Tim Wakefield didn’t pitch in Monday’s All-Star Game, and Joe Madden has slid a notch in my book. No, just being there isn’t a thrill for the 42-year old, no matter how much he might say it is. I was disgusted to see Wakefield relaxing in the bullpen with his feet up, while the AL closers came in to finish off the game. He’ll probably never get another chance to pitch in the All-Star Game, and the least Madden could have done is put him in for an inning just to throw the NL batters for a loop with his knuckleball. Most of them have never seen a knuckleball, and Wake has won three of the four games he started against NL teams. Mark Buehrle has decent stuff, but he’s basically Johan Santana in a White Sox uniform—nothing the NL isn’t used to seeing. And second of all, this was Buehrle’s fourth All-Star appearance, and in the 2005 Midsummer Classic, he threw two scoreless innings. I think he’s had his All-Star Game fill. Joe Madden must have known how much Red Sox Nation wanted to see the second-oldest first-time All-Star pitch, so why couldn’t he have let him thrown one freakin’ inning?
As an aside, we’ve been hearing about how Satchel Paige was the oldest first-time All-Star in Major League history, when he represented the St. Louis Browns on the American League team in 1952 at the ripe age of 46. In a rain-shortened game, he did not get a chance to pitch. However, the next year, he was again on the American League All-Star team, and he pitched an inning, while giving up three hits and two runs.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
A Look Back, and a Look Forward
Here we are, twilight of the 2009 All-Star Break. I’d like to take a moment to look back on how the standings looked at this time last year.
Let’s start with the AL. The improbable story of the 2008 Rays has grown all the more probable. Whereas last season, they stood atop the AL East virtually the whole year, today, they stand 6.5 games back of Boston in the East, good enough for third place. Right about where they belong. I get goosebumps just reminiscing about that ungodly situation for the BoSox. Chasing the Rays! Eesh! Glad that’s over. What I did like about last year’s AL East race was the Yanks finding themselves 12.5 games back of first place at the end of August. Today, they’re 3.0 back of Boston, even as their rotation and bullpen struggle mightily. I think 2008’s AL East was nothing more than a fluke. The Rays are back in the doghouse, and get used to seeing the Yankees in our rear view mirror. As for the AL Central, the Royals and Indians are in an even worse situation than last year’s combined .442 winning percentage at the break. This year, neither have won 40 games (two of the three AL teams to have less than 40 wins), and have a combined winning percentage barely over .400. Last year’s letdown season for the Tigers is no more—they’re now at the top of the division. However, that turnaround could also be accounted for by the struggles of Detroit’s main competition, the White Sox and Twins. Combined, they’re only three games over .500, and have basically handed the division to the Tigers, who have the worst record of any first place team in baseball. As for the West, the last time the Angles did not win the division was 2003, back when they were the Anaheim Angels. So it’s no surprise to see them atop the leaderboard there. The Rangers continue to progress, this year looking like a real contender for the first time in a long time. Even without Josh Hamilton for a large portion of the season, they’ve managed to keep the Angels honest, even leading the division as late as July 10th. Another change is in Oakland. Whereas last year they were seven games above .500, and second in the West, this year they are one of three AL teams to have less than 40 wins, and are 12.0 games back of first place.
The biggest shocker in the National League has to be in the NL West. At this time last year, the Diamondbacks were in the lead with a 47-48 record. It was the only division to not have a single team above .500. (Every other division had three teams with at least .500 records.) Yet this year, it is arguably the best division in baseball. Colorado has the median number of wins: 46—which is the best median record in the National League. The Dodgers have the best record in baseball, and San Francisco and Colorado are the top contenders in the Wild Card race. Turning to the Central, last year the Cubbies had the best record in baseball, and had the division locked up, leading St. Louis by 4.5 games. This year, with no team ready to step up and make a run for it, it’s a toss-up: five—count ‘em five—teams are within 4.5 games of the lead, and St. Louis is currently at the top, but with the worst record of any first place team in all of baseball. The West went from being the worst division in baseball to the best, and the Central has gone from one of the best divisions to one of the worst. In the NL East, the story has to be the not-so-Amazin’s. The Mets are under .500 by four games, and are ahead of only the Nationals in their division. At this time last year, they were in the hunt, only .05 games behind the Phillies. And other than the struggles of the injury-stricken Mets, the NL East standings are pretty stable compared to last year. Florida’s youth keeps them competitive, and the Braves are regaining some respect after their 14 consecutive playoff appearance streak came to an end in 2006.
Last year, only one team that led its division at the All-Star Break lost that lead by the end of the season. This year, I don’t think any will. The only change I predict by the end of the season will be the American League Wild Card: the Yankees will fall out of first place, and the Rangers will make the playoffs for the first time since 1999. They start the second half with 12 of 15 games at home, which should get them off to a great start. They’re potent offense led by Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, and Josh Hamilton, along with a reliable bullpen will power them past the heavy hitters in NY. In the NL Wild Card, the starting rotation in San Francisco will fend off the Rockies, who are nipping at their heels, and all the league leaders will remain the same as the season continues.
Let’s start with the AL. The improbable story of the 2008 Rays has grown all the more probable. Whereas last season, they stood atop the AL East virtually the whole year, today, they stand 6.5 games back of Boston in the East, good enough for third place. Right about where they belong. I get goosebumps just reminiscing about that ungodly situation for the BoSox. Chasing the Rays! Eesh! Glad that’s over. What I did like about last year’s AL East race was the Yanks finding themselves 12.5 games back of first place at the end of August. Today, they’re 3.0 back of Boston, even as their rotation and bullpen struggle mightily. I think 2008’s AL East was nothing more than a fluke. The Rays are back in the doghouse, and get used to seeing the Yankees in our rear view mirror. As for the AL Central, the Royals and Indians are in an even worse situation than last year’s combined .442 winning percentage at the break. This year, neither have won 40 games (two of the three AL teams to have less than 40 wins), and have a combined winning percentage barely over .400. Last year’s letdown season for the Tigers is no more—they’re now at the top of the division. However, that turnaround could also be accounted for by the struggles of Detroit’s main competition, the White Sox and Twins. Combined, they’re only three games over .500, and have basically handed the division to the Tigers, who have the worst record of any first place team in baseball. As for the West, the last time the Angles did not win the division was 2003, back when they were the Anaheim Angels. So it’s no surprise to see them atop the leaderboard there. The Rangers continue to progress, this year looking like a real contender for the first time in a long time. Even without Josh Hamilton for a large portion of the season, they’ve managed to keep the Angels honest, even leading the division as late as July 10th. Another change is in Oakland. Whereas last year they were seven games above .500, and second in the West, this year they are one of three AL teams to have less than 40 wins, and are 12.0 games back of first place.
The biggest shocker in the National League has to be in the NL West. At this time last year, the Diamondbacks were in the lead with a 47-48 record. It was the only division to not have a single team above .500. (Every other division had three teams with at least .500 records.) Yet this year, it is arguably the best division in baseball. Colorado has the median number of wins: 46—which is the best median record in the National League. The Dodgers have the best record in baseball, and San Francisco and Colorado are the top contenders in the Wild Card race. Turning to the Central, last year the Cubbies had the best record in baseball, and had the division locked up, leading St. Louis by 4.5 games. This year, with no team ready to step up and make a run for it, it’s a toss-up: five—count ‘em five—teams are within 4.5 games of the lead, and St. Louis is currently at the top, but with the worst record of any first place team in all of baseball. The West went from being the worst division in baseball to the best, and the Central has gone from one of the best divisions to one of the worst. In the NL East, the story has to be the not-so-Amazin’s. The Mets are under .500 by four games, and are ahead of only the Nationals in their division. At this time last year, they were in the hunt, only .05 games behind the Phillies. And other than the struggles of the injury-stricken Mets, the NL East standings are pretty stable compared to last year. Florida’s youth keeps them competitive, and the Braves are regaining some respect after their 14 consecutive playoff appearance streak came to an end in 2006.
Last year, only one team that led its division at the All-Star Break lost that lead by the end of the season. This year, I don’t think any will. The only change I predict by the end of the season will be the American League Wild Card: the Yankees will fall out of first place, and the Rangers will make the playoffs for the first time since 1999. They start the second half with 12 of 15 games at home, which should get them off to a great start. They’re potent offense led by Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, and Josh Hamilton, along with a reliable bullpen will power them past the heavy hitters in NY. In the NL Wild Card, the starting rotation in San Francisco will fend off the Rockies, who are nipping at their heels, and all the league leaders will remain the same as the season continues.
Sunday, July 12, 2009
Midsummer Classic Preview
Here are my picks for the 2009 MLB All-Star Game at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri.
1. The finals of the Home Run Derby will be Detroit’s catcher-turned-third-basemen-turned-power hitter, Brandon Inge, against San Diego’s first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. These two contestants have the highest HR/2B ratio in the competition. To me, this stat shows that, given a pitch in their strike zone, they’re not going to hit a double because they have the strength and athleticism to hit it out of the park. Since they’re not going to get anything out of their strike zone on Monday, they won’t be hitting any balls to the wall; just homers.
2. Adrian Gonzalez will win the Home Run Derby. He’s tied for the second-most HRs in all of baseball, and has been a consistent power hitter throughout his career. He’s missed one game the past three seasons, so with a day of rest he’s not accustomed to, he will be fresher than ever. At 27, he’s in the best shape of his career. He’s on pace to shatter his career high 36 home runs, and picked up his first stolen base of his career early this season. He’s on a cold streak, picking up only four home runs since the start of June, but I think he’ll find his power stroke by Monday.
3. Tim Lincecum will start the All-Star Game for the NL. Last year’s NL Cy Young Award winner will only be asked to throw a couple innings, he’ll be able to give it all he’s got for 30 pitches or so. Come Tuesday, Lincecum will have a full five days of rest and will be ready to throw. NL leader in wins, Jason Marquis, pitched yesterday, so he’d be coming off two day’s rest, which is not enough time to fully recover. Lincecum is an enthusiastic youngster, who will be pumped up to represent his league; so he’ll put forth more of an effort than a veteran like Johan Santana might. He leads the NL by almost twenty strikeouts with 149, and his unorthodox delivery might trouble some American Leaguers. Critics say he'll have a short career because of his strenuous wind-up, so one would hope he'll be able to take advantage of his oppertunities while he can. Honorable mention: Chris Carpenter—when he’s healthy, there’s no one better. A Cardinal, he’d get a friendly welcome from his fans in St. Louis. He missed an entire month with a rib injury, but he has a WHIP under .90, which you seldom see from a starter, and has an ERA under 2.50. It’s a shame the injury bug has plagued this one-time Cy Young winner for essentially his whole career.
4. Zack Greinke will start the All-Star Game for the AL. Early this year, we saw what this 25-year old is capable of: through his first 6 starts, he had 6 wins with an ERA of 0.40, 54 Ks against just 8 walks. When Greinke’s on, he’s virtually unhittable. Three years ago, he missed considerable amounts of time after being diagnosed with social anxiety disorder and depression, and to start in the All-Star Game this year would really be a great story. He has faltered a bit recently, but I would too if I figured out I could go six innings, with six strikeouts and one walk, give up two runs, and come up with the loss. The only thing Greinke’s done wrong this season is pitch for the Royals. They have scored the second fewest runs in the Majors this year (under four per game), which means Greinke needs to be utterly perfect in order to pick up a win. He has the lowest ERA in the AL, and has 10 wins. Ten wins is respectable, but if Wakefield can pick up 11 wins with a 4.31 ERA, imagine how many Greinke would have if he were pitching for an offense like the Red Sox. Wins can be deceiving, as they are dependent on how much run support a pitcher gets. Greinke is first in the AL in ERA and HR allowed, and is second in Ks, BBs, and WHIP.
1. The finals of the Home Run Derby will be Detroit’s catcher-turned-third-basemen-turned-power hitter, Brandon Inge, against San Diego’s first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. These two contestants have the highest HR/2B ratio in the competition. To me, this stat shows that, given a pitch in their strike zone, they’re not going to hit a double because they have the strength and athleticism to hit it out of the park. Since they’re not going to get anything out of their strike zone on Monday, they won’t be hitting any balls to the wall; just homers.
2. Adrian Gonzalez will win the Home Run Derby. He’s tied for the second-most HRs in all of baseball, and has been a consistent power hitter throughout his career. He’s missed one game the past three seasons, so with a day of rest he’s not accustomed to, he will be fresher than ever. At 27, he’s in the best shape of his career. He’s on pace to shatter his career high 36 home runs, and picked up his first stolen base of his career early this season. He’s on a cold streak, picking up only four home runs since the start of June, but I think he’ll find his power stroke by Monday.
3. Tim Lincecum will start the All-Star Game for the NL. Last year’s NL Cy Young Award winner will only be asked to throw a couple innings, he’ll be able to give it all he’s got for 30 pitches or so. Come Tuesday, Lincecum will have a full five days of rest and will be ready to throw. NL leader in wins, Jason Marquis, pitched yesterday, so he’d be coming off two day’s rest, which is not enough time to fully recover. Lincecum is an enthusiastic youngster, who will be pumped up to represent his league; so he’ll put forth more of an effort than a veteran like Johan Santana might. He leads the NL by almost twenty strikeouts with 149, and his unorthodox delivery might trouble some American Leaguers. Critics say he'll have a short career because of his strenuous wind-up, so one would hope he'll be able to take advantage of his oppertunities while he can. Honorable mention: Chris Carpenter—when he’s healthy, there’s no one better. A Cardinal, he’d get a friendly welcome from his fans in St. Louis. He missed an entire month with a rib injury, but he has a WHIP under .90, which you seldom see from a starter, and has an ERA under 2.50. It’s a shame the injury bug has plagued this one-time Cy Young winner for essentially his whole career.
4. Zack Greinke will start the All-Star Game for the AL. Early this year, we saw what this 25-year old is capable of: through his first 6 starts, he had 6 wins with an ERA of 0.40, 54 Ks against just 8 walks. When Greinke’s on, he’s virtually unhittable. Three years ago, he missed considerable amounts of time after being diagnosed with social anxiety disorder and depression, and to start in the All-Star Game this year would really be a great story. He has faltered a bit recently, but I would too if I figured out I could go six innings, with six strikeouts and one walk, give up two runs, and come up with the loss. The only thing Greinke’s done wrong this season is pitch for the Royals. They have scored the second fewest runs in the Majors this year (under four per game), which means Greinke needs to be utterly perfect in order to pick up a win. He has the lowest ERA in the AL, and has 10 wins. Ten wins is respectable, but if Wakefield can pick up 11 wins with a 4.31 ERA, imagine how many Greinke would have if he were pitching for an offense like the Red Sox. Wins can be deceiving, as they are dependent on how much run support a pitcher gets. Greinke is first in the AL in ERA and HR allowed, and is second in Ks, BBs, and WHIP.
Curse of the HR Derby?
Nowadays, you'll hear players cop out of the HR Derby, claiming that, "it messes up your swing", or something along those lines. I don't see how three rounds of swinging for the fences (essentially a televised round of BP) can pull the plug on the rest of your season, right? Let's find out. Here's what the past nine HR Derby champions have done before and after the Derby.
SAMMY SOSA-2000
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 86 103 23 74 97 .305 .574
post-HR Derby 70 90 27 64 71 .338 .711
LUIS GONZALEZ-2001
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 87 103 26 66 43 .342 .674
Post-HR Derby 75 95 31 76 40 .308 .701
JASON GIAMBI-2002
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 86 100 22 71 63 .318 .602
Post-HR Derby 69 76 19 51 49 .309 .593
GARRET ANDERSON-2003
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 92 117 22 78 48 .316 .597
Post-HR Derby 67 84 7 38 35 .313 0.463
MIGUEL TEJADA-2004
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 85 107 15 75 28 .311 .506
Post-HR Derby 77 96 19 75 45 .311 .566
BOBBY ABREU-2005
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 89 99 18 58 65 .307 .526
Post-HR Derby 73 69 6 44 69 .260 .411
RYAN HOWARD-2006
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 84 88 28 71 97 .278 .582
Post-HR Derby 75 94 30 78 84 .355 .751
VLADIMIR GUERRERO-2007
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 85 101 14 75 32 .325 .548
Post-HR Derby 65 85 13 50 30 .323 .546
JUSTIN MORNEAU-2008
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 95 118 14 68 55 .323 .512
Post-HR Derby 68 69 9 61 30 .267 .481
Only three times did a batter's statistics change noticeably following their victory at the Derby (±3 HR ±.20 BA, in the same direction). One of these times (Sammy Sosa), both numbers increased. Furthermore, I wouldn’t give much thought to Morneau’s drop in numbers, since, throughout his 7-year career, his 1st half hitting numbers are far better than his second half numbers—his 1st half HR total nearly doubles his 2nd half’s, and his BA is 32 points higher before the All-Star break compared to after it. That leaves Abreu as the sole culprit; the only proof that superstitious players have that participation in the HR Derby creates glitches in your swing, and ruins the rest of the season. However, by citing Sosa’s improvement after his Derby victory, Abreu’s drop in offense is basically null and void. One player’s numbers shot up, while another’s plummeted—not a very convincing case. So what is it that has influenced notorious HR hitters like Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez to decline a chance to participate in the HR Derby? Probably arrogance. They don’t want to get shown up by someone whom they consider a lesser hitter. This will sound totally off the mark in Manny’s case, but those sluggers who refuse to put on a show on the eve of the All-Star Game must be taking the game way too seriously. In 1999, when Sosa was asked about his poor showing after the Derby’s first round, he told sideline reporter Stuart Scott that he didn’t care, it doesn’t matter since he was just out there to have a good time. Who could forget Big Papi’s role as towel boy, wiping the sweat away from, and bringing Gatorade to whomever is at bat? That’s what it’s all about. It’s not about winning and defining your legacy. Who’s going to remember if Manny got eliminated after round one of the HR Derby, then went 0-2 in the midsummer classic? Probably no one. So, if you look at the data, there’s virtually no reason anyone should refuse a chance to win the HR Derby.
http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=3183612
SAMMY SOSA-2000
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 86 103 23 74 97 .305 .574
post-HR Derby 70 90 27 64 71 .338 .711
LUIS GONZALEZ-2001
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 87 103 26 66 43 .342 .674
Post-HR Derby 75 95 31 76 40 .308 .701
JASON GIAMBI-2002
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 86 100 22 71 63 .318 .602
Post-HR Derby 69 76 19 51 49 .309 .593
GARRET ANDERSON-2003
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 92 117 22 78 48 .316 .597
Post-HR Derby 67 84 7 38 35 .313 0.463
MIGUEL TEJADA-2004
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 85 107 15 75 28 .311 .506
Post-HR Derby 77 96 19 75 45 .311 .566
BOBBY ABREU-2005
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 89 99 18 58 65 .307 .526
Post-HR Derby 73 69 6 44 69 .260 .411
RYAN HOWARD-2006
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 84 88 28 71 97 .278 .582
Post-HR Derby 75 94 30 78 84 .355 .751
VLADIMIR GUERRERO-2007
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 85 101 14 75 32 .325 .548
Post-HR Derby 65 85 13 50 30 .323 .546
JUSTIN MORNEAU-2008
G H HR RBI SO BA SLG
Pre-HR Derby 95 118 14 68 55 .323 .512
Post-HR Derby 68 69 9 61 30 .267 .481
Only three times did a batter's statistics change noticeably following their victory at the Derby (±3 HR ±.20 BA, in the same direction). One of these times (Sammy Sosa), both numbers increased. Furthermore, I wouldn’t give much thought to Morneau’s drop in numbers, since, throughout his 7-year career, his 1st half hitting numbers are far better than his second half numbers—his 1st half HR total nearly doubles his 2nd half’s, and his BA is 32 points higher before the All-Star break compared to after it. That leaves Abreu as the sole culprit; the only proof that superstitious players have that participation in the HR Derby creates glitches in your swing, and ruins the rest of the season. However, by citing Sosa’s improvement after his Derby victory, Abreu’s drop in offense is basically null and void. One player’s numbers shot up, while another’s plummeted—not a very convincing case. So what is it that has influenced notorious HR hitters like Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez to decline a chance to participate in the HR Derby? Probably arrogance. They don’t want to get shown up by someone whom they consider a lesser hitter. This will sound totally off the mark in Manny’s case, but those sluggers who refuse to put on a show on the eve of the All-Star Game must be taking the game way too seriously. In 1999, when Sosa was asked about his poor showing after the Derby’s first round, he told sideline reporter Stuart Scott that he didn’t care, it doesn’t matter since he was just out there to have a good time. Who could forget Big Papi’s role as towel boy, wiping the sweat away from, and bringing Gatorade to whomever is at bat? That’s what it’s all about. It’s not about winning and defining your legacy. Who’s going to remember if Manny got eliminated after round one of the HR Derby, then went 0-2 in the midsummer classic? Probably no one. So, if you look at the data, there’s virtually no reason anyone should refuse a chance to win the HR Derby.
http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=3183612
Saturday, July 11, 2009
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