SOTD: Teams Left in NFL

Of the four remaining teams in the playoffs...

1. Three teams play home games in a dome
2. Two teams have rookie head coaches
3. Three quarterbacks had regular season passer ratings of over 100 and completion percentages higher than 68%
4. Two quarterbacks were top 5 draft picks; two were 2nd round picks
5. Four quarterbacks were born in Southern states (Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, SoCal)

Conference Championships Predictions

This one’s a no brainer for me. Here’s five reasons the Saints will beat the Vikings.

1.Drew Brees against a Minnesota pass defense ranked 24th in opponent passer rating. Come on, you do the math. Another reason I have reason to reason Brees will have a big game: Drew Brees averages 310 pass yards per game in eight home games this season. In their past four away games (GB, ARI, CAR, CHI), the Vikings have allowed an average of 286 pass yards. Brees will tear it up against a sub-par Vikings secondary.

2.The key to the Vikings’ win against the Cowboys was the pressure they got on Tony Romo (6 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 1 interception). In home games the past two years, Drew Brees has been sacked multiple times only three times, and has thrown multiple picks only twice. Against Dallas today, Romo was sacked for 42 yards—this season, the Saints are sacked for an average of less than 8.5 yards per game.

3.Adrian Peterson hasn’t rushed for 100 yards since November 15. In fact, since then, he’s averaged only 66 yards per game. Minnesota can’t expect Brett Favre to win this game single-handedly.

4.In their first postseason game, the Saints rushed for 170 yards and passed for 247 with an almost 50:50 run:pass play ratio. That’s what the Saints were doing for the first 13 games of the season when they were unstoppable. I think that their Week 15 loss to the Cowboys (the only one I really care about—the rest were meaningless) can be attributed entirely to the fact that the Saints rushed the ball only 7 times, while passing it 29 times. Look for another balanced attack that will keep the Vikings D on its heels.

5.I don’t think any team could have used a first-round bye week more than the Saints. In the first 11 games of the season, the Saints outscored their opponents 407-221. In the last five games of the season—coming at the end of a stretch of 12 straight games, they were outscored 103-120. Now, after an off week, the Saints have reestablished their dominance, scoring three times as many points as the Cardinals in their first playoff game. When the Saints are rested and Sean Payton and Gregg Williams—who make the best coaching tandem in the NFL—have time to prepare their players, the Saints cannot be beat.



I’ve severely underestimated the Jets. Rex Ryan is really becoming one of the best coaches in the NFL. After he beat the Colts, I felt the Jets were getting lots of unwarranted hype. But since then, they’ve won three games against teams that I honestly thought would run all over them. I really liked the Bengals, and everyone liked the Chargers, but the Jets played them tough, and here they are in the conference championship. I still think the Colts will win, but I’ve become a believer in the Jets.

1.Mark Sanchez sucks, and the Jets have no confidence in him. No team has made fewer pass attempts this season than the Jets, and his past six games, he’s averaged 20 pass attempts per game. The Colts defense may not be the best in the league, but if the Jets do nothing but run the ball, the Colts will be ready.

2.The Jets have a rookie running back, a rookie quarterback, and a rookie head coach. Yes, all three have surpassed our expectations so far, but none have played in this type of capital “b” Big game. And Peyton Manning has. He’s won a Super Bowl, he’s been Super Bowl MVP, and he has almost twice as many pass yards in his 16 playoff games than Mark Sanchez does in his entire career. No one manages the game better than Peyton Manning, and he will lead the Colts to a victory.

3.The Jets have been so successful because Darrelle Revis has been able to shut down big name receivers like Chad Ochocinco and Vincent Jackson—the marquis receiver of their respective teams. Who is the marquis receiver for the Colts? Reggie Wayne? Maybe. But Dallas Clark has just as many receptions and just as many TDs. So who do the Jets think Revis will cover next week? He can cover anyone he wants, and he’ll probably shut that single down. But the fact remains that no quarterback is better at spreading the ball around than Peyton Manning. He throws to whomever is open, and he’ll complete it 99% of the time—well, really 69%, but you know what I mean. Austin Collie, Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon are all targets of Manning, and he does not discriminate. Revis will without a doubt take one receiver out of the game for one play at a time. But after that, Manning still has options.

4.Here’s what the Jets have going for them: they’re on a roll, having won four in a row—all against playoff teams—by a combined 64 points; they beat the Colts by two touchdowns less than a month ago (notice I’m leaving out the part about Peyton being benched after 1 half); the Colts defense is nothing special, especially against the rush: they allow 124 rush yards per game, 22nd in the NFL; the Jets defense is far and away the best in the NFL—1st in opponent completion percentage, pass yards, pass TDs, passer rating, and passing first downs; they just beat the hottest team in the NFL, the Chargers, in San Diego; the Colts have a rookie head coach, and Peyton Manning has only won one playoff game without Tony Dungy at the helm (it came last weekend). Those are considerable advantages, and I’m totally throwing out the Jets. They definitely have a chance to win…I just don’t think they will.

5.My fifth thing to think about, coming into this game is Peyton Manning. He’s having arguably the best year of his career this year, and has only been sacked 10 times—hence, he’s ready to play. You think he’s ready to lose to the Jets for the second time this season? I didn’t think so.

Round Two Picks, Confidence 4

This game is really a tossup for me. I don’t know which Viking team we’re going to see. Will it be the Vikings that beat the Giants by 37 points in the last game of the regular season; or the Vikings who, just six days prior, gave up 36 points and lost to the Chicago Bears? Minnesota is a great team: their offense is loaded with weapons from Percy Harvin to Sidney Rice to Adrian Peterson to Brett Favre; in fact, Minnesota scored more points than any team in the NFL except the Saints. However, the Dallas defense is H-O-T hot. In their last three games, they’ve allowed a total of 14 points, 45 rush yards per game, 3.7 sacks per game, and 3 third down conversions per game (which is below their NFL-leading season average of 4.2 per game). The one thing Minnesota has going for them is Brett Favre. It didn’t work for him down the stretch in 2008: last season, after starting 8-3 with the Jets, he lost four of his last five games and NY did not qualify for the playoffs. This season, he’s made more pass attempts than he did last season, and I’m not sure how his arm will hold up this weekend. But in 2009, Favre achieved a passer rating, interception total, pass yard total, and touchdown total in the top three of his career. At home, his numbers are off the charts: his passer rating of 118.1 is incredible. And if the Cowboy defense has one hole, it’s the passing game. They’re below the league average in opponent passer rating and opponent passing yards per game. So if Brett Favre can bring his A game, the Vikings will have a serious chance at a win. In Dallas’s five losses this season, the opposing quarterback averages 255 yards through the air; while in those same five games, only one team ran for a hundred yards, and the leading rusher on the opposing team averaged 53.4 YPG. If the Cowboys can hold Adrian Peterson to 53.4 yards, there’s no way Brett Favre can pull together a game good enough for the Vikings to win.

On the other side, the Dallas offense is balanced: Tony Romo behind center is having a career year, all three backs—Marion Barber, Tashard Choice, and Felix Jones—have the potential to break out a twenty yard run at any point during the game, and with a receiving corps of Miles Austin, Jason Witten, and Roy Williams, the Minnesota D will have their hands full. The Vikings have accumulated the second-best point differential in the NFL, and they should put up a fight against Dallas. What the game will come down to is the advantage that each team has over the other: The Vikings home field advantage: Favre has been lights out at Mall of America Field, and has not lost a game there all season. The Cowboys have better chemistry and they have momentum: the Vikings haven’t had chemistry since training camp, when Favre admitted that he did not have the support of the locker room; plus, don’t forget Chad Childress and Brett Favre’s recent power struggles. The ‘Boys have won their last four games, outscoring their opponents 96-28; their defense (especially DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer) looks unstoppable; and Tony Romo is finally playing great.

In the end, the game will hinge of Brett Favre. If he throws for 300 yards, they’ll have a chance of winning. If not, the Cowboys will move on.

Round Two Picks, Confidence 5

I like the Ravens, I really do. They played the Colts very close in Week 11, losing 17-15; they match up well against Indy. Manning’s home passer rating is worse than his away rating, Indy has a rookie head coach, an inexperienced receiving corps, and they essentially threw their final two games. On the Ravens side, they showed what they're capable of last Saturday in Foxboro, forcing four Brady turnovers, scoring 24 points in the first quarter, holding the Patriots to under 200 total yards and 14 points, and accumulating only 15 penalty yards. Ray Rice and Willis McGahee have become a two-pronged attack that no defense wants to see. You might say that Joe Flacco has encountered somewhat of a sophomore slump, throwing for fewer than 200 yards eight times this season (including a whopping 34 in last week’s game against the Patriots). But really, why throw and risk turnovers (Colts average a pick a game) when you have some of the best running backs in the NFL? I wouldn’t call it a sophomore slump, I’d call it being judicious. In their past two games, Rice and McGahee have rushed for a combined 458 yards. The Ravens have one of the best rushing attack in the NFL, and they’ll be going up against a Colts defense that allows just as many rush yards as the Detroit Lions. In fact, New England was ranked 13th in run defense this season, allowing 110 yards on the ground per game: Baltimore’s 221 rush yards doubled what the Pats D averaged this season. They’ll live and die by their rushing attack this weekend in Indy, as Flacco won’t be throwing the ball all that much against the Colts, whose D surrenders just a little more than 200 pass yards per game. In the end, though, I just can’t pick against Peyton Manning in the playoffs at home. Manning has had a career year this year, throwing for 4,500 yards for just the second time in his career, and completing a higher percentage of his passes than ever before. The only reservation I have is how sitting for three straight weeks will affect him, but I’ve got to believe he’ll come out strong.

Other Happenings in Sports

There’s no doubting that Pete Carroll built one of the greatest college football teams ever. From 1996-2001, the Trojans were 37-35. Pete Carroll took over in 2001, and since then USC has a record of 86-18. But there’s no way Carroll will experience success anywhere near that in Seattle. College football dominance is based on recruiting. Hence, Pete Carroll could recruit better than anyone. Unfortunately for him, coaches in the NFL don’t recruit. I think Seahawks owner Paul Allen recognized the pro-style offense Carroll ran in SoCal, and plans on him being able to run a similar offense in Seattle. He’ll do that, for sure. But Pete Carroll just won’t have the talent he did when he was at USC. If you gave me the choice between Matt Barkley or Matt Hasselbeck, I’d take Matt Barkley. Until the Seahawks bring in better players, they can look forward to some more 5- or 6-win seasons over the next couple of years. What’s more significant in this story is that Carroll’s replacement will be former Oakland Raiders and Tennessee Volunteers football coach Lane Kiffin. When news of Carroll’s departure first surfaced, everyone wondered how USC could ever survive. Here’s how. Tennessee head coach Lane Kiffin was the offensive coordinator at USC from 2001-2006, and will now be the top dog in Southern Cal. Also making the switch from Tennesse to USC are Carroll’s father and defensive guru Monte Kiffin, as well as the recruiting director there, Ed Orgeron. I really don’t think USC is left with a net loss at the end of all this (as long as they’re not slapped with any NCAA violations.) The fact that Lane Kiffin coached in the NFL and in the SEC will probably be a significant draw for future recruits; the fact that Lane Kiffin loves the spotlight will probably mean he’ll enjoy Southern California; and the fact that USC started only eight seniors last year means that Kiffin will have a lot of talent to work with. In five years, USC will have won one national championship, and the Seahawks will have had one winning season.

Just real quick, Mark McGuire came clean about steroids. I don’t care. I don’t care when you took them, why you took them, or what effects you claim they had on you. You used steroids and gave yourself an unfair advantage that skewed your natural ability—how much of McGuire’s success was natural, and how much does he owe to PEDs? “Grading” a user’s press conference is bull shit. Giambi used, A-Rod used, Pettite used, and Manny used. All these players had different excuses and, in many cases, they’re all perceived by fans in different ways based on how they admitted to steroid use. And that is preposterous. Anyone who has ever taken steroids should be treated the same.