Doc in Phil?

The Roy Halladay trade talks have been dwindling recently. According to Blue Jays’ GM J.P. Ricciardi, no team has been “aggressive” enough. The Jays are in rebuilding mode, so an aggressive trade would include a few top prospects, including a pitcher. In Boston, few were willing to throw in touted righty Clay Buchholz; in the Big Apple, flamethrower Joba Chamberlain was untouchable; in Philly, 22 year-old Kyle Drabek was considered too good to give up. Until now, that is. It appears that the Philadelphia Phillies are warming up to the idea of parting with their top pitching prospect. But why would a team running away with the NL East (9-game win streak, 6.0 game lead) surrender the most important building block of their farm system for an aging pitcher that historically pitches better before the All-Star Break than after?

For one, Halladay isn’t any ordinary aging pitcher. If he joined 46 year-old Jamie Moyer on the Phillies rotation, Philly would be home to two of the biggest freaks of nature in the Major Leagues. Thirty-two year-old Roy Halladay has amazingly pitched 7+ innings in 16 of his 18 total starts this season, and has a miniscule 2.73 ERA. Even though Moyer’s 23-year Major League experience is valuable in the clubhouse, having a pitcher who is pushing 50 won’t win you the World Series. Sure, he’ll win some games along the way, and his experience is valuable in the clubhouse, but with a 9-6 record, Moyer has shown that he can be hit. What the Phillies lack is a lights-out starter. It’s debatable whether they actually need one at this point in the season, as their explosive offense can keep them atop an ever-weakening NL East. They lead the NL in runs scored, as well as in home runs hit. However, pitching wins in the postseason. If you can assemble three or four pitchers in whom you are confident they can pull out a win against any team, you’re in good shape. And I don’t think the Phillies have that right now. Jamie Moyer is their winningest pitcher, but has defeated only one team with a record better than .500—the Brewers (48-46). Joe Blanton has a career record of barely .500, and Cole Hamels’s season (5-5, 4.72) has been disappointing to say the least. Even with all this said, for now, the Phills probably don’t need Halladay—they have their division locked up, and don’t really need a playoff push at the end of the season. If they make a move to acquire Doc, it’s not a sign that Charlie Manuel isn’t comfortable with his rotation the way it is now; it’s a sign he plans on needing a sure-fire starter, come October.

Stat of the Day: The Error

According to baseball writer Bill James, the “error” is one of the most useless and misleading statistics in baseball. “It’s a moral judgment” he says, “you have to do something right to get an error; even if the ball is right at you, then you were standing in the right place to begin with”. I don’t disagree with him. An outfielder could get a great break on a ball, take the right angle towards it, and get within an arm’s reach of a well-hit fly ball. If it bounces off his glove, he gets an error. On the other hand, if an outfielder does not judge the trajectory of the ball correctly, he ends up taking one step forward, one back, then sprints forward, only to slide and miss a shoestring catch that ends up as a triple, he’s off the hook. Who would you rather have? The one who can determine the path of the ball exquisitely but occasionally drops a can-a-corn, or the one who reliably has to field the ball on a bounce because he has no idea where it’s going when it leaves the bat? I’ll take the former any day of the week. To prove that simply watching a player cannot accurately judge his defensive prowess, he tells you to think about this: “If [the batter] hits a smash down the line and the third baseman makes a diving stop and throws the runner out, then we notice and applaud the third baseman. But until the smash is hit, who is watching the third baseman? If he anticipates, if he adjusts for the hitter and moves over just two steps, then the same smash is a routine backhand stop—and nobody applauds”. I do think errors are an important statistic, but by no means do they tell you all you need to know about a player’s defensive ability. Here’s some stats to look at.

Since 1995, Derek Jeter has committed the most errors of any player. In that time, he’s won three Gold Gloves. Craig Biggio has the most errors of any second basemen in that time—he has four Gold Gloves to his name. Since 1999, the four top error-committers have been shortstops. By no means does that mean they are poor fielders. On the contrary, shortstop is where managers like to play their best defensive players. They commit so many “errors” because they can get to many more balls and have so many chances to commit an “error” than any other fielder. Brandon Inge and David Wright, two of the most amazing fielders in the game (Web Gems, anyone?) are two of the worst thirty defensive players in the MLB, according to the error stat.

In case you’re wondering, this Bill James character invented his own statistic that he feels measures a player’s defensive ability more accurately. It’s called the range factor: (putouts + assists) ÷ innings played. Instead of counting the number of mistakes a position player made, it counts all the successful plays made in the field and does not penalize a player for dropping a ball he might have made a great play just to get to.

Stat of the Day: Around the MLB

Of the nine batters with the most home runs in the Major Leagues, seven play in the National League. So much for the designated hitter. In fact, Toronto’s Adam Lind has the most HR of any DH with 20—good enough to be tied for 16th in the MLB.

Only three Red Sox position players have played 80+ games this year, the fewest in the AL East; four Blue Jays have played 90+ games. Albert Pujols leads the Majors, and is the only player to have played in 92 games this season. More than anything else, this stat shows the depth of the Red Sox roster. They have the flexibility to give a player the day off, without sacrificing much on either side of the field. Whereas most teams are only comfortable starting their starters, Tito can use his backups without so much as a second thought.

Say Bye-Bye to EEI

WBCN, 104.1 The Rock of Boston will soon air only live on the internet, coming off the radio for good. Actually, if you have an HD radio receiver, you'll still be able to hear it through the radio on 98.5 HD 2. Replacing WBCN will be Mix 98.5, becoming Mix 104. Now, I don't know the logistics of changing one's frequency on the radio, but I assume 104.1's reception is somehow better than 98.5's. So what will be on 98.5? The first and only FM sports radio in Boston. CBS is launching a new FM sports radio campaign, in Boston under the title of "The Sports Hub", and will air "a wide assortment of sports talk and play-by-play programming", according to CBS. Starting August 13, it will also become the new home of the Patriots and Bruins. It will compete with the AM station WEEI, which, ironically, was owned by CBS up until 1982. It started its sports programming when it was sold to the Boston Celtics in 1991.

I like the move. FM undoubtedly gets better reception in the Boston area, and radios that broadcast on FM and AM frequencies are getting harder to find. I'll love not having to pay an extra 20 bucks for a radio that carries both broadcasting formats, just so I can get my sports radio fix.

AM radio has been around since the 1900s, and not until the 1980s did FM start being widely used, despite being patented in 1931. First it was music, then talk, now sports are all switching over to FM broadcasting. WEEI was really the only reason I ever had to turn to an AM station. Now, with FM radio being more convenient and having higher sound quality, I think sports fans will stop fiddling with their radios to switch to AM, and will instead opt to turn to FM 98.5 The Sports Hub. Unfortunately, unless Red Sox and Patriots play-by-play keeps it around, I don't think WEEI will stick around much longer.

Buchholz to Debut Friday

Boston's top pitching prospect Clay Buchholz is set to make his Red Sox 2009 debut this Friday against the Toronto Blue Jays in Toronto. Buchholz is 0-2 with a 4.22 ERA in his career against Toronto. What's the reasoning behind this decision? Read on to find out.

Last year, we saw Clay Buchholz crumble under all the media/fan hype, after his 2007 no-hitter and subsequent 3-1 record, 1.59 ERA. He was a kid, only 22 years old, and we Bostonians thought he would be the next big thing in Boston. However, in 2008, things didn't click for Buchholz. He still had good stuff—low to mid-90s fastball to go along with a devastating curve—but he struggled with his control, as he allowed .54 walks per inning, compared to .45 an inning in 2007. He gave up 11 homers in only 15 starts, and accumulated an ERA of 6.75. So this season, Theo tried to keep the Buchholz buzz to a minimum, keeping him in Triple-A until the right moment came. In Pawtucket, where he was able to avoid the spotlight, he thrived. His walks per inning dropped to .30, his ERA fell to 2.36, and his WHIP is under 1.0. Most other ballclubs would rush such a lights-out AAA pitcher into joining their 40-man roster. But the Red Sox aren’t like most ballclubs. Theo let him start 16 games in Pawtucket, and only now brings him up to start a game against the Blue Jays. In Buchholz’s one start against Toronto last year, he got the loss, pitched six innings, and gave up four runs, though he did manage to strikeout eight Blue Jays. I don’t think Buchholz will stay in the rotation, which already has five above average starters. But letting the youngster get some more experience, little by little, will hopefully make Buchholz Major League-ready come 2010, when Penny and Smoltz will both become free agents, and the Sox have club options on Beckett and Wakefield. I think Theo himself got caught up in Buchholz’s 2007 triumphs, and mistakenly brought him into the Majors before he was ready. So, for the remainder of this year, look for Buchholz to make periodic starts with the Sox, and maybe even come out of the bullpen. This gradual re-introduction in the Major Leagues will prime this young hurler for his future with the Sox.

But, let’s not forget about the other possible explanation for Buchholz’s unexpected start. It is somewhat curious that Theo decided to give Buchholz the nod against the Blue Jays the first day after the All-Star Break. One might expect his 2009 debut to come in the middle of a long stretch without off-days, when our starting five might need a rest day. However, none of our starters have pitched since last Sunday, and they should all be fresh. Yet, Buchholz, our top pitching prospect, is making his first start of the season instead. Why not let Lester, who is 2-0 with a 1.45 against Toronto this season, including a 12 strikeout performance back on May 31? Well, here’s why. After Buchholz’s lackadaisical 2008, his trade value has plummeted. Following his no-hitter and September success in Boston in ‘07, he was gold. Everyone wanted to get their hands on Clay Buchholz. But now, all teams see is that Clay can dominate Triple-A hitters, but can’t do so much in the Majors. After all, his 2-9, 2008 campaign can’t be overshadowed by his no-hitter against the Orioles two years ago. Anyways, the Red Sox are reported to be interested in acquiring Blue Jays’ ace Roy Halladay, whom Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi is prepared to trade, should a team aggressively step up and offer a superb set of prospects, which would ideally include at least one top pitching prospect. Well, what better way to showcase our top pitching prospect to Ricciardi than to have him dominate his own Toronto hitters? If Theo is serious about acquiring Halladay, we’ll probably have to part with Buchholz, and the more his trade value rises before the July 31st deadline, the less we’ll have to give up in addition to Buchholz. Personally, I think the Red Sox are World Series material without Halladay, whom we would have trouble resigning when his contract expires at the end of 2010; I hope the first scenario is really what the Red Sox front office is trying to do, not attempting to pump up Buchholz’s market value in an attempt to trade for Roy Halladay.