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Saturday, January 9, 2010

One More 2010 Red Sox Preview

I have a problem with what the Red Sox have done this offseason. I know what they’re trying to do, but I don’t agree with it. Theo has crafted one of the deepest rosters in the MLB, but he doesn’t have the star power that championship teams must have—especially at the plate. Look at the World Series teams last year and they’re dangerous bats. The Yankees had A-Rod, Teixeira, and Jeter who can all harm you at any point in the game. The Phillies had J-Roll, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Shane Victorino, and Jayson Werth.

We have three proven outfielders in Ellsbury, Cameron, and Drew. With this threesome, you know what you’re going to get: overall, they’re above-average defensively: Ellsbury and Cameron are definite Gold Glove candidates (Cameron already has three in his career). But no one will blow you away at the plate. They’re all decent hitters: together have a career batting average of .277 and 16 HR per year, which is okay, but it won’t win any championships. In the infield, it’s the same story: tons of depth, above-average defense, with mediocre bats. Between Adrian Beltre/Mike Lowell, Marco Scutaro, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and Victor Martinez there are ten .300 seasons, two 30 HR seasons, and seven seasons of .500 SLG%. In the Bronx, between A-Rod, Jeter, Cano, Teixeira, and Posada, there are twenty-seven .300 seasons, twenty 30-HR seasons, and twenty-six seasons of .500SLG %. The Yanks probably even have the edge defensively: going around the infield, Beltre>A-Rod, Jeter> Scutaro, Cano = Pedroia, Teixeira>Youkilis, Posada = Marinez. We might have a little more depth with Lowie, Lowell, and Varitek as backups, but ten out of ten people would rather have the Yankee lineup at the four infield positions.

The star power that a team needs to make a long playoff run simply does not exist on the Red Sox lineup. If there’s ever an injury, I’m more comfortable with the Red Sox bench players; if both teams stay healthy, though, there’s no question as to which team is better. I’ve already said that the Sox have the best starting rotation in the MLB, and that still stands. I believe Buchholz and Matsuzaka have the potential to be shut-down starters, and if they play up what they’re capable of, we could be looking at one of the best starting rotations in the history of baseball. Nevertheless, I don’t necessarily feel comfortable with the 2010 Red Sox roster as it stands today.

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Pass The Juice

In March 2005, MLB Commissioner Bud Selig, along with Jose Canseco, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, and Rafael Palmeiro sat before noteworthy congressmen and congresswomen on Capitol Hill to discuss the steroid issue plaguing professional baseball. The purpose of the hearings was to eradicate the use of performance-enhancing drugs for posterity—not just in professional sports, but in the youth community across America as well. The use of performance-enhancing drugs by adult men and women is bad enough, but under no circumstances should still-developing young people put these substances in their body. Yet, they do.

At the college level, according to a TA graduate now playing Division 1 football, testing for illegal performance enhancers is taken seriously both internally and by the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA). He has been tested by his own team five times since he started playing in 2007, and he says that the tests are “extremely difficult, if not impossible to cheat.” He told me that he knows of two teammates who have tested positive in the team-administered tests. The same player told me that the NCAA tests are administered in a similar cheat-proof procedure, but that he has never been tested. This year, the NCAA will drug test 10,500 athletes. To get a sense of how small this number is, even if all these tests were concentrated on college football, which they are not, the 10,500 tests would not even account for ¼ of all football players. Nevertheless, at least at this particular institution, it seems that illegal performance-enhancers are rare. The Thayer grad says that the “staff does a very good job of making sure we go by the rules” and that “the system seems to work well”. But what about in high school, where there is no testing, and students tend to be more shortsighted?

The steroid issue in high school is a nonissue, TA’s own Athletic Director Matt McGuirk believes. After all, he told me, the ISL has never had any incident of steroid use. He offers three reasons for this: first, with the development of advanced workout routines, and ISL students’ easy access to personal trainers, students can reach even the greatest fitness goals without the use of illegal drugs. Second, Thayer’s education about steroid use, including guest speakers and Sophomore Fitness, is effective in deterring students from using performance-enhancing drugs. When I asked him whether widespread steroid use in professional sports sets a bad example for students, McGuirk told me that publicized steroid use is actually the third factor that keeps young athletes from using them. When they see juiced up players like Gary Sheffield or Mark McGwire “lose their respect, pride, and dignity,” student-athletes are dissuaded from reaching for illegal performance enhancers by the worry that the same thing could happen to them. I never thought I’d say this, but thank you, Barry Bonds.

Is Matt McGuirk’s notion the right one, or is it optimistically naïve? Playing D-1 sports is romanticized by varsity players and coaches alike, and with ESPN, Sports Illustrated, and the like, high school athletes are hardly strangers to sports media: they know that stars are born in college, and at some point, all the work in the world just isn’t enough for many high school athletes. Everyone wants to succeed, so everyone works hard—but injecting oneself with illegal and potentially fatal drugs is something not everyone is willing to do. As I was told by the D-I football player, “sports are all some athletes have. They don’t have a great education or skills to fall back on…so they are willing to do whatever it takes to get as far as they can.”

Dangers of steroid abuse are never more pronounced than when they are used by inexperienced young adults. As teenagers mature, their bodies are already chock-full of hormones. When steroids enter the body, they are converted into hormones, of which adolescents have more than enough. Even full-grown adults should never take steroids until they have absorbed every last detail about what steroids are and how they work. Drugs like steroids are just too volatile to play around with. How long a steroid can be used continuously will also differ from one steroid to the next; how much, how many times a day, and into what part of the body a steroid can be administered will also vary. The fact of the matter is that there are just too many things that could go wrong in the process of taking steroids that makes them dangerous, and until one knows everything there is to know about steroids, they should not be used whatsoever.

In 2001 the Center for Disease Control reported that 5% of all high school students had taken steroids without a doctor’s prescription. Although this national data probably does not translate to the Thayer community, it does indicate the possibility that up to five students in every class might have used steroids by the time they graduate.

I asked another former Thayer student-athlete about his experience with steroids. The former Tiger, who will be named Fred to maintain his anonymity, confessed that he had dabbled in steroid use, and said that even as he was taking the drugs, he “didn’t know anything about them except the fact that they worked on my friend.” That’s really all Fred was concerned with: the results. In the minds of many steroid users, it doesn’t matter what the drugs may do to the body in the long run—most don’t even know—as long they are effective in the short run. The oral steroid that Fred was using, Dianabol, resulted in side effects like acne and mood swings, two things that don’t sound like they could precipitate long-term health risks. However, if any type of steroid is misused, it can cause very serious problems such as liver damage, high blood pressure, infertility, and stunted growth. Fortunately, Fred did not renew his steroid cycle after his first 16-day cycle had ended. This must have been a difficult decision, as the steroids that cost him only $50 for a two-week supply produced “great results in only three days.” These drugs work, there’s no doubt about that. The dangers manifest themselves when users turn into abusers, which can easily end up happening when, as Fred did, one obtains steroids from a friend, who gets them from a dealer, who probably doesn’t know all that much other than to tell his clients “Take x pills at y times”.

The potential risks Fred was exposing himself to are numerous. One technique that is common by steroid users is called “stacking”, which involves the use of multiple steroids at the same time. If being supplied by an experienced trainer or doctor who knows all there is to know about the drugs, stacking can be safe and can enhance the effectiveness of workouts. But chances are, if Fred had asked his supplier for some new steroids, the supplier would go out and acquire some new type of steroid that he heard was supposed to work differently, without considering the risks of using multiple steroids at once. Not a lot is known about the exact effects of every steroid, but think of stacking like this: if one was to take golf lessons from two instructors at the same time, they could give contradictory advice that could possibly make one’s game worse.

Just as dangerous as irresponsibly stacking one’s steroids is using the same steroid for too long. While some steroids can be used year-round, the body will not be able to cope with most steroids if they are used for too long. Fred’s Dianobol starts to become toxic after around eight months of daily use. But what does a dealer do when his client continues to purchase the same steroids for several consecutive months? Probably nothing. Fred told me that he would have “definitely” been able to keep purchasing Dianobol, as long as he had the money, and that the supplier “would not have told us [that long-term use of Dianabol is dangerous] because he would just want to make a profit.” These potential problems are amplified during the age of the Internet, where one has the opportunity to buy steroids online.

Check out a website called isteroids.com; it sells illegal steroids to anyone with a credit card. All sorts of oral steroids are sold from prices ranging from $70 to $95 per bottle; the “Pro (Advanced) Bulking Stack” includes 24 bottles of pills and will costs $1200. The site even explains how to avoid getting busted by the Feds during the shipping process. The most disturbing part of the webpage is how difficult it is to find anything resembling a warning about steroid abuse. The only thing I could find was at the bottom of a page titled Effects of Steroids, and the warning states concisely, “Always remember, effects of steroids are very serious. Users do experience bad and negative side effects, so be warned! Do your research.” Yet, there is absolutely nothing to ensure that customers do any research at all; nothing to make sure drugs aren’t being stacked improperly, no one there to monitor long-term use of steroids. It’s actually quite unsettling that this steroid supplier downplays the harmful effects of steroids.

I believe that steroids will continue to be used by the McGwires, Sosas, and Cansecos of professional baseball. And, honestly, I’m fine with that. These baseball players can afford to work with experienced trainers who know all there is to know about how to safely use steroids—because they can be used safely. On top of that, these professional athletes have completed normal human development, and their bodies are not changing at the rate that yours and mine are. So if they want to use steroids, let them. That’s not the problem, and MLB knows that. The problem is when young athletes—kids—hear about these superstars juicing, they think that they can too. They can’t. Even if a student thinks he has absorbed every last morsel of information, even if he thinks his body can handle the drugs, he hasn’t, and it can’t.

Monday, January 4, 2010

My Round 1 Picks

Three Week 17 rematches will be featured in the first round of The Playoffs

Patriots over Ravens
The loss of Welker isn’t as damaging as you might think. Rookie Julian Edelman is all the hype and by no means overrated. The Ravens were able to take Welker out the game in Week 4 anyway: on his first game back from injury, Welker only had six catches against the Ravens –which is his 2nd lowest total for the season—for 48 yards. The Pats went on to win that game 27-21. Tom Brady is 14-3 career in the playoffs and has never lost his first playoff game; the Pats finally have all their backs healthy: Laurence Maroney sat out Week 17 and will be rested, Sammy Morris is back from his injuries that sidelined him for six games in the middle of the season, and Fred Taylor rushed for two TDs last week and has recovered from his ankle injury that kept him out 10 games.

Bengals over Jets
The Jets played out of their minds on Sunday, and there’s no way that will happen again, this time in Cincinnati. The Bengals have had some quality wins this season, including at Green Bay, twice against Pittsburgh, and twice against Baltimore. Their losses came in a last-second lucky touchdown in Week 1 in Denver (they were good then, remember?), at Minnesota, at San Diego, a fluke loss to the up-and-down Oakland Raiders, and a Week 17 blowout that really had no impact on their playoff seeding. The only quality wins I’d give the Jets came in the first two weeks of the season against the Texans and Patriots; you could also throw in Week 15 against the Falcons, but I wouldn’t. The Bengals now know Sanchez won’t throw the ball next week (he threw for only 63 yards in Week 17) and the Cincinnati D can focus on stopping Brad Smith and the above-average run game of the Jets.

Cowboys over Eagles
What December woes? (What overused cliché?) Tony Romo has averaged 310 yards his last six games, throwing only two interceptions to go along with eleven touchdowns. The ‘Boys will be back in Dallas, and I don’t see any reason they won’t steamroll the Eagles in Round #2. The Dallas defense is playing harder than they have all season, and have shutout their last two opponents. The ‘Boys will likely be playing for their coach Wade Phillip’s job, and I think that they will be motivated more than they have been all season. The Cowboys haven’t won a playoff game since 1996. Jerry Jones didn’t spend a bazillion dollars on his new stadium to lose another playoff game. He wants to win. The Cowboy fans want to win. His team wants to win. They will win.

Packers over Cardinals
Aaron Rodgers is coming into his own after living in the shadow of Brett Favre, and is becoming one of the elite passers in the NFL. He still has some game management skills that he can improve upon, but when it comes to purely throwing the football, there’s few I’d rather have than Aaron Rodgers. Speaking of Brett Favre though, I don’t think veteran Kurt Warner, at age 38, really has any more big games in him. He averages less than 250 passing yards in his last five games (excluding Week 17, when he threw but six passes), and the Cardinals don’t really have much of a run game that he can lean on: Tim Hightower hasn’t had more than 15 carries all season. Of the twelve playoff teams, the Cardinals total the second fewest yards per game, and I don’t see their defense stopping the Packers 6th-ranked offense. To tell you the truth, I’m not really impressed with the Cardinals. At all. You know how many wins they had against teams with records better than .500? One. Against the Texans in Week 5…Warner and the Cards were coming off of a buy week. I mean look at their schedule. They beat St. Louis twice, they beat Seattle twice, and they beat the Tigers: that’s half their wins right there. If they lost to the 49ers twice, how do they expect to beat the Packers?

Friday, January 1, 2010

What's Up With That: Blue Turf?

What’s up with Boise St.’s blue turf? I’ll be the first to admit that it looks awesome; it’s different, it’s noticeable, and it has put Boise on the map. Would Boise St. still be respected in college football if it did not have blue turf? Yeah, probably. But would they have won seven of the last eight Western Athletic Conference championships? I doubt it. High school athletes are not drawn to Boise St. because Boise is the sixth greenest urban area in the U.S., or because it’s the ninth hottest midsize city for entrepreneurs, not even because Idaho produces one-third of all the potatoes grown in the United States. It’s because they want to play on the blue turf of Bronco Stadium. But I do have a problem with it. In all honesty, I believe that it’s cheating. What color are the Bronco uniforms? Blue—they are the exact color as the turf they play on. Was this simply by accident? I think not. This year, the team even eliminated its orange pants to get the blue top on blue pants on blue turf camouflage look. You can’t tell me that when visiting
teams come to Bronco Stadium, they see the Boise players as clearly as they do their teammates. Especially if we’re talking about their peripheral vision. Do you have a better chance of seeing a blue jersey or a white jersey coming at you from the side? The home field advantage of Boise St. is one of the best in college football. Their players are essentially camouflaged by the field, and that’s not fair. What’s stopping Alabama from installing a crimson playing field? How many more TD’s would Tim Tebow have had if the Gators played on blue turf? Think about it: cornerbacks and safeties have their backs turned to the play until they see that no pass is coming, and then they locate Tebow immediately. If Tebow blended in with the turf he was playing on, I guarantee he’d have at least a half second extra time of not being noticed because the defensive backs wouldn’t know if he’s scrambling to the weak side or strong side. Boise playing on blue turf is an unfair advantage that the NCAA needs to take care of promptly.

Thunderstorms in OKC

Now, I know I just sang the praises of one expansion team, the Texans (introduced in 2002). But let me sing the praises of one more.

I know the Oklahoma City Thunder is not really an expansion team; the Seattle SuperSonics just relocated to Oklahoma City, and changed their name and jerseys. But it does feel like a whole new team. In the three seasons from the ‘05-06 to ‘07-08, the SuperSonics compiled a record of 86-160 and failed to make the playoffs once—which you almost have to try to do in the NBA. After averaging a little over 15,000 fan attendance from 2002 to 2008, the SuperSonics moved to OKC, where attendance now hovers around 18,000 per game, which is good enough for 11th in the NBA. This season, the Thunder have a winning record, and, should the season end today, they would be in the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. Such a turnaround has certainly been unexpected. Look at some of the previous relocations in professional sports: Montreal Expos became the Nationals in 2005, who have yet to have a winning season or make the playoffs; the Washington Senators moved to Dallas to become to Rangers in 1972, and didn’t make the playoffs for their first 24 years in Texas, and still have only won one playoff game ever.

The move to OKC feels a different, though. For the first time ever, Oklahoma houses a major professional sports team, and the fans have welcomed the Thunder as well as they possibly could have. Personally, I'm not surprised; college football draws a huge crowd there, and I don't see why no pro team has ventured there before the Thunder. Regardless, the team has reacted to the support accordingly. Kevin Durant is becoming one of the most electrifying players in all of basketball, currently fourth in the NBA with 28.5 PPG (he just broke a 37-year-old franchise record, scoring 30 points in his 6th straight game). He leads an extraordinarily young team with tons of potential: the average years of experience on the roster is 2.8, including four rookies. The team's 18-14 record is a 14-game improvement from where it was at this time last season, and the Thunder have had some big wins, including against the Magic, Suns, Spurs, and Heat. I also have to give them credit for two losses against the Lakers by a combined six points.

So check your city’s forecast, and make sure there are no eminent thunderstorms. This might be The Inconvenient Truth talking, but something tells me that thunderstorms are growing more powerful every year.

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