A Look Back, and a Look Forward

Here we are, twilight of the 2009 All-Star Break. I’d like to take a moment to look back on how the standings looked at this time last year.

Let’s start with the AL. The improbable story of the 2008 Rays has grown all the more probable. Whereas last season, they stood atop the AL East virtually the whole year, today, they stand 6.5 games back of Boston in the East, good enough for third place. Right about where they belong. I get goosebumps just reminiscing about that ungodly situation for the BoSox. Chasing the Rays! Eesh! Glad that’s over. What I did like about last year’s AL East race was the Yanks finding themselves 12.5 games back of first place at the end of August. Today, they’re 3.0 back of Boston, even as their rotation and bullpen struggle mightily. I think 2008’s AL East was nothing more than a fluke. The Rays are back in the doghouse, and get used to seeing the Yankees in our rear view mirror. As for the AL Central, the Royals and Indians are in an even worse situation than last year’s combined .442 winning percentage at the break. This year, neither have won 40 games (two of the three AL teams to have less than 40 wins), and have a combined winning percentage barely over .400. Last year’s letdown season for the Tigers is no more—they’re now at the top of the division. However, that turnaround could also be accounted for by the struggles of Detroit’s main competition, the White Sox and Twins. Combined, they’re only three games over .500, and have basically handed the division to the Tigers, who have the worst record of any first place team in baseball. As for the West, the last time the Angles did not win the division was 2003, back when they were the Anaheim Angels. So it’s no surprise to see them atop the leaderboard there. The Rangers continue to progress, this year looking like a real contender for the first time in a long time. Even without Josh Hamilton for a large portion of the season, they’ve managed to keep the Angels honest, even leading the division as late as July 10th. Another change is in Oakland. Whereas last year they were seven games above .500, and second in the West, this year they are one of three AL teams to have less than 40 wins, and are 12.0 games back of first place.

The biggest shocker in the National League has to be in the NL West. At this time last year, the Diamondbacks were in the lead with a 47-48 record. It was the only division to not have a single team above .500. (Every other division had three teams with at least .500 records.) Yet this year, it is arguably the best division in baseball. Colorado has the median number of wins: 46—which is the best median record in the National League. The Dodgers have the best record in baseball, and San Francisco and Colorado are the top contenders in the Wild Card race. Turning to the Central, last year the Cubbies had the best record in baseball, and had the division locked up, leading St. Louis by 4.5 games. This year, with no team ready to step up and make a run for it, it’s a toss-up: five—count ‘em five—teams are within 4.5 games of the lead, and St. Louis is currently at the top, but with the worst record of any first place team in all of baseball. The West went from being the worst division in baseball to the best, and the Central has gone from one of the best divisions to one of the worst. In the NL East, the story has to be the not-so-Amazin’s. The Mets are under .500 by four games, and are ahead of only the Nationals in their division. At this time last year, they were in the hunt, only .05 games behind the Phillies. And other than the struggles of the injury-stricken Mets, the NL East standings are pretty stable compared to last year. Florida’s youth keeps them competitive, and the Braves are regaining some respect after their 14 consecutive playoff appearance streak came to an end in 2006.

Last year, only one team that led its division at the All-Star Break lost that lead by the end of the season. This year, I don’t think any will. The only change I predict by the end of the season will be the American League Wild Card: the Yankees will fall out of first place, and the Rangers will make the playoffs for the first time since 1999. They start the second half with 12 of 15 games at home, which should get them off to a great start. They’re potent offense led by Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, and Josh Hamilton, along with a reliable bullpen will power them past the heavy hitters in NY. In the NL Wild Card, the starting rotation in San Francisco will fend off the Rockies, who are nipping at their heels, and all the league leaders will remain the same as the season continues.