One More 2010 Red Sox Preview

I have a problem with what the Red Sox have done this offseason. I know what they’re trying to do, but I don’t agree with it. Theo has crafted one of the deepest rosters in the MLB, but he doesn’t have the star power that championship teams must have—especially at the plate. Look at the World Series teams last year and they’re dangerous bats. The Yankees had A-Rod, Teixeira, and Jeter who can all harm you at any point in the game. The Phillies had J-Roll, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Shane Victorino, and Jayson Werth.

We have three proven outfielders in Ellsbury, Cameron, and Drew. With this threesome, you know what you’re going to get: overall, they’re above-average defensively: Ellsbury and Cameron are definite Gold Glove candidates (Cameron already has three in his career). But no one will blow you away at the plate. They’re all decent hitters: together have a career batting average of .277 and 16 HR per year, which is okay, but it won’t win any championships. In the infield, it’s the same story: tons of depth, above-average defense, with mediocre bats. Between Adrian Beltre/Mike Lowell, Marco Scutaro, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and Victor Martinez there are ten .300 seasons, two 30 HR seasons, and seven seasons of .500 SLG%. In the Bronx, between A-Rod, Jeter, Cano, Teixeira, and Posada, there are twenty-seven .300 seasons, twenty 30-HR seasons, and twenty-six seasons of .500SLG %. The Yanks probably even have the edge defensively: going around the infield, Beltre>A-Rod, Jeter> Scutaro, Cano = Pedroia, Teixeira>Youkilis, Posada = Marinez. We might have a little more depth with Lowie, Lowell, and Varitek as backups, but ten out of ten people would rather have the Yankee lineup at the four infield positions.

The star power that a team needs to make a long playoff run simply does not exist on the Red Sox lineup. If there’s ever an injury, I’m more comfortable with the Red Sox bench players; if both teams stay healthy, though, there’s no question as to which team is better. I’ve already said that the Sox have the best starting rotation in the MLB, and that still stands. I believe Buchholz and Matsuzaka have the potential to be shut-down starters, and if they play up what they’re capable of, we could be looking at one of the best starting rotations in the history of baseball. Nevertheless, I don’t necessarily feel comfortable with the 2010 Red Sox roster as it stands today.

Red Sox Offseason

SIGN
Mike Cameron -37 years old
-Never hit better than .275
-7 for 10 stealing in 2009 (fewest steals in 13 year career)
-Hit 20+ HR last 4 years
-Played 140+ games 10 of past 12 years, low injury risk
-2 Golden Gloves, 1 All-Star
-Against Yankees: .236 BA

Jeremy Hermida-26 years old
- Strong rookie season (.296 BA, .870 OPS)
-Benched in September for rookie Cameron Maybin
-.189 batting against lefties (.282 against righties) in ‘09
-1st round pick of 2002 draft
- 0 Gold Gloves, 0 All-Stars
-Against Yankees: 4-18, 5 SO

Marco Scutaro-34 years old
-Career year last year (.282 BA, .378 OBP, 1.2 BB: SO ratio)
-No power (50 HR in 840 game career, career .384 SLG)
-Solid fielder, can play virtually any position on the field
-6 year veteran (all in AL)
-0 Gold Gloves, 0 All-Star
-Against Yankees: .242 BA

LOSE
Jason Bay-32 years old
-100 RBI, 30HR 4 of 6 years in MLB
-Rookie of the Year in 2004
-3rd in HR, 2nd in RBI, Silver Slugger in 2009
-Accounted for 25% of runs scored by Red Sox in 2009
-Played 145+ in 5 of 6 years in MLB (162 in ’05)
-0 Gold Gloves, 3 All-Stars
- Against Yankees: .324 BA, .559 SLG

You do the math. Alex Gonzalez is gone, but Scutaro is a competent replacement. Let's face it, Gonzo may have been the fan favorite and we all wanted to see him stay, but Scutaro is just as good, and younger. We signed him for two years, with an option for the third year. Don't forget about Lowry either. If he stays healthy, he's a good person to have waiting in the wings. But then there's Jason Bay. Bay probably didn't add so much defense for the Red Sox in '09, but there's no way the outfield we have ligned up now (Ellsbury, Drew, Cameron/Hermida) will be able to replace what Bay meant for this offense--especially if Ortiz has another down year. Bay averages 33 HR and 107 RBI a year. Last year, no one else on the Sox had either 33 HR or 100 RBI.

The addition of John Lackey makes the Sox rotation more dangerous than any other in Major League baseball. We have three shut-down starters, there's no doubt about that. But our lineup really has virtually no power threats, and one or two solid bats: Youkilis, Pedroia, and maybe Papi. The Yankees have A-Rod, Jeter, Texeira, as well as Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano, as well as two Cy-Young candidates in Sabathia and Burnett. For the Sox lineup, Ellsbury will continue to pose a threat on the basepaths, but his .350 OBP won't cut it as a leadoff hitter. Lowell is question mark: he could have a great offensive year, but I doubt his ability to touch his toes anymore. He's the oldest 35 year-old I've ever seen, and is one-year removed from a major hip surgery. The fact that Boston brass tried to get rid of once this offseason (trade to Rangers was called off after his physical) tells you the Red Sox doubt his potential to for another .290 season., a BA only four Red Sox topped last season. Pedroia, Youkilis, and Martinez will have solid years, but don't be surprised if their numbers dip a little with the loss of Bay's protection in the lineup. Like it or not, J.D. will continue to be J.D. He'll bat around .265 with tons of walks and tons of strikeouts, but don't expect anything more.

The Yankees didn't make any big splashes this offseason, but they didn't need to. They won the World Series last year and have virtually the same roster. Yeah, they'll probably end up losing Damon, but he's past his prime anyway. Plus the Steinbrenners will probably end up signing Mark DeRosa or some other bat that can at least replace Damon. They made a couple minor moves, like sending Melky Cabrera to the Braves for pitcher Javier Vasquez, which will probably put Joba back in the 'pen with some scrub named Mariano Rivera.

Fighting Out of the Red Corner...

In Tuesday’s matchup against the Detroit Tigers, Kevin Youkilis was hit by a pitch in the second inning, and proceeded to charge the mound. There’s debate as to whether the ensuing brawl energized the Boston clubhouse or was just selfish behavior on the part of Youkilis. If it did indeed energize the Red Sox, they did not pay close attention to the fight. If anything, it should have humiliated the club to the point where they are ashamed to stay in the batter’s box. Youkilis is a 220 lb. beast—monster go-tee, shaved head, and the body of a Viking warrior. The head-hunting pitcher, Rick Porcello, on the other hand is a 200 lb. scarecrow—a 20 year-old rookie with the body of a fashion designer. Now let’s think about this. If these two squared off in the octagon, Youkilis would compete as a Heavyweight, the same weight class as juiced-up giant Brock Lesnar; whereas Porcello would fight in the smaller Light Heavyweight division. Since MLB owns the rights to the film, I’ll recap how the showdown went down.

Youkilis gets hit in the back, charges the mound, throws his batting helmet at Porcello (which is a dead givaway he has no idea what he's doing), and instead of throwing a punch at Porcello like any decent fighter would do, he opts to tackle Porcello, if you could call it that. Porcello doesn’t even know what’s going on, and throws his hands in the air like a spoiled hockey player getting called for a penalty. Then Youkilis wraps his arms around the Tigers rookie as if he were giving him a goodbye hug, not trying to tackle him to the ground. Don’t forget, Youkilis is trying to make a statement here: don’t mess with the Boston Red Sox, or you’ll be sorry. However, the statement he ended up making was more like: we’re pussies and don’t know how to defend ourselves. Porcello, who I must say is as lanky as lanky can be, basically throws Youkilis off him and lands on top of him, pinning him to the infield grass. If he wanted, Ricky Porcello could have started throwing wild punches at our All-Star hitter; luckily for Youkilis, Tigers and Red Sox alike just started piling on top of each other instead of letting the two go at it. There’s no doubt about this one. By unanimous decision, the fight goes to Rick Porcello.

Both players ended up getting suspended for five games by Major League Baseball after the bench-clearing brawl. I think professional sports should adopt the punishment system of Midway Sport’s NHL Hitz: the loser of the fight gets handed a huge penalty, but the winner essentially gets off the hook. In this case, I would suspend Youkilis for ten games for making a fool of himself and all who support the Red Sox, and fine Porcello a few thousand dollars.

Why the Sox are Slumping

Since the All Star Break, the Red Sox have gone from leading the AL East by 3.0 games, to being down 6.5 to the dreaded Spankees. Let's take a look at why:

1. Jason Varitek has had one multi-hit game in his past 23 games. I know he’s not an offensive catcher, but come on. Plus, he throws out a humiliating 15.1% of basestealers, which is last in the Majors, and way below the MLB average of 25.3%.
2. They’re on a stretch of 24 days, playing 23 games. They need a rest. Coming off days of rest, the Red Sox are 11-2 this season. Off days are turning us on.
3. Mike Lowell can’t field—he’s below the MLB median in assists, range factor, and fielding percentage. I can’t tell you how many plays I’ve seen him fail to execute because he moves like an old man. Sure, he can still make routine plays, but diving catches and off-balance throws are out of the question. He’s 35, coming off offseason hip surgery and is the oldest position player on the roster. You know, steroids are being called the fountain of youth, keeping muscles and joints young and healthy…maybe Lowell should have hopped on that bandwagon awhile ago.
4. Big Papi can’t hit. In the past 30 days, he has the third worst slugging percentage of all DHs. He can’t hit, he can’t field. But he’s good in the clutch, right? In late and close games (7th inning or later, with his team tied, ahead by one run, or with the tying at least on deck) his BA is .167 with a .250 SLG. Not really that good in the clutch. If I see Ortiz starting over Kotchman, Lowell, or V-Mart, I’m going to blow a fuse.
5. Jason Bay had 5 RBI in July, with a .295 SLG and .192 BA. Had more strikeouts than total bases. We had come to rely too much on our left-fielder, and he may have felt pressure to play while hurt with an apparent hamstring injury. Six days of rest in seven games this month have done him well. He has as many total bases in seven games as he did the entire month of July.
6. The only thing John Smoltz did effectively was wear out the bullpen. He never pitched more than six innings in eight starts, and in his final four starts, he gave up 35 hits. Everyone wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt, but when the Sox lost their sixth game started by Smoltz, they designated him for assignment. That was a waste of $5.5 million.

Give Varitek a Break

To all you Varitek-bashers out there, chill out. Don’t jump to conclusions and ask for his demotion to Pawtucket, don’t yell and scream and plead for V-Mart to become out permanent backstop. Here’s why: Varitek ranks 12th in AL with 64 hits and 5th in the Majors with 13 HR, among catchers. His .229 average is what sets lots of people off. Compared to a deep Red Sox lineup everywhere else, he is a poor hitter--his average is almost 40 points below the team average. However, that’s the case in most clubhouses these days. Catching is the most physically demanding position in all of baseball, and those who play it are no longer the offensive threats they used to be. The days of Mike Piazza and Pudge and Sandy Alomar are over. We’re in the age of the Russell Martins, Dioner Navarros, and Geovany Sotos—catchers who can call a great game, allow few past balls, and have great baseball IQs. They’re main role on the team is to help the pitching staff feel comfortable and play smart, with offense swirling around in the back of their minds. And as far as that all goes, Varitek is as good as it gets. He’s caught more no-hitters (4) than any other catcher in Major League history, has helped Sox farmhands Lester, Buchholz, and Papelbon transition to the Big Leagues fluidly, and his unparalleled leadership often goes unnoticed—he is the team captain, after all. To understand how catching has changed from a hitter’s position to a thinking game, here are some stats.
This year, seven catchers have batting averages over .275. In 2006, that number was eighteen. In 2003, ten. 2000: fifteen. 1997: twelve. So ease up on Varitek, and let him bat in the 8th spot, maintain a low BA and drive in a run every once in a while. It's been 67 years since a catcher has won the batting title (Ernie Lombardi of the Braves did so in 1942). It’s not in a catcher’s job description to bat .320 with 45 HR anymore.

P.S. As far as Varitek’s contract goes, he has a dual-option next year. He has a club option for $5 million, and a player option for $3 million. Depending on how the Victor Martinez experiment goes, I don’t think Theo will pick up the club option, but I do believe ‘Tek will take the $3 million player option and finish his career with the Sox after the 2010 season.

Newbies

In his first night in a Boston uniform last night, Victor Martinez went a less-than-impressive 1-5. When he went 1-5 on June 19, he followed it up with a dismal streak of 0-15 through 4 games. Not this time, though. Today against the Orioles he got a season-high 5 hits, going 5-6 with 4 RBI (also a season-high). It's nice to see V-Mart bounce back like he did today; he also got to see a variety of Boston pitchers in his first game behind the plate, as Clay Buchholz, Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez, and Takashi Saito all got to the mound today.

Newcomer Josh Reddick has also looked impressive in his first two Major League starts. Yesterday, he became the first Red Sox rookie in over twenty years to hit two extra-base knocks in his first Major League start, and today, he hit his first Major League homerun. I love seeing the young guys, so if J.D. and Bay continue to struggle I'd love to see more of this 22 year-old, who just gives more depth to this Red Sox staff. On soxprospects.com, he's the #2 prospect for the Red Sox, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him optioned back down to double or triple-A in the coming weeks, but when the roster expands to 40 guys on September 1st, we could be seeing deja-vu of the 2007 season, when Jacoby Ellsbury debuted for the Sox and gave them a push through the postseason.

Kasey Kotchman also got some playing time today, his first game with the Red Sox. He did not start, but came in late in the game to hit for Lowell. He went 0-1, but I'm sure Lowell was happy to get the start, go 3-5, and come out early to hit the showers--or whatever old men do after a day's work.

$100 Million Not-So-Well-Spent

Last Friday, the Red Sox moved Daisuke Matsuzaka from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL. This means he’ll start rehabbing with Pawtucket in two months, at the end of September. Oh, wait, scratch that—Pawtucket’s season ends September 7th. The chances of seeing Daisuke pitch in October for the Red Sox? Well, not so good. Looks like we’ve seen the end of Daisuke this season.

Trade Deadline 2009

This is my first ever in-game blog, and I’ll use a play that happened just moments ago in the Sox-O’s game to explain why the Red Sox acquired Casey Kotchman and Victor Martinez, despite already having an All-Star –laden group of infielders.

Matt Wieters on second, Brian Roberts hits a grounder to the backhand of shortstop Nick Green. Not having the best throwing arm, Green decides against making a Jeter-esque jumping toss to get the speedy Roberts at first base. Instead, he opts to make the quick throw to Mike Lowell covering 3rd base so that he can lay down the tag and get the runner trying to advance on a non-force out. 35-year-old Lowell hobbles to the bag so Green can throw him the ball from maybe thirty away. Green throws it low, but not really to either side of the 3rd baseman, who underwent offseason hip surgery. Low is generally a good place to throw the ball when trying to tag out a runner, but not today. It was painful watching Lowell barely to bend his knees, and attempt to make a shoestring catch without moving a single one of the fragile joints in his body. The ball rolled past Lowell, allowing Weiters to not only advance to third, but to score the tying run as the ball went out-of-play into the Sox dugout. The next batter comes to the plate with a runner on second and one out, instead of a runner on first with two outs. With such a favorable situation, he hits a two-run homer that puts Baltimore up by two runs.

So what did this play tell us? Mike Lowell is far from Gold Glove 3rd baseman he was in ’05. We need someone to man the hot corner and give Lowell a rest a few times a week. Who can we put at third? We have Youk, but he’s an excellent defensive 1st baseman, and only a decent fielder at 3rd. So we look to acquire one via trade who can play good defense, all the while able to create runs at the plate. Since there’s no one available, we’re forced to move Youkilis to 3rd base. Adam LaRoche was our original replacement 1st baseman, but his strength is really on offense, rather than on defense. Since we lost some fielding ability by moving Youk away from 1st base, so LaRoche wasn’t the perfect fit. So Theo went to the Braves to trade LaRoche (5-19, 1 HR, 3 RBI in 6 games with the Red Sox) for defensive-minded Casey Kotchman. So here’s the breakdown again: lose defense at first by moving Youkilis to third, but get more offense at third from Youk than from Lowell; get offense with LaRoche, but Theo sees the need for more defense in the infield; gets Kotchman, despite sacrificing a little at the plate.

What about Victory Martinez? Jason Varitek is undoubtedly feeling the wear and tear of his 12-year catching career. His knees, ankles, and shoulder are as beat up as they can be before landing on the DL. His 78 AB in May have decreased in June, and again in July, where he will probably end up seeing close to 62 AB. With all due respect to George Kottaras, he doesn’t belong in a Red Sox uniform; he’s just not good enough. V-Mart will be able to take some pressure off Varitek and his knees, and Tito won’t hesitate to throw him behind the plate because he’s such an offensive force. Plus, he can also play 1st base or DH, offering Papi and Youk/Kotchman the day off. It’s amazing how much flexibility Terry Francona has, lining up his infield. Lowell, Youkilis, Green, Lowrie, Pedroia, Kotchman, Martinez, and Varitek can all play interchangeably. If one needs a rest, or can’t hit righties, Francona won’t have to think twice about giving him the day off; they can all replace each other without the team missing a beat.

However, what is most intriguing about the Martinez deal is how little the Theo ended up giving Cleveland. We kept Buchholz, Bard, and our main pitching prospects of Michael Bowden and Junichi Tazawa, as well as hitting phenom Ryan Westmoreland. We traded middle reliever Justin Masterson, and 1st round draft picks of the 2007 and 2008 Drafts, LHP Nick Hagadone and RHP Bryan Price.

What’d the Yankees do? Roy Halladay? No. Jarrod Washburn? Guess again. Jerry Hairston Jr. is who the Yanks got today. In his 2009 season with the Reds, he was batting a whopping .254 with 8 HR. Whoop dee doo. He’s more of a utility guy, and the Red Sox need not worry about him at all. It was a good day.

Stat of the Day: In the Field

People point to a poor back of the rotation, untimely hitting, and lack of offense when they look at the Red Sox' woes. But what about defense? In terms of errors and fielding percentage, the Sox are middle of the pack, 15th and 18th respectively. But they have turned the second fewest double plays, and have allowed the most steals in the Majors, and have the lowest DER of any team. "DER" is an interesting stat I looked up, and it stands for Defense Efficiency Ratio, and it equals the percent of batted balls that are turned into outs by a defense. Boston's .689 DER means that only 68.9% of any ball put in play will become an out. A low DER like this typically means that our pitching staff relies too heavily on the strikeout and don't give their fielders a chance to make a play. Not surprisingly, the Sox have the most strikeouts in the AL. Pitchers should be making it a priority to keep their fielders on their toes by making a pitch not that is nit so good it cannot be hit and risk walking too many batters, but a pitch that's bad enough to be hit, but good enough to not be hit well. Look at Derek Lowe's no hitter of 2002: only 6 strikeouts. It's not about striking batters out, it's about recording outs, however that can be done. This seems like the first year where the Red Sox don't really have any defensive specialists--a David Roberts, Alex Cora, Gabe Kapler, or Doug Menkevich-type player.

What the Red Sox Need to Do At the Deadline

What the Red Sox don't need to do is go after Roy Halladay. The Jays are asking for basically our whole farm system to get Halladay for the year and two months left on his contract. As great as Halladay is, I don't think it's worth it. As a team, Red Sox pitching is best in the AL East, and 8th best overall. Smoltz is bound to find his groove one of these days, Daisuke could come back rested in September, Wakefield will soon be off the DL, and Buchholz will continue to settle in. Pitching isn't really our greatest need right now. Furthermore, over his career, Halladay has only a .613 win percentage after the break, compared to a .710 before. Also, Fenway Park is one of only two stadiums at which Halladay has a losing record (5-8)*, and is the only place he has allowed more than 10 HR (15). I don't see Halladay carrying the Sox to the World Series.

Who the Red Sox should continue to pursue is Adrian Gonzalez of the San Diego Padres. Boston only has one player with 20+ HR this year, Jason Bay, while other World Series hopefuls like the Phillies have four. Adrian Gonzalez is this year's Mark Teixera: a good defensive first basemen with the power to hit one deep at any point in the game. With Lowell struggling, Youk could take some load off and play more games at third, leaving first base open for Adrian Gonzalez. Lars Anderson, a top prospect for the Sox, should be included in the deal because, with Gonzalez locked up for the next couple years, Boston could get away with trading this Minor League slugger.

With Pittsburgh's Jack Wilson getting dealt to Seattle in a 7-man trade this afternoon, the market for shortstops is meager. It looks like Nick Green and Jed Lowrie will have to step up their game for the remainder of the season, and be the 10the tenth man who steps up as the season draws to an end.

I can't think of a much better acquisition than Victor Martinez. This great offensive-minded catcher from the Cleveland Indians could take the place of George Kottaras as the backup for Jason Varitek. Kottaras is a non-threat at the plate, and is on the roster simply because he can catch Tim Wakefield. We're seeing more of Kottaras recently, and it seems like Varitek's 37 year-old body isn't up to the task of catching every day. Since 2003, Martinez is the only catcher to rank in the top three in BA, HR, RBI, and TB among catchers.

*mimimum of 2 starts

Stat of the Day: Dan Bard

In rookie Dan Bard's 23 appearances this season, he has allowed an earned run in only three of them. So as you can imagine, his 2.28 ERA is somewhat misleading. In fact, if you discard one outing on June 14 against the Phillies, his ERA would be a microscopic 1.11. The Red Sox are effectively easing Bard into the big leagues: at the end of July, he'll have increased his total innings pitched by one inning each month since his debut on May 13. July has undoubtedly been his best month of the season: in 9.1 innings, he's given up no runs and surrendered only two hits, while K'ing 17 and walking zero. A 17:0 K:BB ratio is unheard of in the Majors, as is averaging 2 strikeouts per inning pitched. Plus--always an important for a reliever--he has yet to give up a HR in his big league career. Look out, Pap.

Stat of the Day: Around the MLB

Of the nine batters with the most home runs in the Major Leagues, seven play in the National League. So much for the designated hitter. In fact, Toronto’s Adam Lind has the most HR of any DH with 20—good enough to be tied for 16th in the MLB.

Only three Red Sox position players have played 80+ games this year, the fewest in the AL East; four Blue Jays have played 90+ games. Albert Pujols leads the Majors, and is the only player to have played in 92 games this season. More than anything else, this stat shows the depth of the Red Sox roster. They have the flexibility to give a player the day off, without sacrificing much on either side of the field. Whereas most teams are only comfortable starting their starters, Tito can use his backups without so much as a second thought.

Say Bye-Bye to EEI

WBCN, 104.1 The Rock of Boston will soon air only live on the internet, coming off the radio for good. Actually, if you have an HD radio receiver, you'll still be able to hear it through the radio on 98.5 HD 2. Replacing WBCN will be Mix 98.5, becoming Mix 104. Now, I don't know the logistics of changing one's frequency on the radio, but I assume 104.1's reception is somehow better than 98.5's. So what will be on 98.5? The first and only FM sports radio in Boston. CBS is launching a new FM sports radio campaign, in Boston under the title of "The Sports Hub", and will air "a wide assortment of sports talk and play-by-play programming", according to CBS. Starting August 13, it will also become the new home of the Patriots and Bruins. It will compete with the AM station WEEI, which, ironically, was owned by CBS up until 1982. It started its sports programming when it was sold to the Boston Celtics in 1991.

I like the move. FM undoubtedly gets better reception in the Boston area, and radios that broadcast on FM and AM frequencies are getting harder to find. I'll love not having to pay an extra 20 bucks for a radio that carries both broadcasting formats, just so I can get my sports radio fix.

AM radio has been around since the 1900s, and not until the 1980s did FM start being widely used, despite being patented in 1931. First it was music, then talk, now sports are all switching over to FM broadcasting. WEEI was really the only reason I ever had to turn to an AM station. Now, with FM radio being more convenient and having higher sound quality, I think sports fans will stop fiddling with their radios to switch to AM, and will instead opt to turn to FM 98.5 The Sports Hub. Unfortunately, unless Red Sox and Patriots play-by-play keeps it around, I don't think WEEI will stick around much longer.

Buchholz to Debut Friday

Boston's top pitching prospect Clay Buchholz is set to make his Red Sox 2009 debut this Friday against the Toronto Blue Jays in Toronto. Buchholz is 0-2 with a 4.22 ERA in his career against Toronto. What's the reasoning behind this decision? Read on to find out.

Last year, we saw Clay Buchholz crumble under all the media/fan hype, after his 2007 no-hitter and subsequent 3-1 record, 1.59 ERA. He was a kid, only 22 years old, and we Bostonians thought he would be the next big thing in Boston. However, in 2008, things didn't click for Buchholz. He still had good stuff—low to mid-90s fastball to go along with a devastating curve—but he struggled with his control, as he allowed .54 walks per inning, compared to .45 an inning in 2007. He gave up 11 homers in only 15 starts, and accumulated an ERA of 6.75. So this season, Theo tried to keep the Buchholz buzz to a minimum, keeping him in Triple-A until the right moment came. In Pawtucket, where he was able to avoid the spotlight, he thrived. His walks per inning dropped to .30, his ERA fell to 2.36, and his WHIP is under 1.0. Most other ballclubs would rush such a lights-out AAA pitcher into joining their 40-man roster. But the Red Sox aren’t like most ballclubs. Theo let him start 16 games in Pawtucket, and only now brings him up to start a game against the Blue Jays. In Buchholz’s one start against Toronto last year, he got the loss, pitched six innings, and gave up four runs, though he did manage to strikeout eight Blue Jays. I don’t think Buchholz will stay in the rotation, which already has five above average starters. But letting the youngster get some more experience, little by little, will hopefully make Buchholz Major League-ready come 2010, when Penny and Smoltz will both become free agents, and the Sox have club options on Beckett and Wakefield. I think Theo himself got caught up in Buchholz’s 2007 triumphs, and mistakenly brought him into the Majors before he was ready. So, for the remainder of this year, look for Buchholz to make periodic starts with the Sox, and maybe even come out of the bullpen. This gradual re-introduction in the Major Leagues will prime this young hurler for his future with the Sox.

But, let’s not forget about the other possible explanation for Buchholz’s unexpected start. It is somewhat curious that Theo decided to give Buchholz the nod against the Blue Jays the first day after the All-Star Break. One might expect his 2009 debut to come in the middle of a long stretch without off-days, when our starting five might need a rest day. However, none of our starters have pitched since last Sunday, and they should all be fresh. Yet, Buchholz, our top pitching prospect, is making his first start of the season instead. Why not let Lester, who is 2-0 with a 1.45 against Toronto this season, including a 12 strikeout performance back on May 31? Well, here’s why. After Buchholz’s lackadaisical 2008, his trade value has plummeted. Following his no-hitter and September success in Boston in ‘07, he was gold. Everyone wanted to get their hands on Clay Buchholz. But now, all teams see is that Clay can dominate Triple-A hitters, but can’t do so much in the Majors. After all, his 2-9, 2008 campaign can’t be overshadowed by his no-hitter against the Orioles two years ago. Anyways, the Red Sox are reported to be interested in acquiring Blue Jays’ ace Roy Halladay, whom Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi is prepared to trade, should a team aggressively step up and offer a superb set of prospects, which would ideally include at least one top pitching prospect. Well, what better way to showcase our top pitching prospect to Ricciardi than to have him dominate his own Toronto hitters? If Theo is serious about acquiring Halladay, we’ll probably have to part with Buchholz, and the more his trade value rises before the July 31st deadline, the less we’ll have to give up in addition to Buchholz. Personally, I think the Red Sox are World Series material without Halladay, whom we would have trouble resigning when his contract expires at the end of 2010; I hope the first scenario is really what the Red Sox front office is trying to do, not attempting to pump up Buchholz’s market value in an attempt to trade for Roy Halladay.

Mad at Madden

Tim Wakefield didn’t pitch in Monday’s All-Star Game, and Joe Madden has slid a notch in my book. No, just being there isn’t a thrill for the 42-year old, no matter how much he might say it is. I was disgusted to see Wakefield relaxing in the bullpen with his feet up, while the AL closers came in to finish off the game. He’ll probably never get another chance to pitch in the All-Star Game, and the least Madden could have done is put him in for an inning just to throw the NL batters for a loop with his knuckleball. Most of them have never seen a knuckleball, and Wake has won three of the four games he started against NL teams. Mark Buehrle has decent stuff, but he’s basically Johan Santana in a White Sox uniform—nothing the NL isn’t used to seeing. And second of all, this was Buehrle’s fourth All-Star appearance, and in the 2005 Midsummer Classic, he threw two scoreless innings. I think he’s had his All-Star Game fill. Joe Madden must have known how much Red Sox Nation wanted to see the second-oldest first-time All-Star pitch, so why couldn’t he have let him thrown one freakin’ inning?

As an aside, we’ve been hearing about how Satchel Paige was the oldest first-time All-Star in Major League history, when he represented the St. Louis Browns on the American League team in 1952 at the ripe age of 46. In a rain-shortened game, he did not get a chance to pitch. However, the next year, he was again on the American League All-Star team, and he pitched an inning, while giving up three hits and two runs.

Just Dive, Drew!

I don’t know if I was the only one who noticed this, but last night, Sox fans gathered another piece of evidence in the case of Red Sox Nation v. J.D. Drew. In the sixth inning, Justin Masterson was charged with his first blown save after David DeJesus hit a 381 foot home run just into the right field bullpen. Now, most outfielders would relish a long ball that clears the wall by less than a foot, because most outfielders like to give the home crowd a show by making a magnificent catch that robs a home run. But not J.D. Drew. He was content to bump into the wall as gently as a leaf falling to the ground, content to watch the ball skim the top of the wall, as two Royals jogged around the bases. But we were playing the Royals, and already had the game in control, so why risk an injury, right? Actually, no. Dejesus’s two-run shot essentially won the game for the Royals, who ended up beating Boston 8-6. Here's J.D.'s lack of effort. http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=5501039

It hurts me to say this about a professional outfielder, but J.D. must still be haunted by the time he crashed into the right field wall in 2007: chasing down a fly ball, he bruised his back, putting him out of the lineup for a few days. OK, so he’s a little wimpy for not wanting to put his body on the line like we watched Coco do time and time again. But there’s more. In 2007, two months after he bruised his back on that wall, Fenway groundskeepers added two inches of padding so that J.D. Drew wouldn’t have to fear hurting himself if he decided to play all-out baseball for once in his life. And yet, even now, J.D. still isn’t comfortable playing his position the way it was meant to be played. To see a real outfielder, see Aaron Rowand’s body-sacrificing running catch for the Phillies. I know people always look to J.D. as the cause of all the Red Sox’s problems, and I’m not one of those people. I know he’s ultra-talented, and his on-base percentage is off the charts. Plus, who can forget his grand slam in game six of the 2007 ALCS against the Indians (we won the World Series that year. Thanks, J.D.!) But I’m still waiting to see some $14 million-a-year defense from this one-time All Star.a

Stat of the Day: Youkilis

Of the top 50 AL hitters, (by BA), the average difference between their BA and OBP is .66. So if a batter hit .305, one would expect his OBP to be .371. A difference of more than .66 would indicate that a batter has a keen eye, and thus walks quite a bit—this is a good thing. Generally speaking, walks are good, and if a batter can maintain a high BA, and high OBP, he is a valuable asset to his team. Kevin Youkilis’s OBP is an astonishing 1.20 higher than his BA. Of the top AL hitters, this range is second only to Ben Zobrist of the Tampa Bay Rays, (1.22). Nevertheless, Youk’s data is more impressive because his BA is still .9 points higher than that of Zobrist, and his OBP is .7 points higher. Here’s what I mean:
Ben Zobrist: Batting average = .282
On-base percentage = .404
Difference, .404 -.282 = 1.22

Kevin Youkilis: Batting average = .291
On-base percentage = .411
Difference, .411 - .291 = 1.20

Stat of the Day: Junebug

David Ortiz has finished one fantastic June after his maddening first few months to the season. Take a look at his numbers: .320 BA, 7 HR, 18 RBI, 1.062 OPS in 24 games. In each of these four telling stats, Ortiz ranks better than the entire AL All-Star starting infield of Evan Longoria, Derek Jeter, Dustin Pedroia, and Mark Teixera. On top of that, he’s only made one fielding error all season!


But what’s most interesting about this breakout June is that it wouldn’t be totally out of the question for him to keep batting at this pace for the rest of the year. If he batted a whole year at the pace of this past June, he would not set career highs in any category. His 1.062 OPS would rank behind his 1.066 of 2007, and his .320 BA would not be as good as the .332 he hit in ’07. The 121 RBI he would be on pace for would be less than the ’04, ’05, and ’06 seasons, and his 47 projected homers would tie his 2005 total, and fall short of the 54 he hit in 2006. So what does this June ’09 tell us about the remainder of Papi’s season? We know he still has it in him to put up big numbers, and it wouldn’t be asking too much of the 5-time All-Star to keep hitting as well as he did in June.

Furthermore, over the course of David’s career, June has been a turning point. What D-Day was to WWII, the month of June is to Ortiz’s hitting statistics. Once June rolls around, everything else starts to unfold for Ortiz. With each month following June, Ortiz’s numbers improve in every major category: his career hits, runs, doubles, RBI, walks, and homers are better in July than they were in June, and better in August than they were in July. Let’s look/hope for a monster rest of the season from Big Papi.

Captain Jason

Last night, the Red Sox lost to the Baltimore Orioles, who are last place in the AL East, with a record of 35-42. The loss itself isn't so dissapointing as how we lost. John Smoltz made his second start of the season and went 4 innings, giving up just one run. Then, the rains came. and I'm not being metaphorical. A 71-minute rain delay took Smoltz out of the game earlier than expected. No problem, right? Bosten lead the O's 9-1 at this point, and the Sox bullpen leads the MLB with a combined ERA of under 2.90. However, something happened when play resumed that didn't seem too significant at the time: it wasn't the early departure of Smoltz; but instead, with the game seemingly in the hands of the Red Sox, backup catcher George Kottaras replaced Jason Varitek. 'Tek had to wait over an hour between innings, something catchers aren't accustomed to doing. He had fallen out of rhythm, and Kottaras's BA is basically identical to the Captain's, so it wouldn't be too bad to put the 26-year-old in the game, right? However, Jason Varitek knows the game of baseball better than anyone on the team, and calls the best game behind the plate in all of baseball. So, how did Baltimore become the the first last place team to come back from a 9-run deficit in the 7th inning to defeat a first place team? George Kottaras isn't Jason Varitek. No catcher is. Varitek has caught more no-hitters (4) than any catcher who has ever played the game of baseball, and that's not because he's caught for Cy Young-winning pitchers. Let's look at the no-hitters he's called: Hideo Nomo's, Derek Lowe's, Clay Buchholz', and Jon Lester's. Other than Lester, none of these pitchers have really gone on to have that much success in the Major Leagues. Pitchers get better with Varitek behind the plate. It's that simple. Our bullpen has average stuff, and without Varitek calling their game, they would be average (at best) pitchers. When Kottaras replaced Varitek after the rain delay last night, they became below average pitchers. Masterson, Okajima, and Saito gave up a total of 10 runs in two innings. That never happens! It seems totally out of whack for what we have come to expect out of our spectacular bullpen. The fact of the matter is, they're spectacular when Jason Varitek calls their game. When Varitek retires and is no longer calling games for the Red Sox, we're going to need a panacea of epic proportions to keep keep the team afloat. So, when 'Tek retires from playing catcher, Boston shouldn't let him retire from baseball alltogether. They should bring him back as some sort of coach--bench coach, catching coach, manager, it doesn't matter. Although his numbers might not show it, and although his number might not get retired by the Red Sox, and although he won't be inducted to the Hall of Fame, Jason Varitek is the most valuable player on the Red Sox roster.

Replacing Mike Lowell

The Sox were delivered a huge blow today, losing starting third baseman and 2007 World Series MVP Mike Lowell to the disabled list with a right hip strain. Lowell, 35, is coming off pre-season hip surgery and wasn't expected to perform nearly as well as he has thus far (.282 AVG, .789 OPS). Nevertheless, hip strength and flexibility are absolutely crucial in the game of baseball, especially in hitting. Your hips generate most of the torque in your swing, thus healthy and powerful hips will result in more hits. Now that Lowell is experiencing the pain that most of us saw coming, I don't think we can completely rely on him to continue performing at this level for the rest of the season.

That being said, the Sox' brass has two options. They could test the trade market for a corner-infielder/utility type player to fill the void for the remainder of this season, or look internally and shuffle a platoon of Kevin Youkilis, Mark Kotsay and David Ortiz from 1B, 3B and DH; while having Nick Green, Jed Lowrie and possibly a healthy Mike Lowell manning third.

I feel Theo Epstein is one to look at matters internally first, before having to shell out the quality pitching it seems every team is after in order to land an every day player. If shuffling around the aforementioned players is not getting the job done, the Sox have a variety of options. Names that have popped up are Nick Johnson of the Nationals, a very good first baseman DH type that just plain gets on base. His OBP is hovering around .470, some 100+ points higher than the league average. Also Garrett Atkins of the Rockies, Mark Teahan of the Royals, and Bill Hall of the Brewers. All of these players would command mid-level pitching, probably a reliever along the lines of Takashi Saito or Manny Delcarmen.

With the Yankees and Rays in the rear view mirror but fast approaching, the front office needs to make a decision soon to secure another pennant for the hub.