The $103 Million Arm Losing Stock

We were all perplexed, looking at the bounty of pitching Sox GM Theo Epstein has been able to assemble, and we have wondered what to do, what to do. With the recent struggles of Daisuke Matsuzaka, Terry Francona’s proposed problem probably became much less of a predicament. He has put Daisuke, the ace of the 2008 season, on the 15-day DL. This will be Matsuzaka’s second stint on the DL this season: he was put on the DL early this year with “arm fatigue”. I just don’t understand what Dice-K’s problem is in American ballparks. The Red Sox spent $51 million just to enter negotiations with the Japanese star, and went on to sign this Scott Boras client to a six-year $52 million contract. Now, Daisuke doesn’t really seem to be worth the $103 million shelled out by the Boston front office. This season, he hasn’t pitched more than 5½ innings in a game, and has an 8.23 ERA. But at the time, it’s hard to blame Theo for thinking Matsuzaka might be the next Pedro. On the cover of Sports illustrated in March ’07, Tom Verducci wrote of the Japanese phenom,

“What strikes you now about Matsuzaka, once you get beyond the knowing countenance, is that after all that throwing, never did he bother to ice his arm or shoulder. In major league locker rooms, ice packs are ubiquitous appendages for pitchers, who wrap their shoulder or elbow or both, the better to calm muscles, ligaments and tendons that have been stressed by the unnatural act of throwing a baseball. Relievers are known to ice after facing only one batter in a game.

Not Matsuzaka. He didn't ice after he threw 103 pitches in the bullpen the second time he stepped on a mound in spring training in 2007, more than twice the number of even the heartiest of his fellow Red Sox pitchers. He didn't ice after one of his twice-weekly 20-minute long-toss sessions, when he throws from the rightfield foul pole to the leftfield wall -- a distance of about 300 feet -- while taking only one step to load his arm. (Most pitchers throw half that distance.) In past years with the Seibu Lions, he wouldn't ice even after his frequent 300-pitch bullpen sessions, a program that would have been grounds for dismissal for any major league pitching coach who allowed it.

Then you reflect on the 250 pitches he threw in a 17-inning complete game in high school -- the apex of a stretch in which he threw 54 innings in 11 days -- and the 189 pitches he threw on Opening Day in 2003, the 160 pitches in his second start of the '05 season, the 145 pitches in his penultimate start for the Lions, the 588 innings he threw for Seibu before he turned 21 (Oakland ace Rich Harden, 25, still hasn't logged that many big league innings) and the eight games last year in which he threw at least 130 pitches -- more such games than all major league pitchers combined.”
Not to mention, he’s been MVP of the previous two World Baseball Classics (2006 and 2009).

However, he hasn’t been able to duplicate the success he’s had pitching for Japan here in America. I bet it’s the conservativeness of Major League trainers and pitching coaches. Francona assumes Daisuke, like all other pitchers, tires right around 100 pitches, and so he feels the need to yank him when he gets near that number. The unfortunate thing is, with Daisuke’s tendency to nibble around the strike zone and throw gobs of pitches per inning, we see Terry jog out to pull him in the middle of the fifth inning, even if he’s pitching well. On June 2, Daisuke was pulled after 5 innings, even though he had only given up one run and had struck out 6, just because he had thrown 96 pitches. If he wants to go 9 innings and throw 200 pitches, let him, no matter how unorthodox and risky it seems. When Francona put Matsuzaka on the disabled list this week, he said, “this is not going to be a two-week DL”, hinting that it looks like it could be much longer than that. What worries the Sox isn’t anything structural, it’s arm weakness. The cause of this weakness is clear to me though, and rest won’t help. Daisuke isn’t accustomed to MLB’s unconditional limits on how much a pitcher can throw. He’s used to throwing all the time, and as much as he wants. Since he’s come to Boston, they’ve told him he can’t do that. It’s like telling a marathoner he can’t run more than one mile each day: he’s going to get out of shape. The Red Sox staff’s attempts to save Daisuke’s arm have been counterproductive, and have affected the weakness in his throwing arm. If the Sox want to help Daisuke find his form, they shouldn’t treat his arm like some antique Rolls Royce. They should treat it like a brand new Porsche, and push down on that throttle with all you’ve got.