Team to Watch: Houston Texans

With only five players (excluding special teams) age 30 years or older, the Texans have immense potential. Since 2003, they’ve drafted four players to be voted to the All Pro team—Andre Johnson, Jerome Mathis, Mario Williams, and DeMeco Ryans. Add to that this year’s performance of rookie linebacker Brian Cushing out of USC: 128 tackles (first among NFL rookies), 4 sacks (second highest for NFL rookies; first in AFC), 4 interceptions (the only rookie to have more is Buffalo’s Jairus Byrd, a free safety), and 2 forced fumbles (tied for second among NFL rookies), and the Texans have compiled some of the most impressive draft histories in recent memory. In 2009, they started three rookies, and two others have played in every game this season. In 2006, we scoffed at their passing off Reggie Bush for Mario Williams. Well I ask you, who’s laughing now? The Texans have one of the youngest teams in the NFL and have nowhere to go but up.

Quarterback Matt Schaub has shown himself Pro Bowl worthy for the first time this year. He has thrown for more yards than any QB through week 15, is third in completion percentage behind only Drew Brees and Peyton Manning (elite company, I’d say), and is one of only three quarterbacks to throw more than 58 passes of 20+ yards and less than 15 interceptions. He has missed nine games due to injury in the past two years, but he’s only 28 years old (Romo is 29, Brees is 30, Brady is 32, Manning is 33) and has a bright future ahead of him. I predict him to be the best quarterback in the NFL in five years. Brees, Brady, and Manning will be washed-up by then; Roethlisberger (27) will not amount to much in the next few years, as he will continue to fight injuries—he’s only started 16 games once in his career and averages 40 sacks per season; Romo and Eli have yet to prove themselves, and could take a few more years to become top-tier quarterbacks; right now, only Phillip Rivers (28), Jay Cutler (26), and Matt Ryan (24) could possibly challenge Schaub in the coming years as NFL’s top quarterback.

But no one will have better weapons at wide receiver than the Texans in the coming years. Andre Johnson has finally come into his own after being drafted in the first round of the 2003 Draft. He has the most receiving yards of any WR by almost 200 yards and is the second-biggest deep threat after Philly’s Desean Jackson. Houston has nine players who have caught at least 15 passes this season, none of whom have played in the NFL for more than 7 years. The Pats have seven, who together average 8 years experience. You might be thinking that experience is a good thing, and it is. For the short term. Kevin Faulk is a great weapon for the Pats…right now. How great will he be in three years? He’ll probably be out of the NFL. The Texans, on the other hand, have a solid receiving corps to count for the next several years. Matt Schaub and the Houston offense will continue to put up big numbers and will continue to win games.

There’s no question as to where the strength of this Texans team is: it’s the passing game. It’s not the defense and it’s not the run game. As far as defense goes, the Texans aren’t great, but aren’t bad either. They have a reliable defense that gives up a little more than 20 points and 325 yards per game, right in the middle of the pack for the NFL. Super Bowls are no longer won with stellar defenses; it’s becoming more of an offense-driven league every year. So I don’t think much focus should be put on the Houston D. They do, however, need to focus on the run game. In 2009, only the Colts run for fewer yards. This is especially crucial in the red zone. Of all the teams with over 350 points this season, the Texans have the fewest run TDs, which hurts them most in the red zone. What number troubles me is that the Texans are 11th in total points this season, yet they are 5th in total yards. This tells me that their red zone game sucks. Even though they are gaining tons of yards, they can struggle to point enough points on the board. Their 52.7% TD conversion in the red zone is not going to cut it if they have Super Bowl aspirations. Only one 11-win team has a lower red zone conversion percentage, the Eagles. Indy and New Orleans together have a 62% conversion rate, and that is why they were both undefeated entering week 14.

The Texans will be a playoff contender for the next several years, and have Super Bowl potential. But they’re not there yet. If they really want to go somewhere other than a 9-7 season, they’ll need to get a new coach, work on their run game, maintain their electric passing game, and continue to have successful defense-centric (less risky) drafts.