Round Two Picks, Confidence 4

This game is really a tossup for me. I don’t know which Viking team we’re going to see. Will it be the Vikings that beat the Giants by 37 points in the last game of the regular season; or the Vikings who, just six days prior, gave up 36 points and lost to the Chicago Bears? Minnesota is a great team: their offense is loaded with weapons from Percy Harvin to Sidney Rice to Adrian Peterson to Brett Favre; in fact, Minnesota scored more points than any team in the NFL except the Saints. However, the Dallas defense is H-O-T hot. In their last three games, they’ve allowed a total of 14 points, 45 rush yards per game, 3.7 sacks per game, and 3 third down conversions per game (which is below their NFL-leading season average of 4.2 per game). The one thing Minnesota has going for them is Brett Favre. It didn’t work for him down the stretch in 2008: last season, after starting 8-3 with the Jets, he lost four of his last five games and NY did not qualify for the playoffs. This season, he’s made more pass attempts than he did last season, and I’m not sure how his arm will hold up this weekend. But in 2009, Favre achieved a passer rating, interception total, pass yard total, and touchdown total in the top three of his career. At home, his numbers are off the charts: his passer rating of 118.1 is incredible. And if the Cowboy defense has one hole, it’s the passing game. They’re below the league average in opponent passer rating and opponent passing yards per game. So if Brett Favre can bring his A game, the Vikings will have a serious chance at a win. In Dallas’s five losses this season, the opposing quarterback averages 255 yards through the air; while in those same five games, only one team ran for a hundred yards, and the leading rusher on the opposing team averaged 53.4 YPG. If the Cowboys can hold Adrian Peterson to 53.4 yards, there’s no way Brett Favre can pull together a game good enough for the Vikings to win.

On the other side, the Dallas offense is balanced: Tony Romo behind center is having a career year, all three backs—Marion Barber, Tashard Choice, and Felix Jones—have the potential to break out a twenty yard run at any point during the game, and with a receiving corps of Miles Austin, Jason Witten, and Roy Williams, the Minnesota D will have their hands full. The Vikings have accumulated the second-best point differential in the NFL, and they should put up a fight against Dallas. What the game will come down to is the advantage that each team has over the other: The Vikings home field advantage: Favre has been lights out at Mall of America Field, and has not lost a game there all season. The Cowboys have better chemistry and they have momentum: the Vikings haven’t had chemistry since training camp, when Favre admitted that he did not have the support of the locker room; plus, don’t forget Chad Childress and Brett Favre’s recent power struggles. The ‘Boys have won their last four games, outscoring their opponents 96-28; their defense (especially DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer) looks unstoppable; and Tony Romo is finally playing great.

In the end, the game will hinge of Brett Favre. If he throws for 300 yards, they’ll have a chance of winning. If not, the Cowboys will move on.