1.Drew Brees against a Minnesota pass defense ranked 24th in opponent passer rating. Come on, you do the math. Another reason I have reason to reason Brees will have a big game: Drew Brees averages 310 pass yards per game in eight home games this season. In their past four away games (GB, ARI, CAR, CHI), the Vikings have allowed an average of 286 pass yards. Brees will tear it up against a sub-par Vikings secondary.
2.The key to the Vikings’ win against the Cowboys was the pressure they got on Tony Romo (6 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 1 interception). In home games the past two years, Drew Brees has been sacked multiple times only three times, and has thrown multiple picks only twice. Against Dallas today, Romo was sacked for 42 yards—this season, the Saints are sacked for an average of less than 8.5 yards per game.
3.Adrian Peterson hasn’t rushed for 100 yards since November 15. In fact, since then, he’s averaged only 66 yards per game. Minnesota can’t expect Brett Favre to win this game single-handedly.
4.In their first postseason game, the Saints rushed for 170 yards and passed for 247 with an almost 50:50 run:pass play ratio. That’s what the Saints were doing for the first 13 games of the season when they were unstoppable. I think that their Week 15 loss to the Cowboys (the only one I really care about—the rest were meaningless) can be attributed entirely to the fact that the Saints rushed the ball only 7 times, while passing it 29 times. Look for another balanced attack that will keep the Vikings D on its heels.
5.I don’t think any team could have used a first-round bye week more than the Saints. In the first 11 games of the season, the Saints outscored their opponents 407-221. In the last five games of the season—coming at the end of a stretch of 12 straight games, they were outscored 103-120. Now, after an off week, the Saints have reestablished their dominance, scoring three times as many points as the Cardinals in their first playoff game. When the Saints are rested and Sean Payton and Gregg Williams—who make the best coaching tandem in the NFL—have time to prepare their players, the Saints cannot be beat.
I’ve severely underestimated the Jets. Rex Ryan is really becoming one of the best coaches in the NFL. After he beat the Colts, I felt the Jets were getting lots of unwarranted hype. But since then, they’ve won three games against teams that I honestly thought would run all over them. I really liked the Bengals, and everyone liked the Chargers, but the Jets played them tough, and here they are in the conference championship. I still think the Colts will win, but I’ve become a believer in the Jets.
1.Mark Sanchez sucks, and the Jets have no confidence in him. No team has made fewer pass attempts this season than the Jets, and his past six games, he’s averaged 20 pass attempts per game. The Colts defense may not be the best in the league, but if the Jets do nothing but run the ball, the Colts will be ready.
2.The Jets have a rookie running back, a rookie quarterback, and a rookie head coach. Yes, all three have surpassed our expectations so far, but none have played in this type of capital “b” Big game. And Peyton Manning has. He’s won a Super Bowl, he’s been Super Bowl MVP, and he has almost twice as many pass yards in his 16 playoff games than Mark Sanchez does in his entire career. No one manages the game better than Peyton Manning, and he will lead the Colts to a victory.
3.The Jets have been so successful because Darrelle Revis has been able to shut down big name receivers like Chad Ochocinco and Vincent Jackson—the marquis receiver of their respective teams. Who is the marquis receiver for the Colts? Reggie Wayne? Maybe. But Dallas Clark has just as many receptions and just as many TDs. So who do the Jets think Revis will cover next week? He can cover anyone he wants, and he’ll probably shut that single down. But the fact remains that no quarterback is better at spreading the ball around than Peyton Manning. He throws to whomever is open, and he’ll complete it 99% of the time—well, really 69%, but you know what I mean. Austin Collie, Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon are all targets of Manning, and he does not discriminate. Revis will without a doubt take one receiver out of the game for one play at a time. But after that, Manning still has options.
4.Here’s what the Jets have going for them: they’re on a roll, having won four in a row—all against playoff teams—by a combined 64 points; they beat the Colts by two touchdowns less than a month ago (notice I’m leaving out the part about Peyton being benched after 1 half); the Colts defense is nothing special, especially against the rush: they allow 124 rush yards per game, 22nd in the NFL; the Jets defense is far and away the best in the NFL—1st in opponent completion percentage, pass yards, pass TDs, passer rating, and passing first downs; they just beat the hottest team in the NFL, the Chargers, in San Diego; the Colts have a rookie head coach, and Peyton Manning has only won one playoff game without Tony Dungy at the helm (it came last weekend). Those are considerable advantages, and I’m totally throwing out the Jets. They definitely have a chance to win…I just don’t think they will.
5.My fifth thing to think about, coming into this game is Peyton Manning. He’s having arguably the best year of his career this year, and has only been sacked 10 times—hence, he’s ready to play. You think he’s ready to lose to the Jets for the second time this season? I didn’t think so.
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