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Saturday, May 30, 2009

In the Wake of Wakefield

Since 1995, Tim Wakefield has been the most consistent, and one of the overall best pitchers in the MLB: he has the second-most wins of any pitcher, and has thrown more innings than anyone else. Yet, he has never made an All-Star game, and receives little attention. We’ll see what we can do to change that.

The knuckleball is probably the most misunderstood pitch in baseball. To an unfamiliar eye, one might wonder why in the world batters don’t park every single one of Wake’s floaters. But the knuckleball is perhaps the most effective pitch in baseball. Phil Niekro won 318 games with the pitch, and is now in the Hall of Fame. What nettles batters most about the knuckleball is that they pretty much know when it’s coming, but still can’t put the bat on the ball. It comes in going no more than 65 mph, looks like a juicy home-run ball, then either plummets, rises, or shifts to either side before the batter can swing. Like a magic trick, it’s there, and then it’s not.

Not only does this pitch baffle batters, but it puts the pitcher at such a small risk of injury. Niekro was able to pitch until he was 48, and Wake doesn’t plan on retiring anytime soon, either. Using the knuckleball, since Wakefield’s first full season all the way back in 1993, he’s started the second-most games of any pitcher, thrown the most innings, and been placed on the DL a mere three times. The simple fact is that the knuckleball puts so little stress on a pitcher’s arm that he can throw forever. Wilbur Wood, a knuckleballer for the White Sox, in 1973 pitched both ends of a double-header. He is the last pitcher to accomplish this feat of resilience.

But with Wakefield’s amazing career statistics, why does he receive so little attention? Wake owes most of his success to his incredible durability, rather than to a few all-star-worthy seasons. He’s never won more than 17 games in a single season, but has also had 7 seasons where he started at least 30 games. In the 1999 season, Wakefield made a transition that few pitchers could make. After a 17-win season in 1998, Wake was moved to the bullpen after Sox closer Tom Gordon injured his arm. He started 17 games before the switch; he went on to convert on 15 of 18 save opportunities. Wakefield is a trooper. He’s been with the Red Sox for 15 seasons, and has pitched 2,645 innings. (That’s equivalent to 293 complete games in 15 seasons, or 20 complete games per year.) Tim Wakefield is a long-distance runner, able to pitch consistently B/B+ seasons for his entire 16 season career. I would rather have a pitcher like Wake, who will be able to pitch well for long periods of time than a pitcher like Carl Pavano, who had two amazing seasons with the Marlins in 2003 and 2004, was voted to All-star Game in 2004, then was signed by the Yanks for $39 million dollars, only to win 9 games over 3 seasons, plagued with injuries. Red Sox Nation has been able to count of Wake for his 15 years in Boston.

When Wakefield’s contract expired in 2005, after winning 10 games in each of the last three seasons, fansgraphs.com calculated he would have been worth at least $6 million per year if he registered for free agency, probably more. However, Wake showed his dedication to Red Sox Nation, signing a $4 million per year “rolling” contract. This contract gives the Red Sox the option of resigning Wakefield every off-season for $4 million per year, for the rest of his career. Wake loves the Boston, and wants to retire with the Sox, whenever that may be.

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