My Round 1 Picks

Three Week 17 rematches will be featured in the first round of The Playoffs

Patriots over Ravens
The loss of Welker isn’t as damaging as you might think. Rookie Julian Edelman is all the hype and by no means overrated. The Ravens were able to take Welker out the game in Week 4 anyway: on his first game back from injury, Welker only had six catches against the Ravens –which is his 2nd lowest total for the season—for 48 yards. The Pats went on to win that game 27-21. Tom Brady is 14-3 career in the playoffs and has never lost his first playoff game; the Pats finally have all their backs healthy: Laurence Maroney sat out Week 17 and will be rested, Sammy Morris is back from his injuries that sidelined him for six games in the middle of the season, and Fred Taylor rushed for two TDs last week and has recovered from his ankle injury that kept him out 10 games.

Bengals over Jets
The Jets played out of their minds on Sunday, and there’s no way that will happen again, this time in Cincinnati. The Bengals have had some quality wins this season, including at Green Bay, twice against Pittsburgh, and twice against Baltimore. Their losses came in a last-second lucky touchdown in Week 1 in Denver (they were good then, remember?), at Minnesota, at San Diego, a fluke loss to the up-and-down Oakland Raiders, and a Week 17 blowout that really had no impact on their playoff seeding. The only quality wins I’d give the Jets came in the first two weeks of the season against the Texans and Patriots; you could also throw in Week 15 against the Falcons, but I wouldn’t. The Bengals now know Sanchez won’t throw the ball next week (he threw for only 63 yards in Week 17) and the Cincinnati D can focus on stopping Brad Smith and the above-average run game of the Jets.

Cowboys over Eagles
What December woes? (What overused cliché?) Tony Romo has averaged 310 yards his last six games, throwing only two interceptions to go along with eleven touchdowns. The ‘Boys will be back in Dallas, and I don’t see any reason they won’t steamroll the Eagles in Round #2. The Dallas defense is playing harder than they have all season, and have shutout their last two opponents. The ‘Boys will likely be playing for their coach Wade Phillip’s job, and I think that they will be motivated more than they have been all season. The Cowboys haven’t won a playoff game since 1996. Jerry Jones didn’t spend a bazillion dollars on his new stadium to lose another playoff game. He wants to win. The Cowboy fans want to win. His team wants to win. They will win.

Packers over Cardinals
Aaron Rodgers is coming into his own after living in the shadow of Brett Favre, and is becoming one of the elite passers in the NFL. He still has some game management skills that he can improve upon, but when it comes to purely throwing the football, there’s few I’d rather have than Aaron Rodgers. Speaking of Brett Favre though, I don’t think veteran Kurt Warner, at age 38, really has any more big games in him. He averages less than 250 passing yards in his last five games (excluding Week 17, when he threw but six passes), and the Cardinals don’t really have much of a run game that he can lean on: Tim Hightower hasn’t had more than 15 carries all season. Of the twelve playoff teams, the Cardinals total the second fewest yards per game, and I don’t see their defense stopping the Packers 6th-ranked offense. To tell you the truth, I’m not really impressed with the Cardinals. At all. You know how many wins they had against teams with records better than .500? One. Against the Texans in Week 5…Warner and the Cards were coming off of a buy week. I mean look at their schedule. They beat St. Louis twice, they beat Seattle twice, and they beat the Tigers: that’s half their wins right there. If they lost to the 49ers twice, how do they expect to beat the Packers?

What's Up with That? The Next Welker

After last week’s preseason game against the Philadelphia Eagles, we’re already hearing that rookie Julian Edelman will become the next Wes Welker. And, why? Cause he’s a small white dude who can catch. What’s up with that? Just cause he’s sub-6’0” with great hands and crazy speed doesn’t make him a clone of Wes! Well, actually, there’s a lot more to the comparison than that.

Size:
Welker—5’9”
Edelman—5’10”
Race:
Welker—white
Edelman—white
Primary position:
Welker—WR
Edelman—WR
Returner:
Welker—holds NCAA record for most punts returned for TDs
Edelman—returned a punt 75 yards for TD in his preseason debut with the Pats
Versatility:
Welker—second player in NFL history to return a punt and kickoff, kick and extra point and field goal, and make a tackle in one game
Edelman—3-year starter at D-I school, Kent St., as a quarterback!
Usage:
Welker—short routes, great on third down
Edelman—use his speed and quickness to beat coverage down low
Weakness:
Welker—too small to be used on deep routes
Edelman—ditto
Doubted:
Welker—went undrafted in 2004 NFL Draft
Edelman—not even invited to NFL Combine this year

So what’s up with these unwarranted comparisons? Well, they’re pretty justified, actually.

No Vick, No Problem

Well, it is over. No, Mike Vick hasn't signed with a team or anything, but in the Patriots' eyes, it's over. Saturday, Rob Kraft ruled out the possibility of the team signing Vick, a possibility the whole nation speculated the Pats would do. Despite alleged "Vick spottings" late in the week, Kraft said on Sirius Sattelite Radio saturday, "For us, that’s an academic problem because we’ve got the number one player in the world at that position, as far as I’m concerned. Why would we want do anything that would take (quarterback Tom Brady) off the field for one play?" So New England PETA members can calm down now, Vick will not be coming to New England.

Training Camp Update: Bill Belichick has definitely made the opening days of training camp hard, as he scheduled Two-a-Days for the whole first week of training camp. But the players aren't complaining. They know it is important for later in the year, and it only makes them stronger. Rookie Darius Butler has lined up in the #2 CB spot here and there for a couple practices. The secondary seems to have jumped up from 2008. Brandon Merriweather is making good plays, along with 2nd year CB Terrence Wheatley. 2009 Draft picks Chung and Butler have also looked sharp. As far as I can see, OLB Adalius Thomas has been the best player in training camp thus far, making unbelivable plays and being smart. Granted, it's only training camp, but look for Thomas to have a breakout '09.

The Future of Matt Cassel

Before I start, I'd like to point out the striking resemblance between Matt Cassel and Thayer Academy's own Sean Fernald. Now, here I go.

Last year, we thought Matt Cassel showed that he deserved a starting QB job in the NFL. When reigning MVP Tom Brady went down with a knee injury in the season opener, Cassel led the Patriots to a more-than-respectable 11-5 record. The Patriots went on to give Cassel the most expensive one-year contract for an offensive player in NFL history, and then trade him to the Kansas City Chiefs for a second round draft pick. But this year, I think Cassel will show that Tom Brady may very well have the easiest job in the NFL.

We were shocked when Cassel, the supposed breakout player of the year, was traded to the Chiefs along with Pro Bowl linebacker Mike Vrabel for a measly second round draft pick. Some passed off the seemingly one-sided trade by claiming the Pats were cutting their former GM Scott Pioli—now Kansas City GM—a little slack, knowing that he had very little to give the Patriots in return. Others pointed to the fact that Belichick prefers second-round picks because he can sidestep having to pay the enormous contract that first rounders are accustomed to getting. But really, it was because Matt Cassel simply isn’t worth much more than a second round draft pick.

Matt Cassel was drafted in the seventh round by the Pats in 2005 for a reason: USC coach Pete Carroll didn’t start Cassel for a single game during his four-year career in Southern Cal. Cassel didn’t get to start any games during his college career for a reason: he is a mediocre quarterback. The numbers he put up during his 2008 campaign were not all that special. What got him so much attention was that no one expected the Patriots to do well at all without their superstar quarterback. Cassel’s 89.4 QB rating was good enough for tenth in the league, behind, among others, Matt Schaub of the Texans, Aaron Rodgers of the Packers, and Jeff Garcia of the Buccaneers. I don’t see teams licking their lips trying to sign 39 year-old Garcia to a $14 million, 1-year contract. Matt Cassel is a great story for sure. Having not started a single game since high school, he started all but one game for the Patriots, en route to a quality season. But how much of the team’s success was due to Cassel has been hugely over exaggerated.

The Patriots have the most QB-friendly team in the NFL; just about quarterback could find success with the New England O-line, WR corps, and passing game strategy. Three Patriots offensive linemen made the 2008 Pro Bowl, including two starters: Matt Light and Logan Mankins. No other team had more than one O-lineman make the roster. This brick wall of Pro-Bowlers gave Matt Cassel ample time in the pocket to find a wide receiver, one of whom is bound to get open at some point. Randy Moss is perhaps the best deep threat WR in the NFL. The fact that he drew a double team on almost every play created dream jobs for Wes Welker and Jabar Gaffney, who seemed to always be open. Finally, the New England-style offense boils the passing game down to mostly short 7 or 8-yard passes—a high percentage game for any QB. This simple, yet effective passing strategy, combined with the above-average defense and rushing attack, the legendary O-line, and arguably the best coach in all sports today are responsible for the Pats’ 11-5 season—not Matt Cassel.

Next year, Cassel will play for the Chiefs and will find that not all teams are as easy to play for as the Patriots. Last year, Kansas City finished with a 2-14 record, and only four teams scored fewer points. Their WR corps is among the worst in the league: last year, only two players had more than 400 receiving yards—one was Tony Gonzalez, whom they proceeded to trade to the Atlanta Falcons. So Cassel will be forced to rely almost exclusively on one receiver, third year starter Dwayne Bowe out of Louisiana State. Another obstacle Cassel will encounter is an average offensive line. The Chiefs do have Pro Bowl guard Brian Waters, but, after Cassel’s time in New England, the pass rush will seem to be on top of him before he can even catch a glimpse of his wide receivers getting owned by opposing backfields. Last year, the Tyler Thigpen was the Chief’s QB, and he failed to throw for more than 2,750 yards over the course of the season, good enough for a 76.0 passer rating.

Here’s what I see happening this year: Cassel will be the starter in week 1, continue to start until mid-season, where he will have completed no more than 60% of his passes, and Larry Johnson will have been the chief (no pun intended) producer on offense. When KC continues to struggle, Cassel will start to share time with former Alabama-star Brodie Croyle. Kansas City will finish the season 5-11, and Cassel will go on to sign with a team desperate for a QB and hopeful that Cassel will miraculously reproduce his 2008-2009 season with New England, which he owes entirely to his supporting cast.

Minicamp: Friday, June 13, 2009

Just thought I would let you now that Friday's minicamp practice was cancelled, due to weather. Training Camp starts July 30th, so all we can do now is look forward to a hard-hitting, intense Patriots training camp. The players will spend time with their families and work out, staying in peak NFL condition (yes, that includes you, Vince Wilfork), until that day.

Rex Ryan vs. Bill Belichick

Rex Ryan, newly hired coach of the New York Jets, has recently made remarks that have ignited a new fire in the Patriots-Jets rivalry. He recently said, "I didn't come [to New York] to kiss Belichick's rings." He continued, "Do I recognize the fact that Belichick is a heck of a coach? Absolutely. My thing is, I'm not intimidated by him or anyone else in this business. Period. I don't care who it is. Our football team certainly isn't going to be intimidated either. If there are some issues with that, so be it." In typical Bill Belichick fashion, Bill replied matter-of-factly, "It doesn't matter, I'm just trying to get ready to play, and that's it." To me, this war means absolutely nothing. As usual, the Pats will stomp over the Jets twice in the upcoming season. Once the Jets win a playoff game against us, they have no credibility. Yeah, they beat us in OT last year, and yeah it was at Gillette. But seriously, they had Brett Favre, and we did not have our best player, Tom Brady. I am not here to make excuses for that loss, but seriously, the Pats have taken the last 13 of 17 against the Jets, and to me this is not a true rivalry. I would much rather watch the Pats battle the Colts or Steelers, because those are competitive games filled the brim with intensity, and since these teams are always vying for a playoff bid, they have real significance. Even though the Jets are in our division, and we fight them for the division title, a Patriot-Jet matchup just isn't as appealing as a Brady-Manning (Colts or Giants) contest. All things considered, New England probably never play the Jets in the playoffs. Either New England or New York will make the playoffs, not both. The chances that the AFC East will produce two playoff teams this year is unlikely. Top-heavy divisions like the AFC South (Colts, Titans) or AFC North (Steelers, Ravens) will take the Wild Card playoff spots. Thus, when the accomplished team of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick go up against rookie QB Mark Sanchez and first-year head coach Rex Ryan in week 2, I'll be watching the Detroit Lions pick up their first win in over a year, as they face the Minnesota Vikings.

I want a lot of discussion about this topic, so when you read this, please leave your thoughts (not a paragragh).

Minicamp: Thursday, June 11, 2009

Day 2 of 2009 Mini-camp has ended, and the story that had the media buzzing was veteran CB (first-year Patriot) Shawn Springs. To the wonder of the media, Shawn is a diligent note-taker--the Curt Schilling of the NFL, if you will. It takes more than just freakish athleticism in the NFL, you need to have your head on your shoulders and be a smart player. You're bound to lose the hop in your step that you had coming out of college, when you play your 13th pro football season, like Springs intends on doing this year. When asked about star WR and how the competition would be against him, Springs replied saying that he wouldn't know what to do even if "I could bring a notebook this thick on him," as he manipulated his fingers about 2 inches apart. When inquired further upon it, Springs added that he had been taking notes on star wideouts since high school. He kept explaing, "Man, these guys are too good to go out there and not know them, so, when I played Randy [Moss], I had a game plan against him. Whether it’s Marvin Harrison, or going way back to Jimmy Smith, or Chad Johnson. I’m a big note taker." This is oviously good news for Patriots fans, as this shows Springs' commitment to having a great year.

Another harbinger of light coming out of Foxborough on Thursday was about the progress of the tight ends (no, not Giselle Bundchen). Although Ben Watson and David Thomas are the projected starters, this year's training camp foretells an epic position battle, as veterans Chris Baker (from Jets) and Alex Smith (from Bucaneers) may be left out of a starting job. However, when asked about the competition, Smith held his head up, "Competition brings out the best in everybody. You never want to be scared of competition. When you see everybody else making plays, you want to step your game up as well. It makes it tough, but it makes me want to stay out here even more." We saw the benefits of an open competition for a given position last year, when Joe Flacco beat out two former first round draft picks, Troy Smith and Kyle Boller, for the Ravens' starting QB job, and went on to lead Baltimore to the playoffs. Look for a breakout year for whatever Pats TE gets the job, since he will always have another biting at his heels for a chance to take his spot.

First-string running back Sammy Morris arrived at camp today, a day late.

Minicamp: Wednesday, June 10, 2009

The first day of the Patriots' 2009 mini-camp has concluded, and there was a pleasant surprise, as Vince Wilfork, DT, finally showed up for the mandatory minicamp. He had skipped out on all of the previous Organized Team Activities because of contract disputes, now arriving late for training camp, pulling what I like to call "a Manny". Wilfork knows his duty to his team, as he stated on Wednesday, "Right now, the smart thing thing is to be here, playing football, what I do best...At the end of the day, I’m still a Patriot, and I want to be a Patriot. I’m looking forward to a great camp and to a great season. Hopefully we can move forward from here." Obviously, the pro bowl DT has true Patriot Pride, as he grinds out his final contract negotiations. I'm happy to see Wilfork sticking with the Pats, unlike former Super Bowl winners who deserted New England for the big bucks of free agency, such as Asante Samuel, Adam Vinatierri, and Deion Branch.

Also, the Patriots' special teams are looking sharp--well, at least the punters and kickers. First year punter Tom Malone has shown significant improvement from the beginning of OTA's. Also, fourth-year kicker Stephen Gostkoski has been impressing coaches. During the 2-minute drill, he and his unit rushed onto the field and promptly nailed a 60-yarder.

Overall, the team is heading in the right direction, and if this continues, look for a very successful 2009-2010 Patriots' campaign. Missing fom Wednesday's practice were: WRs Tyree Barnes, Shaun White, and Brandon Tate; DB Brandon Meriweather; RB Sammy Morris; CB Mike Richardson; WR/DB Ray Ventrone; safety Brandon McGowan; LBs Jerod Mayo and Tyrone McKenzie; OL Mark LeVoir; DLs Ty Warren and Jarvis Green.

Pats Minicamp

Minicamp: ironic that it is called "mini" because it truly plays a huge role in the success or failure of a professional team. Here, rookies learn the playbook and veterans scrap their rust. Since no contact is allowed, players can start to learn the system and execute plays without risking their bodies. Well, Organized Team Activities have crept up on us, and along with it, the June 10-12 minicamp.
Tom Brady has returned, bringing excitement and a feeling of expectancy none have felt since the release of the final Harry Potter. Matt Light showed that it's not just the fans who are excited when he told reporters, "We went to the charity golf tournament yesterday and a lot of the sponsors were telling us they’re ampped up for the guys we have here and the guys we brought in. It’s exciting as always. It’s the start of a new season. The new guys, and now getting a chance to install the new offense to see what these guys can do. I think it’ll be a lot of fun." This only shows his excitement and anxiousness to getting to the start of the new season.
The team has showed crispness and sharpness throughout the various OTA's, and we can only hope this will continue in minicamp and ultimately through the season. I will bring you updates from every practice through minicamp.

Yes, Could You Please Have Our Butler Serve Ron a Hot Plate of Patrick Chung?

Although the Patriots, as usual, traded down (out of the first round) in the 2009 NFL Draft, they were able to pick up 3 great players in the second round: Patrick Chung with the 34th pick, Ron Brace with the 40th overall, and Darius Butler with the 41st pick overall. First, Patrick Chung. He was born in Kingston, Jamaica, and played safety at Oregon. He was known for his hard hits, and has been told that he plays like the Patriots Pro Bowl veteran, Rodney Harrison. With Harrison probably retiring, and safety James Sanders under-producing, Chung is just what Dr. Belichick ordered. He brings great football IQ and a great work ethic, two qualities Bill values most.
Next, big-boy Brace. Brace is listed at a tiny 6'3", 330 lbs. Hard to believe we even need a defensive linemen, with Vince Wilfork at his prime, and our scheme of a 3-4 defense. However, I do realize the importance of a backup for our big DL. Also, Wilfork's contract is up after the 2009 season, so it makes sense to prepare for life without Wilfork, who will likely be offered more money in free agency than the Pats are willing to spend. Brace brings a Wilfork-like style, a huge guy that can plug up the rushing lanes, and if Bill sees something in him, y'all better see it too.
Lastly, the flashy cornerback Darius Butler. A projected first-round talent, Butler fell right into the Pats' hands at pick 41. He is a small little ballhawk, listed at 5'10", but he sure makes up for his lack of size with his athleticism. There must be something in his blood, too: his uncle Gene Atkins was a great defensive back for nine seasons with the Saints and Dolphins, and his cousin Willis McGahee is a Pro Bowl running back for the Ravens. At UCONN, Butler was a premier cornerback in the Big East, while also getting some playing time at WR. As if that's not enough, the full-time kick returner at UCONN could be the next Bethel Johnson.

Even with zero first-round picks, Belichick pulled away from the 2009 draft with several valuable players, all the while managing to secure three more second round picks for the 2010 Draft. While these rookies may not as productive as, say, Jerod Mayo, these new batch of rookies will surely help the Pats, maybe even leading them to a Super Bowl XLIV victory...

Could the Patriots Be Vick's Next Vick-tim?

With the release of Michael Vick from prison, questions have arisen about his NFL future. These topics are simply too pressing not to consider, and one Patriots fan can not help but to speculate how well Vick may or may not fit in with Patriots. Personally I think he would not completely ruin the dynasty. Belichick has done this before, drafting a player with off-the-field issues, or signing a disgruntled free agent. Just look at one example: Randy Moss. Moss has found himself in trouble with both the NFL--by pretending to moon Green Bay fans during a touchdown celebration in 2005, which cost him $10,000--,and in the court of law--in 2002 he was arrested for violating traffic laws and for possession of marajuana, which cost him $1,200 and 40 hours of community service. Then, with the Raiders, Moss showed reluctance to even suit up for games, dreading playing on a losing team in Oakland. And as you can see, he brought the franchise down with him. The Raiders went 6-28 over two seasons with Moss. But this was not a big deal for Bill Belichick. He could see the talent beyond the personality issues, something not many in the league could do. And it sure paid off; just look at the results: Moss set the single-season TD receptions record his first year with the Pats, helping them go undefeated in the regular season. While I'm not saying Vick will produce those types of numbers, I am saying that if Bill sees something in Vick he likes, we will sign him. Just picture it now: Vick in the shotgun with Julian Edelman to his side, running the Wildcat. That would almost be unstoppable. Take Brady out of the game every once in a while, make sure he stays fresh and healthy. And if for some reason Brady's knee is still bothering him, or he suffers another freak injury, or just underperforms (ya, right), the Pats need a good backup, now that Matt Cassel has been traded to the Kansas City Chiefs. Vick, in all likelihood, is desperate for a job in the NFL, and Rob Kraft is a master of signing for cheap money. Although some Pats fans may hate it, don't count anything it out. I still see it is an oh-so-slight possibility.

Wildcat: A Possibility For the Patriots Offense?

Well, the draft of 2009 has come and gone, rolling through Radio City Music like a hurricane. And, in typical fashion, the Patriots dominated the draft. However, the Pats' most intriguing draft day move was not trading away several of their their early-round picks, or the 3rd round pick of North Carolina WR Brandon Tate, who will be out for 2009 with both a torn ACl and MCL. No, it was the pick of Kent State WR/QB Julian Edelman in the 7th round. His well-roundedness makes him a great candidate for the wildcat offense. The Dolphins wreaked havoc with their introduction of the wildcat offense last year; and since then, teams are starting looking for QB's with more than just QB skills. Pat White out of West Virginia perhaps is the best example of this, who was drafted in the 2nd round by none other than the Miami Dolphins. He can run (he set the record for most yards run by an NCAA quarterback), he can throw (second all-time in WVU total completions), and although he only worked out as a QB at the Combine in February, he can catch, too. Although he was a late-round pick, Edelman can bring variety and explosiveness to the Pats offense. And when asked about him, Belichick stated, "Edelman is a very good runner and we see him as a player who has some versatility, probably as a receiver, maybe a running back." The draft of Edelman foreshadows an onset of some sort of new style of offense (wildcat?) for the Patriots in 2010.