1. The finals of the Home Run Derby will be Detroit’s catcher-turned-third-basemen-turned-power hitter, Brandon Inge, against San Diego’s first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. These two contestants have the highest HR/2B ratio in the competition. To me, this stat shows that, given a pitch in their strike zone, they’re not going to hit a double because they have the strength and athleticism to hit it out of the park. Since they’re not going to get anything out of their strike zone on Monday, they won’t be hitting any balls to the wall; just homers.
2. Adrian Gonzalez will win the Home Run Derby. He’s tied for the second-most HRs in all of baseball, and has been a consistent power hitter throughout his career. He’s missed one game the past three seasons, so with a day of rest he’s not accustomed to, he will be fresher than ever. At 27, he’s in the best shape of his career. He’s on pace to shatter his career high 36 home runs, and picked up his first stolen base of his career early this season. He’s on a cold streak, picking up only four home runs since the start of June, but I think he’ll find his power stroke by Monday.
3. Tim Lincecum will start the All-Star Game for the NL. Last year’s NL Cy Young Award winner will only be asked to throw a couple innings, he’ll be able to give it all he’s got for 30 pitches or so. Come Tuesday, Lincecum will have a full five days of rest and will be ready to throw. NL leader in wins, Jason Marquis, pitched yesterday, so he’d be coming off two day’s rest, which is not enough time to fully recover. Lincecum is an enthusiastic youngster, who will be pumped up to represent his league; so he’ll put forth more of an effort than a veteran like Johan Santana might. He leads the NL by almost twenty strikeouts with 149, and his unorthodox delivery might trouble some American Leaguers. Critics say he'll have a short career because of his strenuous wind-up, so one would hope he'll be able to take advantage of his oppertunities while he can. Honorable mention: Chris Carpenter—when he’s healthy, there’s no one better. A Cardinal, he’d get a friendly welcome from his fans in St. Louis. He missed an entire month with a rib injury, but he has a WHIP under .90, which you seldom see from a starter, and has an ERA under 2.50. It’s a shame the injury bug has plagued this one-time Cy Young winner for essentially his whole career.
4. Zack Greinke will start the All-Star Game for the AL. Early this year, we saw what this 25-year old is capable of: through his first 6 starts, he had 6 wins with an ERA of 0.40, 54 Ks against just 8 walks. When Greinke’s on, he’s virtually unhittable. Three years ago, he missed considerable amounts of time after being diagnosed with social anxiety disorder and depression, and to start in the All-Star Game this year would really be a great story. He has faltered a bit recently, but I would too if I figured out I could go six innings, with six strikeouts and one walk, give up two runs, and come up with the loss. The only thing Greinke’s done wrong this season is pitch for the Royals. They have scored the second fewest runs in the Majors this year (under four per game), which means Greinke needs to be utterly perfect in order to pick up a win. He has the lowest ERA in the AL, and has 10 wins. Ten wins is respectable, but if Wakefield can pick up 11 wins with a 4.31 ERA, imagine how many Greinke would have if he were pitching for an offense like the Red Sox. Wins can be deceiving, as they are dependent on how much run support a pitcher gets. Greinke is first in the AL in ERA and HR allowed, and is second in Ks, BBs, and WHIP.
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