SOTD: Teams Left in NFL

Of the four remaining teams in the playoffs...

1. Three teams play home games in a dome
2. Two teams have rookie head coaches
3. Three quarterbacks had regular season passer ratings of over 100 and completion percentages higher than 68%
4. Two quarterbacks were top 5 draft picks; two were 2nd round picks
5. Four quarterbacks were born in Southern states (Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, SoCal)

Stat of the Day: Scoring Efficiency

In last Sunday’s classic against the Yankees, the game went to New York, who won by three runs. However, the Red Sox managed to get nine hits throughout the game, to the Yankees ten. How did the Yankees manage to win by such a margin, despite getting practically the same number of hits as the BoSox? The Yankees are one of the best teams in the MLB at manufacturing runs. It’s becoming a lost art, but scoring runs efficiently is an extremely important piece to a winning ballclub. You can’t rely on all your hitters to create runs purely by hits; walks, stolen bases, bunts, an extra base hits can create runs without basing too much offense on the base hit. The MLB average of runs per hit is .509. Teams that are above the average are able to manufacture runs through things like the extra-base hit, stolen bases, timely hits, sac flies, etc. Teams that are below the average may have decent, even above-average hitters, but for whatever reason are not able to drive them in.

Top three teams, scoring efficiency
1. Phillies (top five OBP, SLG, HR, SB% in MLB)
2. Rays (most stolen bases in MLB)
3. Rockies (most sacrifice flies in MLB)

Bottom three teams, scoring efficiency
28. Giants (lowest OBP in MLB)
29. Astros (ground into most double plays in MLB)
30. Mariners (bottom five in XBH, BB, OBP in MLB)

Stat of the Day: Steals

The common belief is that the National League plays baseball more strategically than the American League. Is it? Well, NL teams sacrifice bunt almost twice as much AL teams, and they also intentially walk batters more frequently than the AL by a considerable margin. However, the American League has stolen more bases per game than the National League for the eighth time in the past nine years (thanks to, in large part, Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford combining for 102 SB, compared to the top to NL base stealers combining for 75). So on the basepaths, the American Leaguers do take more risks and play with somewhat of a strategy, but I'd still like to see the Sox do some more bunting. Tito needs to stop relying on batters like Nick Green (.306 OPB) and Jason Varitek (.329 OPB) to move a runner over with their swings. If you think about it (giving them a few more points for a fielder's choice here and there), batters like these two will move a runner over 35% of the time if you let them swing away. (Green and Tek will strikeout 35% and 22%, respectively). And if they bunt, the chances of them moving the runner over a base are virtually 100%. As of today, Boston is second to last in the MLB with 11 sac bunts. Maybe it's an AL East thing--the Sox, Yanks, Rays, Jays, and O's are five of the bottom six teams in the MLB in sacrifice bunts.

Stat of the Day: Playing their Cards Right

The St. Louis Cardinals have three starting pitchers with ERAs under 3.00. Chris Carpenter leads the NL with a 2.10 ERA, while Adam Wrainwright has earned 12 wins with his 2.80 ERA, and Joel Pineiro maintains a slim 2.84 ERA. How many Red Sox starters have a sub-3.00 ERA? Zero. What about the Yankees? Zero. Tampa Bay? Nada. As a team, the Cards have the third-lowest ERA in the Majors, to go along with the second-fewest walks. With the acquisition of Matt Holliday (.606 BA, 10 RBI, 3 HR, 1.061 SLG in nine games since joining the Cardinals), look for the Cardinals to make a run here in the second half. As of today, they lead the Cubs by 0.5 games in the NL Central, and are 7-3 in their last ten games.

Stat of the Day: In the Field

People point to a poor back of the rotation, untimely hitting, and lack of offense when they look at the Red Sox' woes. But what about defense? In terms of errors and fielding percentage, the Sox are middle of the pack, 15th and 18th respectively. But they have turned the second fewest double plays, and have allowed the most steals in the Majors, and have the lowest DER of any team. "DER" is an interesting stat I looked up, and it stands for Defense Efficiency Ratio, and it equals the percent of batted balls that are turned into outs by a defense. Boston's .689 DER means that only 68.9% of any ball put in play will become an out. A low DER like this typically means that our pitching staff relies too heavily on the strikeout and don't give their fielders a chance to make a play. Not surprisingly, the Sox have the most strikeouts in the AL. Pitchers should be making it a priority to keep their fielders on their toes by making a pitch not that is nit so good it cannot be hit and risk walking too many batters, but a pitch that's bad enough to be hit, but good enough to not be hit well. Look at Derek Lowe's no hitter of 2002: only 6 strikeouts. It's not about striking batters out, it's about recording outs, however that can be done. This seems like the first year where the Red Sox don't really have any defensive specialists--a David Roberts, Alex Cora, Gabe Kapler, or Doug Menkevich-type player.

Stat of the Day: The Unearned Run

Bartolo Colon and Daniel Cabrera lead the Majors in unearned runs. In just 12 games, 13 unearned runs have found their way to the scoreboard for the North Siders' Colon. He has a decent 4.19 ERA, but a record of only 3-6. Sloppy defense probably has something to do with that. Daniel Cabrera, formerly of the Baltimore Orioles, now with the Washington Nationals, has also given up 13 unearned runs. He is 0-5 in 8 starts with an ERA approaching 6.00. Lo and behold, the Nationals have more errors than any other ballclub, and the White Sox are 5th worst in the MLB.

Stat of the Day: The Error

According to baseball writer Bill James, the “error” is one of the most useless and misleading statistics in baseball. “It’s a moral judgment” he says, “you have to do something right to get an error; even if the ball is right at you, then you were standing in the right place to begin with”. I don’t disagree with him. An outfielder could get a great break on a ball, take the right angle towards it, and get within an arm’s reach of a well-hit fly ball. If it bounces off his glove, he gets an error. On the other hand, if an outfielder does not judge the trajectory of the ball correctly, he ends up taking one step forward, one back, then sprints forward, only to slide and miss a shoestring catch that ends up as a triple, he’s off the hook. Who would you rather have? The one who can determine the path of the ball exquisitely but occasionally drops a can-a-corn, or the one who reliably has to field the ball on a bounce because he has no idea where it’s going when it leaves the bat? I’ll take the former any day of the week. To prove that simply watching a player cannot accurately judge his defensive prowess, he tells you to think about this: “If [the batter] hits a smash down the line and the third baseman makes a diving stop and throws the runner out, then we notice and applaud the third baseman. But until the smash is hit, who is watching the third baseman? If he anticipates, if he adjusts for the hitter and moves over just two steps, then the same smash is a routine backhand stop—and nobody applauds”. I do think errors are an important statistic, but by no means do they tell you all you need to know about a player’s defensive ability. Here’s some stats to look at.

Since 1995, Derek Jeter has committed the most errors of any player. In that time, he’s won three Gold Gloves. Craig Biggio has the most errors of any second basemen in that time—he has four Gold Gloves to his name. Since 1999, the four top error-committers have been shortstops. By no means does that mean they are poor fielders. On the contrary, shortstop is where managers like to play their best defensive players. They commit so many “errors” because they can get to many more balls and have so many chances to commit an “error” than any other fielder. Brandon Inge and David Wright, two of the most amazing fielders in the game (Web Gems, anyone?) are two of the worst thirty defensive players in the MLB, according to the error stat.

In case you’re wondering, this Bill James character invented his own statistic that he feels measures a player’s defensive ability more accurately. It’s called the range factor: (putouts + assists) ÷ innings played. Instead of counting the number of mistakes a position player made, it counts all the successful plays made in the field and does not penalize a player for dropping a ball he might have made a great play just to get to.

Stat of the Day: Around the MLB

Of the nine batters with the most home runs in the Major Leagues, seven play in the National League. So much for the designated hitter. In fact, Toronto’s Adam Lind has the most HR of any DH with 20—good enough to be tied for 16th in the MLB.

Only three Red Sox position players have played 80+ games this year, the fewest in the AL East; four Blue Jays have played 90+ games. Albert Pujols leads the Majors, and is the only player to have played in 92 games this season. More than anything else, this stat shows the depth of the Red Sox roster. They have the flexibility to give a player the day off, without sacrificing much on either side of the field. Whereas most teams are only comfortable starting their starters, Tito can use his backups without so much as a second thought.

Stat of the Day: The Effects of a Full Count

Out of the Red Sox starting nine, only one player is batting better than .250 with a full count this season. That player is David Ortiz. His BA with a full count is far away the best on the team; his .414 average is .164 higher than the Sox’s second best hitter with a 3-2 count, Kevin Youkilis (.250). I think this statistic explains why we love David so much. With the pressure on, and the Fenway Faithful on their feet, Ortiz comes through more often than any other Red Sock. In fact, even with Ortiz in the lineup, the Red Sox BA with a 3-2 count is .215. As a whole, the team batting average for the BoSox is .265, a full .50 points higher than our pipsqueak .215 with a full count. I didn’t know if this was a Boston idiosyncrasy, or if most teams struggle with a full count. So I took a look at the Yankee lineup. Their team BA with a full count is .264, whereas their team batting average, disregarding the count is .276, a difference of only .012 points. But more importantly, the Yankee BA with a full count is way better than what the Sox do when the count is full. Also, it may surprise you to know which Bronx Bomber has the best BA with a full count. No, not Mr. Clutch Derek Jeter, but Johnny Damon. His .429 average with a full count is even better than Big Papi’s!

So what have we learned after this rant? David Ortiz’s reputation for being good in clutch is no fallacy; he is in his element with the pressure on. In fact, his .414 3-2 BA is second only to the classic hitter’s count of 3-0. Also, when Johnny Damon is at the plate with a full count, be careful what you throw him. Next, the Red Sox lineup as a whole should not let the count run full all that much (especially Mike Lowell, who bats .111 with a full count), and should try their hardest to find a pitch to hit early in the count.

Stat of the Day: Youkilis

Of the top 50 AL hitters, (by BA), the average difference between their BA and OBP is .66. So if a batter hit .305, one would expect his OBP to be .371. A difference of more than .66 would indicate that a batter has a keen eye, and thus walks quite a bit—this is a good thing. Generally speaking, walks are good, and if a batter can maintain a high BA, and high OBP, he is a valuable asset to his team. Kevin Youkilis’s OBP is an astonishing 1.20 higher than his BA. Of the top AL hitters, this range is second only to Ben Zobrist of the Tampa Bay Rays, (1.22). Nevertheless, Youk’s data is more impressive because his BA is still .9 points higher than that of Zobrist, and his OBP is .7 points higher. Here’s what I mean:
Ben Zobrist: Batting average = .282
On-base percentage = .404
Difference, .404 -.282 = 1.22

Kevin Youkilis: Batting average = .291
On-base percentage = .411
Difference, .411 - .291 = 1.20

Stat of the Day: Junebug

David Ortiz has finished one fantastic June after his maddening first few months to the season. Take a look at his numbers: .320 BA, 7 HR, 18 RBI, 1.062 OPS in 24 games. In each of these four telling stats, Ortiz ranks better than the entire AL All-Star starting infield of Evan Longoria, Derek Jeter, Dustin Pedroia, and Mark Teixera. On top of that, he’s only made one fielding error all season!


But what’s most interesting about this breakout June is that it wouldn’t be totally out of the question for him to keep batting at this pace for the rest of the year. If he batted a whole year at the pace of this past June, he would not set career highs in any category. His 1.062 OPS would rank behind his 1.066 of 2007, and his .320 BA would not be as good as the .332 he hit in ’07. The 121 RBI he would be on pace for would be less than the ’04, ’05, and ’06 seasons, and his 47 projected homers would tie his 2005 total, and fall short of the 54 he hit in 2006. So what does this June ’09 tell us about the remainder of Papi’s season? We know he still has it in him to put up big numbers, and it wouldn’t be asking too much of the 5-time All-Star to keep hitting as well as he did in June.

Furthermore, over the course of David’s career, June has been a turning point. What D-Day was to WWII, the month of June is to Ortiz’s hitting statistics. Once June rolls around, everything else starts to unfold for Ortiz. With each month following June, Ortiz’s numbers improve in every major category: his career hits, runs, doubles, RBI, walks, and homers are better in July than they were in June, and better in August than they were in July. Let’s look/hope for a monster rest of the season from Big Papi.

Stat of the Day: NFL Players Born in MA

Cambridge: 18 (627 games)
Everett: 14 (503 games)
Worcester: 12 (597 games)
Brockton: 10 (179)
Weymouth: 7 (319)
Dorchester: 6 (433)
Quincy: 5 (515)
Bridgewater: 4 (292)
Newton: 3 (144)
Needham: 3 (134)
Brookline: 3 (39)
Cohasset: 2 (182)
Milton: 1 (5 were named Milton)
Hingham: 1 (John Cronin)
Canton: 0
Scituate: 0
Randolph: 0
Braintree: 0
Boston: 82

Most games played by a Massachussets-ite: 218 by Defensive Tackle Joseph Nash from Boston (1982-1996)

Stat of the Day: Pretty Pitching

The Red Sox are the only team in all of MLB to have four pitchers with at least 6 wins. Some teams (Phillies, Nationals, A's, and Orioles) don't have any pitchers who have won 6 games.

Wakefield: 9-3 Beckett: 8-3
Penny: 6-2 Lester 6-6

This stat speaks not only to how well the starting rotation has performed, but it also demonstrates the success of our bullpen. Red Sox relievers have allowed a total of 87 runs this year. (Compare that to the Yanks: 101; and to the team with the best record in baseball, the Dodgers: 101. Our strong bullpen, anchored by Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, and Ramon Ramirez, has been able to hold the leads for that game's starter, allowing him to take the win.

Stat #2: Among the 13 NL pitchers who have at least 7 wins, you will find Bronson Arroyo (8-6, with Cincinnati) and Derek Lowe (7-5, with Atlanta)

On another note, John Smoltz will make his first start of the season tonight against the Nationals, and will hopefully keep the USS Fenway from rocking too much until Daisuke returns from the DL. When he does, Smoltz could be moved to the bullpen. After all, from 2001-2004, he picked up 154 saves for Atlanta, with an ERA of 3.02.

Stat of the Day: In the Top 5

Strikeout to walk ratio: 2.20 For every walk surrendered by Sox pitching, they strike out 2.20 batters
MLB rank: 3
AL rank: 3
Closest AL East team: NY (#14 in MLB)

Strikeouts per 9 innings: 7.68
MLB rank: 3
AL rank: 1
Closest AL East team: NY (#5)

Save percentage: 73%
MLB rank: 4
AL rank: 2
Closest AL East team: NY (#7)

Complete games: 5
MLB rank: T-3
AL rank: T-2
Closest AL East team: TOR (#T-6)

Slugging percentage: .453 Red Sox batters score .453 runs per at bat
MLB rank: 5
AL rank: 4
Closest AL East team: NY (#1)

Total walks: 298
MLB rank: 1
AL rank: 1
Closest AL East team: TB (#2)

Runs scored: 376
MLB rank: 3
AL rank: 3
Closest AL East team: TB (#1)

Doubles: 157
MLB rank: 1
AL rank: 1
Closest AL East team: TOR (#2)
**Stats up to Wednesday, June 24

Stat of the Day: More W's

Tim Wakefield put up another W for the Sox last night, as he becomes the fifth pitcher in the Major Leagues to win 9 games this season. Only one player (injured Roy Halladay) has more wins than the knuckleballer this season. Who knows, he may even get a shot at his first All-Star game! Joe Madden of the Rays, who has never coached an All-Star game, will be the AL skipper in the mid-summer classic. Madden isn’t your cookie cutter manager, and he may very well consider putting a knuckleballer on his pitching staff over the typical power pitcher you usually see chosen by coaches.

The Red Sox have 23 games remaining before the All-Star break, of which Wakefield will likely start four. At the pace he’s at now, 3 wins to every 1 loss (9-3 record), he’ll finish 12-4 before the All-Star break. Last year, only two pitchers had 12 wins at mid-season—one was Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee. The average number of wins for all the pitchers selected for the 2009 All-Star game was 10.5, and the average number of innings pitched per game was under 6.8. Wakefield throws an average of 6.3 innings per start, and with the second-most wins in the AL, Madden would be foolish not to take a second look at him. In addition, most National Leaguers have never seen Wakefield, or any pitcher like him. How often does a batter not in the AL East see a 65 mph knuckler sail over their head, then find the catcher’s mitt in the middle of the strike zone? Having a pitcher like Wakefield on the AL pitching staff would be an advantage for the American League squad, as long as Joe Mauer can handle the erratic floater, that is. In the four starts Wake will have before the break, he’ll need to continue the path he’s on in order to make the team. He’ll probably face the Braves twice (interleague play), followed by the Orioles and A’s. Baltimore and Oakland are both last in their divisions, and the Braves are 6 games under .500. Look for Wake when the final All-Star rosters are released on July 9th.

Stat of the Day: Watch Wakefield Win

Tim Wakefield has quietly been one of the best starting pitchers in the American League this season. After the superhuman Roy Halladay (who has just landed himself a trip to the DL, probably because of all the pitching he’s pushed himself to do (he’s the only pitcher in the MLB to have thrown over 100 innings this season)), Wakefield has the most wins of any pitcher in the AL. With a record of 8-3 through twelve starts, only four pitchers have more wins than he does; three of them have the advantage of playing in the National League, where one in every nine batters is almost a guaranteed out, and the overall offense is weaker. And at age 42, he’s far and away the oldest of any pitcher with 8+ wins; Roy Halladay is closest, at age 32. Nevertheless, of the eight pitchers have at least 8 wins this season, only four, Wakefield being one of them, have thrown multiple complete games. Tonight, Wake goes up against Hanley Ramirez and the Florida Marlins, who are 3rd in the NL East, 6 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies.

Stat of the Day: Lakers vs. Celtics

Since the NBA’s first season in 1946, the Celtics have reached the NBA finals 20 times, and have more titles than any other franchise: 17 (85% winning percentage). The LA Lakers, on the other hand, have been to the NBA finals a whopping 30 times, but have managed only 15 titles, a mere 50% winning percentage. LA’s longest drought of not reaching the finals is seven years (1973-1980), compared to the Celtic’s twenty years from 1987 to 2008. Thus, the Lakers have been consistently good since their first NBA championship in 1949; they won their division at least twice in every decade, whereas the Celtics have created a pattern of dominant eras, followed by lackluster ones. They won eight NBA championships back-to-back from 1959to 1966, but went to the finals only twice in the 70s. Then, they played for the NBA championship in four consecutive years from 1984 to 1987, followed by a dry spell of twenty years, which ended only last year in 2008. The Celtics are better head-to-head in the finals, winning 9 of the 11 times.

Conference titles:
Celtics: 20
Lakers: 30

NBA titles
Celtics: 17
Lakers: 15

Win % in finals
Celtics: 85%
Lakers: 50%

Longest time without reaching finals
Celtics: 20 years (1987-2008)
Lakers: 7 years (1973-1980)

Most titles back-to-back
Celtics: 8 (1959-1966)
Lakers: 3 (1952-1954, 2000-2002)

Head-to-head wins in finals
Celtics: 9
Lakers: 2

Stat of the Day: Infinitely High ERA

Did you know that it’s possible for a Major League pitcher to have an ERA of infinity? Well, if you didn’t John Lackey proved you wrong last month. In his first start of the season, Lackey was ejected after two pitches to Texas leadoff batter Ian Kinsler. The first pitch sailed over Kinsler’s head, and the second nailed him in the side. Apparently short-tempered home plate umpire Bob Davidson had seen enough, and threw Lackey out of the game. Kinsler went on to score later in that inning, attributing one earned-run to Lackey. Meanwhile, the unfortunate Angels pitcher recorded no outs, and had thus pitched 0.00 innings. So next time you see an ERA ∞ on the back of a baseball card, don’t act so surprised.