% of his passes, and threw for five TDs against the Green Bay secondary for a passer rating of 154.1. You think he’ll duplicate that against the Saints secondary in the Superdome? Quarterbacks against the Saints complete an average of 57% of their passes, and manage a passer rating of 67.2, fifth and third in the NFL respectively. The Saints have allowed fewer passing touchdowns this season than they have had games. Granted, you could have said the same thing about Green Bay’s passing defense prior to last night’s game, but over the course of the season, New Orleans has had a better overall defense. I mean, Roethlisberger threw for 500 yards against the Packers just three weeks ago! What I’m saying is you can’t expect Kurt Warner to throw for 350+ again this weekend. You can expect that out of Drew Brees, however. The Cardinals have allowed a 300 yard passing game five times this season. Matt Hasselbeck threw for 315 yards against the Cardinals, for cryin’ out loud; that’s 100 yards higher than his season average! Arizona is 27th in the NFL for passing yards per game, and 23rd in terms of overall yardage. In the end, the Saints defense is far from impenetrable, but they will hold Arizona to under 24 points. On the other side, the Saints offense—especially Drew Brees—will tear up the Cardinals defense and put up at least 31 points.

My Round 1 Picks

Three Week 17 rematches will be featured in the first round of The Playoffs

Patriots over Ravens
The loss of Welker isn’t as damaging as you might think. Rookie Julian Edelman is all the hype and by no means overrated. The Ravens were able to take Welker out the game in Week 4 anyway: on his first game back from injury, Welker only had six catches against the Ravens –which is his 2nd lowest total for the season—for 48 yards. The Pats went on to win that game 27-21. Tom Brady is 14-3 career in the playoffs and has never lost his first playoff game; the Pats finally have all their backs healthy: Laurence Maroney sat out Week 17 and will be rested, Sammy Morris is back from his injuries that sidelined him for six games in the middle of the season, and Fred Taylor rushed for two TDs last week and has recovered from his ankle injury that kept him out 10 games.

Bengals over Jets
The Jets played out of their minds on Sunday, and there’s no way that will happen again, this time in Cincinnati. The Bengals have had some quality wins this season, including at Green Bay, twice against Pittsburgh, and twice against Baltimore. Their losses came in a last-second lucky touchdown in Week 1 in Denver (they were good then, remember?), at Minnesota, at San Diego, a fluke loss to the up-and-down Oakland Raiders, and a Week 17 blowout that really had no impact on their playoff seeding. The only quality wins I’d give the Jets came in the first two weeks of the season against the Texans and Patriots; you could also throw in Week 15 against the Falcons, but I wouldn’t. The Bengals now know Sanchez won’t throw the ball next week (he threw for only 63 yards in Week 17) and the Cincinnati D can focus on stopping Brad Smith and the above-average run game of the Jets.

Cowboys over Eagles
What December woes? (What overused cliché?) Tony Romo has averaged 310 yards his last six games, throwing only two interceptions to go along with eleven touchdowns. The ‘Boys will be back in Dallas, and I don’t see any reason they won’t steamroll the Eagles in Round #2. The Dallas defense is playing harder than they have all season, and have shutout their last two opponents. The ‘Boys will likely be playing for their coach Wade Phillip’s job, and I think that they will be motivated more than they have been all season. The Cowboys haven’t won a playoff game since 1996. Jerry Jones didn’t spend a bazillion dollars on his new stadium to lose another playoff game. He wants to win. The Cowboy fans want to win. His team wants to win. They will win.

Packers over Cardinals
Aaron Rodgers is coming into his own after living in the shadow of Brett Favre, and is becoming one of the elite passers in the NFL. He still has some game management skills that he can improve upon, but when it comes to purely throwing the football, there’s few I’d rather have than Aaron Rodgers. Speaking of Brett Favre though, I don’t think veteran Kurt Warner, at age 38, really has any more big games in him. He averages less than 250 passing yards in his last five games (excluding Week 17, when he threw but six passes), and the Cardinals don’t really have much of a run game that he can lean on: Tim Hightower hasn’t had more than 15 carries all season. Of the twelve playoff teams, the Cardinals total the second fewest yards per game, and I don’t see their defense stopping the Packers 6th-ranked offense. To tell you the truth, I’m not really impressed with the Cardinals. At all. You know how many wins they had against teams with records better than .500? One. Against the Texans in Week 5…Warner and the Cards were coming off of a buy week. I mean look at their schedule. They beat St. Louis twice, they beat Seattle twice, and they beat the Tigers: that’s half their wins right there. If they lost to the 49ers twice, how do they expect to beat the Packers?

Team to Watch: Houston Texans

With only five players (excluding special teams) age 30 years or older, the Texans have immense potential. Since 2003, they’ve drafted four players to be voted to the All Pro team—Andre Johnson, Jerome Mathis, Mario Williams, and DeMeco Ryans. Add to that this year’s performance of rookie linebacker Brian Cushing out of USC: 128 tackles (first among NFL rookies), 4 sacks (second highest for NFL rookies; first in AFC), 4 interceptions (the only rookie to have more is Buffalo’s Jairus Byrd, a free safety), and 2 forced fumbles (tied for second among NFL rookies), and the Texans have compiled some of the most impressive draft histories in recent memory. In 2009, they started three rookies, and two others have played in every game this season. In 2006, we scoffed at their passing off Reggie Bush for Mario Williams. Well I ask you, who’s laughing now? The Texans have one of the youngest teams in the NFL and have nowhere to go but up.

Quarterback Matt Schaub has shown himself Pro Bowl worthy for the first time this year. He has thrown for more yards than any QB through week 15, is third in completion percentage behind only Drew Brees and Peyton Manning (elite company, I’d say), and is one of only three quarterbacks to throw more than 58 passes of 20+ yards and less than 15 interceptions. He has missed nine games due to injury in the past two years, but he’s only 28 years old (Romo is 29, Brees is 30, Brady is 32, Manning is 33) and has a bright future ahead of him. I predict him to be the best quarterback in the NFL in five years. Brees, Brady, and Manning will be washed-up by then; Roethlisberger (27) will not amount to much in the next few years, as he will continue to fight injuries—he’s only started 16 games once in his career and averages 40 sacks per season; Romo and Eli have yet to prove themselves, and could take a few more years to become top-tier quarterbacks; right now, only Phillip Rivers (28), Jay Cutler (26), and Matt Ryan (24) could possibly challenge Schaub in the coming years as NFL’s top quarterback.

But no one will have better weapons at wide receiver than the Texans in the coming years. Andre Johnson has finally come into his own after being drafted in the first round of the 2003 Draft. He has the most receiving yards of any WR by almost 200 yards and is the second-biggest deep threat after Philly’s Desean Jackson. Houston has nine players who have caught at least 15 passes this season, none of whom have played in the NFL for more than 7 years. The Pats have seven, who together average 8 years experience. You might be thinking that experience is a good thing, and it is. For the short term. Kevin Faulk is a great weapon for the Pats…right now. How great will he be in three years? He’ll probably be out of the NFL. The Texans, on the other hand, have a solid receiving corps to count for the next several years. Matt Schaub and the Houston offense will continue to put up big numbers and will continue to win games.

There’s no question as to where the strength of this Texans team is: it’s the passing game. It’s not the defense and it’s not the run game. As far as defense goes, the Texans aren’t great, but aren’t bad either. They have a reliable defense that gives up a little more than 20 points and 325 yards per game, right in the middle of the pack for the NFL. Super Bowls are no longer won with stellar defenses; it’s becoming more of an offense-driven league every year. So I don’t think much focus should be put on the Houston D. They do, however, need to focus on the run game. In 2009, only the Colts run for fewer yards. This is especially crucial in the red zone. Of all the teams with over 350 points this season, the Texans have the fewest run TDs, which hurts them most in the red zone. What number troubles me is that the Texans are 11th in total points this season, yet they are 5th in total yards. This tells me that their red zone game sucks. Even though they are gaining tons of yards, they can struggle to point enough points on the board. Their 52.7% TD conversion in the red zone is not going to cut it if they have Super Bowl aspirations. Only one 11-win team has a lower red zone conversion percentage, the Eagles. Indy and New Orleans together have a 62% conversion rate, and that is why they were both undefeated entering week 14.

The Texans will be a playoff contender for the next several years, and have Super Bowl potential. But they’re not there yet. If they really want to go somewhere other than a 9-7 season, they’ll need to get a new coach, work on their run game, maintain their electric passing game, and continue to have successful defense-centric (less risky) drafts.

SOTD: Large Market Teams

There are 39 professional sports teams in NY/NJ, LA, BOS, CHI, DET, Pennsylvania, and Texas, across the four major sports of NHL, MLB, NBA, and NFL. There are a total of 122 professional sports teams in those four leagues. Since 1990, there has been a total of 76 championships, and one of those 39 teams have appeared in 60 of them (79%). In addition, they have a combined 78 appearances in the championships between them. The 39 teams lucky enough to be in such a large market account for 31.9% of all the professional teams in America. However, at the same time, they have more appearances in league championships than the other 83 teams do combined. WHat does this mean? The influx of money in professional sports, and the concentration of that money into major markets have left small market teams in the dust. Teams in Kansas City, Florida, New Orleans, or anywhere in the West outside of LA don't stand a chance anymore. Sure, they may have a run once in a while thanks to a bit of luck and a great star (Saints, Colts, Marlins, Lightning, Rays, and Rockies), but in the long run, they won't really make a dent in their respective sports. The Royals (Kansas City), Seahawks (Seattle), Grizzlies (Memphis), and Wild (Minnesota) will continue to be the punching bag of bigger and better teams, a game on the schedule they will always be able to mark down as a win before the season even starts.

The Minnesota Wild actually proves this best. Minnesota and the Northern part of America is hockey town: the Minnesota Golden Gophers, Wisconsin Badgers, and Michigan Wolverines are always contendors for the NCAA hockey championship. Why? Because kids grow up playing hockey there, and want to go to school close to home. Youth and high school hockey is HUGE up there, and the high school stars go play for the school they've rooted for throughout their childhood: usually the ones closest to their home. But as soon as money enters the picture, the story changes. If we were to follow the same pattern, the Minnesota college stars would want to play for the Minnesota Wild or the Winnipeg Jets: close to home. But how have these teams fared? Well, The Wild haven't been the Stanley Cup since their inception in 2000, and the Winnipeg Jets were forced to relocate to Phoenix. Big money teams like Detroit and Chicago can pay players more because they can sell more tickets, sell more merchandise, and attract more sponsers.

And until the leagues make some major revenue sharing moves or something else extraodinary, this will continue to be the case. Its been 12 years since we've had a World Series between two teams not from Chicago, Boston, Philly, or NYC. Its been six years for the NFL, three for the NHL; and if you throw in Texas, the NBA has NEVER had a finals between two small market teams.

The Houston Texans Will Make The Playoffs

The Texans will make the playoffs because they will finish 9-7. Here’s why:

Their next two games (at Miami, vs. NE) look intimidating, but really they aren’t.
Miami will be playing a quarterback in his first year as starter, Chad Henne, who doesn’t have the big game experience that is necessary in a game like this. He’s been intercepted eight times in his last four games, while throwing only four TDs. Accordingly, Miami has had to rely on their running game all season, and rank fourth in the NFL in rushing yards. The Texans, on the other hand, have allowed 100 rushing yards only once in their last eleven games, and the run-heavy Dolphins will have trouble gaining yards against an ever-improving Texans defense. The game against NE is an easy one. The Pats will be coming off a playoff-clinching win against the Jaguars, and should be resting some of their key offensive starters. But what’s more important is the Texans’ passing attack. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are becoming one of the biggest combos in the game, and will tear apart the young Patriots secondary.

However, the Texans will need a little help from their fellow AFC contenders. There are still seven teams fighting for the two AFC wild card spots. Since Houston will be winning out, the other four 7-7 teams will only have to lose once, and they all will. Jacksonville will lose in New England in Week 16; the Dolphins will lose against Houston in Week 16; the Jets will lose their two remaining games in Indianapolis and against Cincinnati; and the Steelers will lose in Week 17 in Miami. Baltimore will lose to the Steelers and the Raiders, thus finishing the season 8-8. This sounds a little crazy, but stick with me. Pittsburgh lost to the Ravens by just three points in Week 12, and Pittsburgh will come back with a vengeance to win in Week 16. Oakland has won five games this season, four of which came against playoff contenders (Philly, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Denver). They will pull off another upset in Week 17 with Bruce Gradkowski back from a knee injury that sidelined him in Denver, and with another big game from Michael Bush, who had 133 rushing yards last week against Denver.

The 2010 postseason will be the first in franchise history for the Houston Texans (expansion team in 2002), and will secure the head coaching job of Gary Kubiak for at least another season.

What's Up with That? The Next Welker

After last week’s preseason game against the Philadelphia Eagles, we’re already hearing that rookie Julian Edelman will become the next Wes Welker. And, why? Cause he’s a small white dude who can catch. What’s up with that? Just cause he’s sub-6’0” with great hands and crazy speed doesn’t make him a clone of Wes! Well, actually, there’s a lot more to the comparison than that.

Size:
Welker—5’9”
Edelman—5’10”
Race:
Welker—white
Edelman—white
Primary position:
Welker—WR
Edelman—WR
Returner:
Welker—holds NCAA record for most punts returned for TDs
Edelman—returned a punt 75 yards for TD in his preseason debut with the Pats
Versatility:
Welker—second player in NFL history to return a punt and kickoff, kick and extra point and field goal, and make a tackle in one game
Edelman—3-year starter at D-I school, Kent St., as a quarterback!
Usage:
Welker—short routes, great on third down
Edelman—use his speed and quickness to beat coverage down low
Weakness:
Welker—too small to be used on deep routes
Edelman—ditto
Doubted:
Welker—went undrafted in 2004 NFL Draft
Edelman—not even invited to NFL Combine this year

So what’s up with these unwarranted comparisons? Well, they’re pretty justified, actually.

The Vick Saga Comes to Philly

Michael Vick signed a two-year deal with the Philadelphia Eagles on Friday. His unconditional suspension by Commissioner Roger Goodell is expected to be lifted after 3-4 regular season games. Vick is expected to be ready to play by the time the third and final Eagles preseason season game rolls around on Setpember third against the Panthers.



That is the press conference held by the Eagles to officially introduce Michael Vick to the squad. I don’t know what it is about it, but I have the gut feeling that Vick understands his wrongdoing and how it is affected his career. I think we’ve seen the end of Vick’s off-field troubles, and he will be able to begin again in the NFL, and work his way into a starting role somewhere. I have to say, I appreciate how Vick has handled himself throughout his ordeal. He has kept his cool and has remained calm, suave even, as he tries to not agitate any of the intense emotions felt by Americans nation-wide. He will be on 60 Minutes tonight to hold his first televised interview since 2007 when he confessed to torturing and killing dogs as part of his dogfighting ring. This could be the be-all or end-all for Vick, as he makes one last push to sway the nation.

Notoriously unforgiving PETA still questions Vick’s sincerity and is skeptical as to the genuineness of his remorse, or if he only out to repair his image. Instead of trying to futilely work with PETA, who is still contemplating organized protests wherever Vick plays football, the ex-Falcon is cooperating with the Humane Society to appease those middle-ground Americans: there are overly-righteous animal lovers who will never forgive Vick for his role in dogfighting, there are those who believe he has paid his debt to society and deserves a second chance no matter how he conducts himself from here on out, and there are those who are withholding their judgment until they can determine whether the quarterback is genuinely sorry for his actions. It is this last group whom Vick is attempting to sway. So far, I’d say he’s done a fine job.

Based on reports from Eagles training camp, Vick’s athleticism has not been overstated—he’s indeed a superathlete who can throw a football in his sleep. I’m looking forward to seeing how the Philadelphia coaching staff will utilize Vick. McNabb is the undisputed starter for the Eagles, who have him locked up until his 12-year deal ends in 2013. Vick’s two-year contract with the Eagles is worth $1.6 million, and we’ll soon see if Vick can become the dual-threat QB he once was, or if he’ll be used exclusively in the wildcat formation, maybe even as a wide receiver. But when 2011 rolls around, we’ll see if his role with the Eagles has shown he can be a starting quarterback in the NFL.

Here's the NFL Network's report from Eagles' training camp:
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-training-camps/09000d5d811ebe87/Vick-practices-with-Eagles

Heisman Trophy 's Meaning in the NFL

The Heisman Trophy is awarded to the most outstanding college football player and is the most prestigious award in the NCAA. Each of the 74 players who have been honored with the award deserves tremendous praise for their collegiate careers. However, what is even more impressive is when such success at the college level translates into success at the professional level. And in recent years, that just hasn’t happened. You can attribute that disconnect from NCAA to NFL stars to whatever you want—hype puts too much pressure on Heisman winners, NCAA football is played too differently than NFL football that it’s incredibly hard to be great at both, NCAA starlets get too accustomed to playing at the college level that they cannot transition to the NFL—whatever it is, especially in recent years, there is substantial evidence that a Heisman winner has a hard time having the same success he did in college as he did in the NFL.

Since Barry Sanders won the award in 1988, there have been 20 recipients of the Heisman Award. Fourteen went drafted in the top five rounds of the NFL Draft, including ten first-rounders. So there’s no question as to how NFL front offices look at Heisman winners—they like them, a lot. However, only four have had any measurable success in pro football, and two have yet to appear in an NFL game at all. Eddie George (1995), Charles Woodson (1997), Ricky Williams (1998), and Carson Palmer (2002) are the only players since 1988 to have both won the Heisman Trophy in college, and to have started at least 10 games in 2 or more seasons in the NFL. Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, good luck.

No Vick, No Problem

Well, it is over. No, Mike Vick hasn't signed with a team or anything, but in the Patriots' eyes, it's over. Saturday, Rob Kraft ruled out the possibility of the team signing Vick, a possibility the whole nation speculated the Pats would do. Despite alleged "Vick spottings" late in the week, Kraft said on Sirius Sattelite Radio saturday, "For us, that’s an academic problem because we’ve got the number one player in the world at that position, as far as I’m concerned. Why would we want do anything that would take (quarterback Tom Brady) off the field for one play?" So New England PETA members can calm down now, Vick will not be coming to New England.

Training Camp Update: Bill Belichick has definitely made the opening days of training camp hard, as he scheduled Two-a-Days for the whole first week of training camp. But the players aren't complaining. They know it is important for later in the year, and it only makes them stronger. Rookie Darius Butler has lined up in the #2 CB spot here and there for a couple practices. The secondary seems to have jumped up from 2008. Brandon Merriweather is making good plays, along with 2nd year CB Terrence Wheatley. 2009 Draft picks Chung and Butler have also looked sharp. As far as I can see, OLB Adalius Thomas has been the best player in training camp thus far, making unbelivable plays and being smart. Granted, it's only training camp, but look for Thomas to have a breakout '09.

M. Vick (Not Who You Think)

When you think Virginia Tech QBs, who do you think of? I bet the first name that comes to mind is Vick. After all, no ACC player accounted for more total points for his team than Vick did for VT. He had an ACC-best 6 rush TDs for a quarterback, to go along with 17 passing TDs, 2nd in the ACC. Unfortunately, Vick went undrafted in the 2006 NFL Draft. I’m talking about Marcus Vick, of course, the younger brother of Michael by 4 years. So what happened to this replica of the 2001 Draft’s #1 overall pick? They are both scrambling quarterbacks, they both run a sub-4.50 40-yard dash, they both led Virginia Tech to 11-win seasons, and together scored 61 TDs at Virginia Tech in three seasons. If you look purely at the stats, you could argue that Marcus was the better quarterback of the two. In his only season with Virginia Tech, he completed 61.2% of his passes for 2393 yards and 17 TDs, all three numbers trump those of his older brother’s two seasons at VT.

If Marcus was a better passer on the field, he was worse off the field. His amazing junior year in college should have made him a lock to go in the first few rounds. However, his on-field and off-field demeanor were too foreboding for anyone to give him another chance at football. Countless traffic offenses, speeding tickets galore, possession of marijuana, charges of rape, and unsportsmanlike conduct on the field resulted in his permanent dismissal from the Virginia Tech football program. “It’s not a big deal, I’ll just move on to the next level, baby,” he said—the next level being the 2006 NFL Draft, where he told ESPN that he considered himself better than 1st rounders Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, and his brother Michael Vick. Apparently NFL front offices didn’t think so, as all 32 teams passed on him. What I should say is that NFL front offices acknowledged his talent, but did not anticipate him staying out of legal troubles as he continues his football career, and thus were not consider signing him a good idea. He did end up signing with the Miami Dolphins as a WR/QB/returnman, but played only one game in the NFL. Since the ’06 Draft, those owners, GMs, and coaches who passed on his proved their wisdom. He’s been charged with several traffic violations, including driving with a suspended license; brandishing a firearm, which he claimed was actually his Blackberry cell phone, mistaken for a gun; DUI, eluding police, reckless driving, and driving with a suspended license—all in one night; no wonder he’s not playing professional football! As for his brother, that remains to be seen.

Brett Favre Retires, Take 3

March 4, 2008


Real? No--he decided he wanted to play again the following offseason. After tense diologue between Favre and Green Bay General Manager Ted Thompson, the Packers traded him to the NY Jets on August 7 for a fourth round pick in that year's NFL draft (the took defensive end Jeremy Thompson out of Wake Forest).

Retirement from Jets? Real? This summer, even though it seemed like it we had once again been punk'd, even though Favre had surgery to repair his throwing arm this offseason, even though he once again considered a comeback with the, even though he contacted the Vikings about another return, we'll have to wait another year to see Favre on the field. He told Vikings head coach Brad Childress yesterday he plans to stay retired, saying his mind and body could not endure a 19th season in the NFL. Don't count him out for 2010, though.

In his career, he holds the NFL QB record for: pass attemps, completions, TDs, interceptions, yards, games won, and consecutive games started. Not too shabby.