Round Two Picks, Confidence: 9

Yeah, yeah, say what you want about my wildcard round playoff picks. They sucked, I know. I’m batting .250 so far. But hey, that’s 15% higher than Varitek’s batting average last season.

This week, I’m going to post my Round Two Picks one at a time, starting with the ones I’m most comfortable with.

Saints over Cardinals
If the Cardinals couldn’t stop Aaron Rodgers, how can they expect to defend against the Saints, who not only have the best QB in the NFL, but also have a great receiving corps and an above-average rushing game? The Cardinals are going to play the Saints the same way they played the Packers: give the ball to Kurt Warner (I was wrong, he’s still got a full tank, even in Week 18), and he’ll throw downfield to Steve Breaston and Larry Fitzgerald—maybe even Anquan Boldin, who could be back from his sprained MCL. He completed 88% of his passes, and threw for five TDs against the Green Bay secondary for a passer rating of 154.1. You think he’ll duplicate that against the Saints secondary in the Superdome? Quarterbacks against the Saints complete an average of 57% of their passes, and manage a passer rating of 67.2, fifth and third in the NFL respectively. The Saints have allowed fewer passing touchdowns this season than they have had games. Granted, you could have said the same thing about Green Bay’s passing defense prior to last night’s game, but over the course of the season, New Orleans has had a better overall defense. I mean, Roethlisberger threw for 500 yards against the Packers just three weeks ago! What I’m saying is you can’t expect Kurt Warner to throw for 350+ again this weekend. You can expect that out of Drew Brees, however. The Cardinals have allowed a 300 yard passing game five times this season. Matt Hasselbeck threw for 315 yards against the Cardinals, for cryin’ out loud; that’s 100 yards higher than his season average! Arizona is 27th in the NFL for passing yards per game, and 23rd in terms of overall yardage. In the end, the Saints defense is far from impenetrable, but they will hold Arizona to under 24 points. On the other side, the Saints offense—especially Drew Brees—will tear up the Cardinals defense and put up at least 31 points.