Before I start, I'd like to point out the striking resemblance between Matt Cassel and Thayer Academy's own Sean Fernald. Now, here I go.
Last year, we thought Matt Cassel showed that he deserved a starting QB job in the NFL. When reigning MVP Tom Brady went down with a knee injury in the season opener, Cassel led the Patriots to a more-than-respectable 11-5 record. The Patriots went on to give Cassel the most expensive one-year contract for an offensive player in NFL history, and then trade him to the Kansas City Chiefs for a second round draft pick. But this year, I think Cassel will show that Tom Brady may very well have the easiest job in the NFL.
We were shocked when Cassel, the supposed breakout player of the year, was traded to the Chiefs along with Pro Bowl linebacker Mike Vrabel for a measly second round draft pick. Some passed off the seemingly one-sided trade by claiming the Pats were cutting their former GM Scott Pioli—now Kansas City GM—a little slack, knowing that he had very little to give the Patriots in return. Others pointed to the fact that Belichick prefers second-round picks because he can sidestep having to pay the enormous contract that first rounders are accustomed to getting. But really, it was because Matt Cassel simply isn’t worth much more than a second round draft pick.
Matt Cassel was drafted in the seventh round by the Pats in 2005 for a reason: USC coach Pete Carroll didn’t start Cassel for a single game during his four-year career in Southern Cal. Cassel didn’t get to start any games during his college career for a reason: he is a mediocre quarterback. The numbers he put up during his 2008 campaign were not all that special. What got him so much attention was that no one expected the Patriots to do well at all without their superstar quarterback. Cassel’s 89.4 QB rating was good enough for tenth in the league, behind, among others, Matt Schaub of the Texans, Aaron Rodgers of the Packers, and Jeff Garcia of the Buccaneers. I don’t see teams licking their lips trying to sign 39 year-old Garcia to a $14 million, 1-year contract. Matt Cassel is a great story for sure. Having not started a single game since high school, he started all but one game for the Patriots, en route to a quality season. But how much of the team’s success was due to Cassel has been hugely over exaggerated.
The Patriots have the most QB-friendly team in the NFL; just about quarterback could find success with the New England O-line, WR corps, and passing game strategy. Three Patriots offensive linemen made the 2008 Pro Bowl, including two starters: Matt Light and Logan Mankins. No other team had more than one O-lineman make the roster. This brick wall of Pro-Bowlers gave Matt Cassel ample time in the pocket to find a wide receiver, one of whom is bound to get open at some point. Randy Moss is perhaps the best deep threat WR in the NFL. The fact that he drew a double team on almost every play created dream jobs for Wes Welker and Jabar Gaffney, who seemed to always be open. Finally, the New England-style offense boils the passing game down to mostly short 7 or 8-yard passes—a high percentage game for any QB. This simple, yet effective passing strategy, combined with the above-average defense and rushing attack, the legendary O-line, and arguably the best coach in all sports today are responsible for the Pats’ 11-5 season—not Matt Cassel.
Next year, Cassel will play for the Chiefs and will find that not all teams are as easy to play for as the Patriots. Last year, Kansas City finished with a 2-14 record, and only four teams scored fewer points. Their WR corps is among the worst in the league: last year, only two players had more than 400 receiving yards—one was Tony Gonzalez, whom they proceeded to trade to the Atlanta Falcons. So Cassel will be forced to rely almost exclusively on one receiver, third year starter Dwayne Bowe out of Louisiana State. Another obstacle Cassel will encounter is an average offensive line. The Chiefs do have Pro Bowl guard Brian Waters, but, after Cassel’s time in New England, the pass rush will seem to be on top of him before he can even catch a glimpse of his wide receivers getting owned by opposing backfields. Last year, the Tyler Thigpen was the Chief’s QB, and he failed to throw for more than 2,750 yards over the course of the season, good enough for a 76.0 passer rating.
Here’s what I see happening this year: Cassel will be the starter in week 1, continue to start until mid-season, where he will have completed no more than 60% of his passes, and Larry Johnson will have been the chief (no pun intended) producer on offense. When KC continues to struggle, Cassel will start to share time with former Alabama-star Brodie Croyle. Kansas City will finish the season 5-11, and Cassel will go on to sign with a team desperate for a QB and hopeful that Cassel will miraculously reproduce his 2008-2009 season with New England, which he owes entirely to his supporting cast.
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