Little Papi

David Ortiz set the Red Sox single-season home run record three years ago. You’d never know it, looking at him now:

· Lowest batting average of any starter on the Red Sox (3rd worst in the AL East)
· Only regular DH with 1 HR
· 7 pitchers have hit as many HRs as Papi
· On pace to strike-out 169 times, which only 4 players did last year
· Slugging percentage half of his previous six-year average

Through all these troubles, Terry Francona kept him in the three-slot in the batting order until yesterday. Fangraphs Baseball’s stat RAR (runs above replacement) indicates that, without Ortiz, the Red Sox would have scored an additional 9.4 runs this season, and won one additional game. Manager Terry Francona is often criticized for the excessive loyalty he has to his players, faith that they’ll reach their potential. Sometimes, this pays off: in 2007, Dustin Pedroia was batting .182 through March, but went on to win Rookie of the Year. I hope Francona isn’t waiting for that kind of turnaround with Papi, because it won’t happen. Pedroia was just a rookie in 2007; the first couple months of his big-league career are obviously going to be a little bit shaky. But Ortiz is a 13-year veteran. Whatever’s plaguing him this year is more than first-year jitters. So why is he still in the lineup day-in and day-out? I’d like to give him the benefit of the doubt, after winning the Solver Slugger Award four of the past five years and helping the Sox win two World Series in four years. But a three-month long slump? Come on, Papi.

It can’t be a mechanical issue. If it was, he would have fixed it by now. Major League teams hire droves of coaches that watch the players’ every at-bat, every pitch, ready to help them sort out any problems they might be having. But even in batting practice, Papi hasn’t shown the pop he’s had the past several years.

What few people are considering is Ortiz’s torn tendon sheath in his wrist. He suffered the injury last June, and it looked like it was going to need surgery. However, he passed up the surgery, saying at the end of the 2008 season “I’m just going to try to get my hand stronger, chill out for a minute, and come back ready to go like I know how next year.” He seemed sure of his decision then, but he might be regretting it now. Ortiz isn’t the type to excuse his performance by blaming an injury, so there’s no way to tell if it’s still bothering him.

Another explanation would be the departure of Manny Ramirez to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Without protection like Ramirez, Papi won’t be seeing as many pitches to hit. With Manny in the clean-up spot, pitchers had to go after Ortiz and try to get him out, afraid to face Ramirez with runners on base. That might have been true at first, when Manny first left the Sox. Pitchers could pitch around Ortiz, willing to walk him, while trying to make him swing at a bad pitch. But now, Papi is the one seeing good pitches. They’re not afraid to give Ortiz a pitch to hit, because he’s not much of a risk anymore. Now, even when Papi is seeing great pitches to hit, he still can’t find his swing.

Finally, one rumor that has been floating around is that Ortiz has stopped taking steroids. Remember that list of 104 players who had tested positive for steroids in 2003? A-Rod is the only name that has leaked out from that list. Some think Papi was on that same list, and quit juicing, when A-Rod’s name came out. One thing analysts have noticed about his swing is that it is missing the bat speed he had last year. Loss of muscle could explain why he’s only hit 1 HR and struggles to pull the ball, settling for opposite-field bloopers.

What sucks now is that his slump has gone on long enough that the Red Sox would be hard-pressed to find a team who would trade for the struggling DH—whose position was pretty much created for sluggers. Ortiz is under contract for this year and next year. Hopefully he’ll pick up his performance and the Sox will re-sign him in 2010