Yesterday, the St. Louis Cardinals traded for Indians' infielder Mark DeRosa. The main purpose of this deal is to get some protection for slugger Albert Pujols, who is making a bid to become the first NL Triple Crown winner since 1937. He leads the NL in HR (28) and RBI (74), and is eighth in BA (.328). But the Cards' acquisition of DeRosa reveals the very problem that will keep Pujols from winning the Triple Crown any time soon: he has no help in the St. Louis lineup. Other than Pujols, there's really no one a decent pitcher should have any trouble dealing with. Only one batter (other than Albert) has double-digit home runs, two (other than Albert) have 30 RBI, and the highest slugging percentage (other than Albert) is .442. DeRosa will take third base from struggling Joe Thurston (.230 BA). However, I can't see DeRosa posing so much a threat to NL pitchers. With the Indians this year, he's been hitting .270 with 13 HR--just about what he's done his whole career. Sooner or later, NL pitchers will learn to pitch around The Machine in order to get to people like Chris Duncan, Cody Rasmus, Jason LaRue, and now, Mark DeRosa. They're simply not that good. Once pitchers figure out that giving Pujols the Bonds Treatment is the best solution, his RBI and HR numbers will drop. His average will likely remain high, but a batting title, for sure, is not the same as a Triple Crown.
Who we should really be thinking about as a Triple Crown candidate is Jason Bay. He has the protection that Pujols lacks; Boston is one of most prolific offenses in the MLB, scoring 390 runs through 74 games, and he's having a breakout year playing in Beantown. He leads the AL in RBI (69), is third in HR (19), and he does have some ground to cover in BA (.278, #40--not impossible). If you look at the HR leaders in the AL, though, they're sure to cool off before Bay does. Mark Texeira (20 HR) is on a hot streak after a dreadful start to the season, and who knows when he'll start to slump again. Carlos Pena of the Rays hadn't hit more than 27 HR until the 2007 season; with a batting average of .238 this season, it will be hard for him to continue to hit bombs at his current rate (23 so far). Jason Bay, on the other hand, is part of the best lineup in baseball: in the cleanup spot, he has reigning MVP Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury batting .301 this year, David Ortiz who is finally heating up, and AL OBP leader Kevin Youkilis batting around him. With that supporting cast, Bay won't have to bear the pressure of carrying his team, something Pujols faces on a daily basis. PItchers will also be forced to pitch to Bay--pick your poison of the venomous Sox batting order. Bay will keep driving in runs with Pedroia and Youk pretty much always on base, and he's been consistently hitting home runs throughout the year, so if he can work is average up to rival Ichiro's (easier said than done), he could very well become the first AL Triple Crown Winner since fellow Red Sock Carl Yazstremski.
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his average is too low. pujols wont win it but neither will bay
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